FootballOutsiders has published their 2018 Buccaneers projections. Some interesting stuff:
1) 2017:
i. Predicted wins: 6.74
ii. Snap-weighted roster age: 15th
iii. Average opponent: 6th
iv. Offense DVOA: 11th
v. Defense DVOA: 32nd
vi. Special Team DVOA: 29th
2) 2018 Projections
a. 7 wins
i. For context, FO has been quite accurate in predicting Bucs win totals
b. Projected 2018 opponent: 3rd
c. 22.3% odds of making the postseason
3) Winston vs. Mariota
a. Winston had a better season than Mariota, setting career-bests in comp%, INT%, YPA, passer rating, passing yards/game, passing DYAR, passing DVOA, and led the league with lowest % of failed completions.
b. Was not a great season for Winston, but better than Mariota’s
c. The difference in perceptions between the two is Winston’s fault, he has problems and can’t stop with stupid behavior
4) Winston and NFC South
a. One of the reasons Winston isn’t more appreciated (beyond his myriad off-field problems) is that he plays in the most elite division in football with the overall best QBs: all the NFCS have either won a Super Bowl or been league MVP in the last few years.
b. In some respects Winston and Newton are similar QBs:
i. both hold onto the ball a long time, take lots of hits because of hit, seek to push the ball aggressively downfield, are sometimes quite erratic with their throws and benefit from tall WRs
ii. They have two of the highest off-target throws among active starters since 2015
iii. Winston’s 2017 passing DYAR of 70 would be a career high for Newton (who’s high is 630)
- Interesting, 61% of Winston’s career passing DYAR is on passes to Evans (that’s a LOT)
c. So why has Newton been to playoffs 4/5 years? Panthers have a better team around him and only need to rely on marginal passing production.
5) Why doesn’t Winston’s elite first-downs per pass attempt not correlate with more elite QBing?
a. Perhaps because “first downs per pass attempt” doesn’t factor in sacks, which Winston causes more of (but his sack rate is respectable)
b. Likely answer is because he’s so aggressive in pushing the ball – it’s a strength but also a major weakness, it also results in extra contact
c. Perhaps hits are accumulating, Winston had a great QBR under pressure his first two seasons, but was bad last year ranking 23rd
d. Winston has most passing yards/TDs before 24, but he also (by a lot) has the most pass attempts over everyone (except Bledsoe)
e. Related note, they’re predicting a slight regression for Winston in 2018
6) Redzone
a. Bucs under Winston/Koetter have been very good at getting yards, but bad at scoring points
b. Winston needs to be better in the redzone
c. But number one culprit is lack of a running game
i. where do you need to run the ball? 3rd and short and in the red zone
7) Run Blocking
a. Bucs OL was actually average in run-blocking last year (but it was terrible in 2016, seeing the most stuffed runs in the NFL)
b. In 2017 the team struggled in 2nd level (31st) and open field yards (30th)
i. The thinking is that the OL is responsible for getting the RB to the 2nd level and the RB is responsible after that. Martin and Sims were the worst offenders.
ii. Barber was the best back (by a lot), but still was not very good
8) Overall Defense
a. Mike Smith’s Atlanta defense finished 29th and 32nd his last two years
b. Bucs defense ranked 28th in “adjusted games lost on defense” to injuries
9) Pressure & Sacks
a. Never mind the fewest sacks, the Bucs had the worst pressure rate (26%) in the league
i. It’s even worse because 9 of 22 sacks were “non pressure sacks” where the DL didn’t get any pressure but got a sack (as in a coverage sack or if a QB tripped)
ii. Also 6 of those sacks were against McCown who has the 2nd worst sack rate among active QBs
b. Bucs only blitzed on 19% of plays (6th lowest rate)
c. Bucs only pressured 2 QBs (Hundley & Tyrod) over 30% of the times
i. By contrast Eagles were over 30% for 11/19 QBs they faced
d. Bucs had 32nd pressure rate in 1st and 4th quarters, and were bottom-5 in 2nd and 3rd
i. So Bucs pass rush was non-existent entire game
e. Why did the Bucs draft Vea if he can’t rush the passer?
10) Secondary
a. Bucs secondary is bad
b. Even when the Bucs D got pressure, they still performed as the worst defense in the league
i. So the problem is not just pressure, the rest of the team was very bad
11) Offense Personnel Stats
a. Bucs were in 11 personnel (62%) and 12 personnel (22%) the majority of the time
b. The Bucs worst grouping (by fa) was 21 personnel (2 RBs, 1 TE) which they only ran 3%
c. Bucs struggled the most against Base personnel (where they ran the ball 56%), but they primarily saw Nickel (60%)
d. Bucs ran less 2-TE sets than 2016
e. Bucs suck at YAC, 29th in 2017 and 32nd in 2016
i. Bucs are also the worst at breaking tackles
f. Bucs ran the ball from shotgun 2nd least (to Arizona)
12) Defense Personnel Stats
a. Bucs only ran Base (36%) and Nickel (62%)
b. Base defense performed worse than Nickel
c. Bucs had the league-low in defensive penalties
13) Strategy Stats
a. Ran 35% in first half, and 45% on first down (which Nobody has demonstrated is further skewed by 3 games)
i. Bucs ran less often in every situation vs. 2016
b. To remind us that winning team run (NOT running teams win), the Bucs ran 26% when behind in the 2nd Half and 52% when ahead
c. Ran Play action on 21% of plays (ranks 22nd)
d. Bucs saw an above-average stacked box (21st)
e. Bucs rushed 4 on 77.3% of plays, rushed 5 on 12.1% and 6+ on 6.9%
14) Offense Personnel Analysis
a. Quite negative on Jensen: “When you have someone who was only good enough to win a starting job once in five years for one of the worst offenses in the league, you just have to make him the highest paid player at his position.”
i. This will look worse too because Flacco gets the ball out fast, Winston is slow
b. Although overall the offense did well in pass protection, D Smith ranked 33rd
i. He allowed a team high 7.5 sacks in 2017
ii. Per FO at his current performance Bucs should release him in 2018
c. Funny quote on Licht & Cappa: “General manager Jason Licht has said that Cappa could eventually play all five positions on the offensive line, which sounds like nice GM code for “we don’t know how we’ll develop this college kid.””
d. Dotson is by far the Bucs best OL over last two years
15) Defense Personnel Analysis
a. Bucs pressure rate was 0.1%-0.4% better than 2016 and 2015 (which was terrible)
b. Kwon Alexander had more broken tackles (24) than anyone by a lot
c. Interestingly Ayers and McCoy had the same number of QB hurries (26.5)
d. In a number of stats Ryan Smith out-performed VH3 last year, although they ranked 62 & 76th, respectively (although VH3 was much better against the run)
e. FO is rough on Evans rookie year vs. the run and pass
16) Special Teams
a. Murray had 2 kicks returned for TDs last year, entire league had only 5 combined
b. Bucs haven’t had a punt or kick return TD since 2010 (longest active drought)
c. Anger had a bad year, but coverage unit was good
