The Ravens punted on 4th and 3 from their own 38. Super Bowl winning HC Harbaugh, with the 3rd highest winning percentage of active coaches, said this:
“If it’s fourth-and-3, if you don’t get it, they’re in field goal range,” Harbaugh said Sunday. “So, I think punting it is probably what most people would do there.”
ESPN Analytics DISAGREED saying 8.1% better chance to win if they go for it.
So . . GO FOR IT or punt?
Now, about that ESPN Analytics -- what if your very mobile QB and number one weapon . . wasn't mobile anymore?
"Why is a lot being made about that? But anyways, I was actually cramping the drive before that,” Jackson said, via video from Sarah Ellison of Ravens Vault. “The turnover [a fumble by Derrick Henry] happened. But I went to the sideline, and if anybody paid attention to me, I was drinking pickle juice on the sideline already. I was like, ‘I need to get hydrated, like I’m cramping. I’m starting to feel cramps.’ Then, we went back out there, and obviously fourth-and-3 happened. But if I wasn’t cramping, we definitely would have went for it. We definitely would have went for it, I believe.”
Harbaugh holds a lead like a fork holds water
Harbaugh holds a lead like a fork holds water
I assume you are in the GO FOR IT column?
Whatever he's doing, it is consistently not working.
But yes I'd say go for it for 2 reasons.
1.) Henry and Jackson
2.) they had 3 time outs
Harbaugh holds a lead like a fork holds water
I assume you are in the GO FOR IT column?
Whatever he's doing, it is consistently not working.
But yes I'd say go for it for 2 reasons.
1.) Henry and Jackson
2.) they had 3 time outs
Its a great football topic because its part of the evolution of the game and it ouches on one point that is of interest to me and that is the use of "analytics."
When PFF arrived, many football fans used their grades as "truth," not seemingly understanding that their grade were/are subjective. The same thing happens now with 4th down analytics. a number says you go for it becomes truth, but with ZERO understanding of the basis for the number or even what the number means. In this instance though we have a perfect illustration fo the problem with that approach because, according to both Jackson and Harbaugh, Jackson was struggling to run with cramps. Where one believes that or not, it is OBVIOUSLY a variable that matters (you raise it yourself in #10 but even more obviously it is a variable that is NOT accounted for in the ESPN Analytics model that is used to make the argument that there is am 8.1% of success in going for it.
How does ESPN's model make its decisions? It incorporates the score of the game, distance to gain, yard line, clock, timeouts, pregame win probability and the relative strength of the offense and defense on the field.
That variable may not be enough to change the analytics - although its 1(a) in your own reasoning - but the point is that it IS information at the decision-makers disposal.
Not saying Harbaugh's decision was right/ Only saying that treating an analytic model as truth is wrong. Its one of many factors in a total judgment call.
Harbaugh holds a lead like a fork holds water
I assume you are in the GO FOR IT column?
given the context of that game being a shootout. yeah, i say go for it. you dont get it, you hope they score quickly and get the ball back
now if the score was 20-18, a different story but being that defense was not a thought in that game, you knew Buffalo would get points either way giving the ball back to them.
Yes I can see that.
would be interesting to hear the coaching chatter happening in advance of that choice.