Agreed. I also don’t think the coach has much to do with causing injuries or execution of plays (that’s the talents responsibility). Getting guys to hang together in adversity, while also making sure his coaching staff has been getting their units to play above their heads.Fair points but personnel is one thing... I'm just strictly saying the talent to begin this year, regardless of Bowles endorsing it, is still the talent. He's finally getting the most out of the talent he has and keeping offenses off balance.
He's by no means sold me on the season but he's owed some props imo.
If he keeps it up and Grizz figures it out, we are a legit contender.
I think winning while playing 1st place schedules negates the soft NFC South argument. It complicates drafting, because you’re constantly having to add significant talent while picking in the middle of each round. That’s mostly on Licht, who I believe has done a good job the past few years.
Grizz is somewhat stunted because of how the injury limitations haven’t allowed him to open up the playbook. Maybe that will pay off as some of the offensive talent gets back in the field, but it has also allowed him to see how to put the personnel in place to win, despite not having perfect protections/personnel groupings.
I’m interested to see if this staff can come up with the ability to navigate playoff wins. That’s the next step.
It complicates drafting, because you’re constantly having to add significant talent while picking in the middle of each round. That’s mostly on Licht, who I believe has done a good job the past few years.
AMEN
The exact point I have made about our edge rushers (and just had to make again about Hall).
The easiest way to get a game wrecking edge is to LOSE. If you dont lose such that you have a PREMIUM pick and you want to draft someone it becomes a REAL LONGSHOT. I think the success rate with a 1st rounder is something like 60% and then it drops into the 25% range in the 2nd round, so when you draft a DIABY in the THIRD, having him become a STARTER who contributes 8-10 sacks is a win. There are obvious exceptions (Crosby), but no one is going to pile up Super Bowl trophies drafting edge rushers in round 4. Thats why Licht went out and got JPP and Barrett and Suh . . .and even then NINE sacks came from Bowles/White blitzes.
Licht has done an INCREDIBLE job.
Not always. He's learned and part of that is MISSES, but if you just look at what he SPENT to win a Super Bowl it hardly set the team back, RELATIVELY SPEAKING . . and so the team has gone on to win division champs etc. WITH GUYS LIKE HALL .. and Diaby (credit to Bowles)
FWIW, our former versatile edge JTS is barely a ST player for the Browns, let alone a contributing edge. Thats a MISS, but many first pick post Super Bowl are and who would the Bucs have taken as an alternative?
Christina Barmore is the next DL taken but he is INTERIOR and we are "running it back" with the same team -- Suh and Vea.
I see a write up that says we could've taken interior offensive lineman Landon Dickerson. GREAT IN HINDSIGHT, but theres no way we are taking him when we are "running it back" and we have Jensen, Marpet and Cappa
Call JTS the cost of the 2021 ands 2022 "run it back" effort!
CONTEXT
The Bucs are rushing one less play per game on average as compared to this time last year BUT the YPS is 2.1 YPC lower. We are basically running at Rachad White's career average(3.8) so Line issues and no Bucky loom large
Leaving about 50 Yds of offense on the table
Due to offensive line injuries, the run game with Bucky wasn’t very good, even before his injury took him off the active roster.The Bucs are rushing one less play per game on average as compared to this time last year BUT the YPS is 2.1 YPC lower. We are basically running at Rachad White's career average(3.8) so Line issues and no Bucky loom large
Leaving about 50 Yds of offense on the table
Looking for news on Goedeke and Bucky…but not expecting to hear anything. Those two until/unless the team starts practicing next week.
FWIW, our former versatile edge JTS is barely a ST player for the Browns, let alone a contributing edge. Thats a MISS, but many first pick post Super Bowl are and who would the Bucs have taken as an alternative?
Christina Barmore is the next DL taken but he is INTERIOR and we are "running it back" with the same team -- Suh and Vea.
I see a write up that says we could've taken interior offensive lineman Landon Dickerson. GREAT IN HINDSIGHT, but theres no way we are taking him when we are "running it back" and we have Jensen, Marpet and Cappa
Call JTS the cost of the 2021 ands 2022 "run it back" effort!
CONTEXT
I'm just not a fan of making this excuse. JTS was never a good prospect. He was also a reach. Hall wasn't a reach but he traded back for a guy that played upright and was a tweener between edge and DT.
There were better prospects all around and yes it is Captain Hindsight but it doesn't change the fact that Licht went for need instead of BPA and they were massive whiffs.
The end of the first/early second is an ideal place to grab a secondary player or LB. Think of a player like Fred Warner or Lavonte David at LB. You get immense value and return...
You don't get return on a LB in the top 10. Licht hasn't been drafting late, he's been draft later LATELY.
He had a top 10 pick and went LB instead of edge..that's a bad strategy.
So he zigging when he should have zagged so to speak.
Then he goes and takes Trask with a second when historically there are ALMOST ZERO 2nd round pick success stories (Brees and Jackson were taken early second and late first respectively) and the data suggests it is a no brainier to pass on QBs in the 2nd.
So my gripe isn't about missing it's HOW Licht misses.
I'm just not a fan of making this excuse. JTS was never a good prospect. He was also a reach. Hall wasn't a reach but he traded back for a guy that played upright and was a tweener between edge and DT.
There were better prospects all around and yes it is Captain Hindsight but it doesn't change the fact that Licht went for need instead of BPA and they were massive whiffs.
Well, if the CONTEXT is an "excuse" then what is the absence of context? Misleading, right?
"Bowles wanted Hall" is demonstrably FALSE. FULL STOP. END OF STORY. He (and the team) wanted the picks. Hall was just the last one left of a group . .. and the strategy yielded Hall and Goedeke (and arguably Otton). Not bad, but if one was to criticize it would be not that Hall was a bad evaluation, it would be that the trade back was flawed . . but was it?
Maybe the JTS pick, but again the flaw there is really a NEED pick because of the Super Bowl. Even Licht called it a "flyer." Not sure its that it is AS blameworthy in the CONTEXT of running it back, thats why I even asked who the alternative would be?
You go on to make this academic point that I agree with:
The end of the first/early second is an ideal place to grab a secondary player or LB. Think of a player like Fred Warner or Lavonte David at LB. You get immense value and return...
That is the correct strategy BUT play along. .
Now you have Tom Brady. You just won a Super Bowl. You're gonna run it back, but even if you sign all your FAs back some of them, like JPP, might not make the full journey. Do you do what is best for the team long-term ("end of the first/early second is an ideal place to grab a secondary player or LB") or do you do what gives you the best chance to win now?
We don't have Tom Brady, we are only 6-2. The Red Board might give up two first round picks for an edge rusher!! I doubt Licht does that, but you're actually criticizing him now for coming as close to that approach as maybe ever. NEED drafting that GAINED THEM PICKS that became Goedeke and Otton.
HOW Licht misses.
How Licht missed on Hall was to get Hall, Goedeke and Otton
How Licht missed on JTS was to take a flyer based on NEED. You're saying you draft a DB or LB with the JTS pick? Which one? If not one of those position then who?
That would at least be a genuine disagreement because there would be some alternative option. Without an alternative option, its more just stamping your feet. and stamping your feet at a SB winning, five division winning GM whose homegrown team is 6-2
I think Biggs at least said Karalaftis (the Chiefs were on lol). Karalaftis was IN the Hall trade back group, right? So the difference there is Karalaftis versus Hall, Goedke (and maybe Otton). I can see that even if I dont agree . . but only if Biggs admits he was wrong about Bowles wanting Hall lmao (kidding, OF COURSE . .never happening)
Its an interesting discussion because, like most discussions here, its sort of not quite as it seems when you dig into it. Everything is usually in between the two opinions. But facts are still facts and it is a fact they got Hall as part of a trade back for picks not because Bowles wanted him over, say, Karalaftis . . or some DB or LB
Context is necessary when reviewing how we ended up with specific picks.
Would have liked to have gotten Karlaftis, but would you do that at the expense of Goedeke and Otton…? That’s a tough one.
Context is necessary when reviewing how we ended up with specific picks.
Would have liked to have gotten Karlaftis, but would you do that at the expense of Goedeke and Otton…? That’s a tough one.
Yes and that is my point in saying that its interesting to think about because we are considering now with the benefit of hindsight that Karlaftis is quite a player. But, if you consider the moves -- all with benefit of hindsight - the correct equation is not K or H.
It is K or H, G and O.
You can make the same kind of hindsight analysis with Fire's comment about JTS. It could be JTS or yet unnamed DB or LB.
We know now with the benefit of hindsight that JTS did NOT develop into a productive player (the "flyer" Licht took) AND the immediate "need" of JPP or Barrett getting injured occurred, but not to the point that either missed substantial time, as I recall, SO in hindsight the NEED part of the equation was off BUT who was the "unnamed DB or LB," again with the full benefit of hindsight?
If you consider either move in the REAL WORLD SENSE (as opposed to "H or K") neither is ON THEIR FACE a horrific miss as portrayed.
And then, if you are bring it back to REAL TIME so no hindsight . . . Licht comes out looking pretty decent because the 2021 team went 13-4, the 2022 team made the playoffs and then we continued division wins from there, WITH H, G and O being key parts
I'm just not a fan of making this excuse. JTS was never a good prospect. He was also a reach. Hall wasn't a reach but he traded back for a guy that played upright and was a tweener between edge and DT
I would argue Hall (consensus #45 but drafted 33rd overall) was even more of reach than JTS, who was consensus #39 but drafted 32nd overall.
And yes, all of these are excuses for poor draft evals of the defensive players being discussed. The notion that the HC/DC didn't sign off on the player the team drafted first, who was a defensive selection, is comical. Poor Todd Bowles had Logan Hall thrust upon him, along with Devin White, JTS, and Calijah Kancey.
Context is necessary when reviewing how we ended up with specific picks.
Would have liked to have gotten Karlaftis, but would you do that at the expense of Goedeke and Otton…? That’s a tough one
Having Karlaftis doesn't necessarily mean you lose Goedeke and Otton. Those players still could have been drafted by Tampa Bay, without trading out of R1. That may - or may not - have required other trades.
Goedeke worked out but Otton will be a journeyman TE. He's not bad but he's not good/elite and never will be.
I believe he's improved his blocking but it's still a weakness of his.
You could insert Culp and get similar production.
How Licht missed on JTS was to take a flyer based on NEED. You're saying you draft a DB or LB with the JTS pick? Which one? If not one of those position then who?
Depends if we wanted BPA, need, or depth
Need: there's nothing good at edge around there.
BPA: Jevon Holland was an easy pick. Landon Dickerson or Tyson Campbell
Depth: any of the o-line picks. Dickerson, Myers or Humphrey. You cannot go wrong with depth at o-line.
You certainly don't reach for a project edge player to compete for a second chip. You certainly don't draft a backup QB.
What's also annoying is that in the third he took fucking Hainsey so he saw the need for o-line depth but prioritized a backup QB first!
Then in the 4th he gets a fucking punt returner.
So like I said it's HOW he approached that draft.
Then the next year he trades or of the first and takes arguably the worst player within 20 picks of him in either direction. That late first and early second was absolutely LOADED with talent but instead he reaches again at d-line for a dude who's tape did not look good.
Did anybody like this pick? Turned a first round pick into d-line depth which you can do later in the draft.
Misses on so many prospects including Devin Lloyd whom I loved which also filled a need.
Could have grabbed an elite RB in Walker or Breece Hall instead of paying Fournette to come in 20 pounds overweight.
I don't mind White in the third but again he sees the need at RB and instead of going for an elite talent he waits and gets a solid player.