Jameis Winston -- not Prescott or Mariota -- is the best young quarterback in the NFL
By: Steven Ruiz | November 28, 2016 9:43 am
NFL Media analyst and former pro scout Daniel Jeremiah ran a Twitter poll last week asking voters to pick the young quarterback they would choose to build a team around. The choices were Dak Prescott, Marcus Mariota, Carson Wentz and Jameis Winston.
It wasn’t much of a surprise that Prescott finished first. He’s put up the best numbers, and the Cowboys have one of the bigger fan bases in the NFL. It was surprising, however, that Winston, the most hyped quarterback prospect since Andrew Luck, finished in last place with only 12% of the vote.
Daniel Jeremiah ✔ @MoveTheSticks
Our poll question of the day-- Which QB would you choose to build your team around?
9:54 AM - 21 Nov 2016
46%Prescott
15%Wentz
12%Winston
27%Mariota
44,219 votes • Final results
Winston should have finished at the top of that list. Not only has he shown off a skillset more refined than Mariota, Prescott and Wentz have, but he’s also the youngest of the four — by a full year. Because Winston has been in the spotlight for so long, it’s easy to forget that he’s only 22. He should be a senior in college. Instead, he’s carrying an undermanned team to a winning record and doing so in an offense built for a veteran quarterback.
Winston’s raw numbers are not overly impressive. His quarterback rating is sitting just below the league average. His completion percentage is sitting just over 60%. And only three quarterbacks have thrown more interceptions.
But evaluating quarterbacks from a purely statistical standpoint is a flawed practice. There are just too many factors outside the control of the quarterback himself contributing to those numbers. A passer’s statline is not just a reflection of the player — it’s a reflection of the pass protection, the play-calling and the receivers catching the passes.
Winston has always been a playmaker, but the knocks against him have been his low completion percentage and high turnover numbers. In order to properly interpret those numbers, you have to take into account what the Buccaneers are asking him to do.
In short, Tampa is asking a lot of its young quarterback, in terms of both volume and degree of difficulty. Winston has attempted near 200 more passes than Mariota has through two seasons. Coming into the weekend, he led the league in average pass length, according to the NFL’s in-house stat keeping. At the same time, only Luck has been pressured on a higher percentage of dropbacks than Winston, per Football Outsiders.
Quick recap: Winston is being asked to carry the Bucs offense on his back and make the toughest throws in the NFL with some of the worst pass protection you will find in the league.
Considering all that, it’s remarkable that Winston is anywhere close to producing a league-average statline. And that’s not even taking into account how young he is. Only one quarterback who has started multiple games this season is younger than Winston: Jared Goff.
If you watch Winston play, it’s shocking that he is so advanced given his age. Quarterbacks that young are not supposed to be this poised in the pocket.
He has an innate ability to feel pressure and has the spatial awareness to avoid it and navigate the pocket while keeping his eyes downfield. This is the kind of pocket play you expect from guys like Tom Brady, Philip Rivers and Drew Brees, not some 22-year-old kid who was just thrown in the deep end and expected to swim from the start of his career.
That presence in the pocket is a big reason why Winston has taken fewer sacks and performed better than Mariota despite facing more pressure, according to ESPN.com:
Despite being pressured at a much higher rate, Winston has been sacked at a far lower rate than Mariota, 4.9 percent to 6.9 percent. When under pressure, Winston completes a higher percentage of passes than Mariota, and he has thrown an interception on 1.6 percent of his attempts, compared with 3.7 percent for Mariota. Winston’s Total QBR when under pressure is 64.6 for his career, the highest among qualified quarterbacks in that span. Mariota is at 16.5, which ranks 28th.
Another reason is Winston’s ability to anticipate his receivers coming open. First- and second-year passers typically need to see a receiver get open before releasing a pass. Not Winston. His ability to read coverages allows him to to get rid of the ball before the receiver even gets into his break.
On the play above, Winston subtly steps to the side as a free rusher approaches and starts his throwing motion before Cameron Brate turns around. That’s a sack for about 90% of Winston’s peers. He avoids it by knowing the coverage and knowing how to beat it within a matter of seconds.
Winston’s youth does show up a handful of times per game. He’ll make at least one mind-boggling decision per game. He’ll also miss some throws due to wonky footwork. But you live with these mistakes because (a) he’s a young quarterback doing things some veterans haven’t figured out and (b) these are the kinds of issues that hard-working quarterbacks clean up with more experience. Winston is still about five years away from hitting his prime. If he’s still throwing inexplicable interceptions and sailing throws in in two season, then those are legitimate concerns. Until then, it’s just nitpicking.
(Winston’s turnover problems are overblown, anyway. The 22-year-old has combined for 39 interceptions and fumbles in 27 career games, or 1.44 per game. Mariota — who plays a more conservative brand of football — has combined for 35 in 24 career games, or 1.45 per game. If Winston has a problem protecting the football, then so does Mariota.)
In addition to all of his talent, Winston’s leadership abilities — which don’t matter unless you can play (sorry, Tebow) — are beyond rare. The dude was born to be a quarterback.
The Buccaneers have no running game. Outside of Mike Evans, you can’t name another receiver on the active roster. The defense is giving up 24 points a game. Despite all that, Winston has led the Buccaneers to a 6-5 record and has pulled them within a half-game of the final Wild Card spot in the NFC after upsetting the Seahawks on Sunday. What else would you expect from the best young quarterback in the league?
