I can't speak for FRG, but yeah, I think that's right. Obviously you have to pay attention to what other teams "might" do - that matters when you are contemplating trades - but you have to trust your own evaluations of players. My world would work like this - let's say player X is the highest guy on your board, and he ranks a 7.0. Most mocks have him getting drafted a whole round later. If you have 5 guys at 6.9 you might trade down 6 spots assuming that you could at least get one of those guys if the 7.0 was gone. But what if the next tier of guys is 6.5? I wouldn't trade down from the 7.0 hoping that the Kipers of the world were right. As for D-Jax, I don't remember anything definitive being reported, but I thought I remember that we were panicked by the run on WRs. I'm guessing he wasn't as high as that on our board.
Manziel, IF he has a OC/HC that will set up plays correctly for him, the sky is the limit. He's only going to be held back by someone trying to change him drastically.
Forget about Manziel. No respectable scout says he is anything more than a 2nd round pick.Listen to Cosell and that is exactly what the problem is going to be. He just can't function as a QB in the NFL right now. Maybe he'll get better and be able to stand in the pocket very consistently but it's a gamble to pick a guy to do something he's never been able to do so far. I believe Jdub said it well when he said that the progression of the college and NFL game is such that guys are much more advanced earlier on and are pretty much what they are early on in their career. He's just not a pocket passer and according to Cosell, doesn't seem to understand his own offense and routinely doesn't throw on time to open receivers. That is not a recipe for success in the NFL.
BucNY, could you explain that one a bit more? btw, interesting series on drafting with the Carolina GM (Gettlemen). http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/01/27/4644649/carolina-panthers-gm-dave-gettleman.html#.UufD4BAo4wF
yeah, I just did. Sorry
BucNY, could you explain that one a bit more? btw, interesting series on drafting with the Carolina GM (Gettlemen). http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/01/27/4644649/carolina-panthers-gm-dave-gettleman.html#.UufD4BAo4wF
Very interesting point on college WRs and the 20 hour rule that I don't see a lot of people picking up on...
BucNY, could you explain that one a bit more? btw, interesting series on drafting with the Carolina GM (Gettlemen). http://www.charlotteobserver.com/2014/01/27/4644649/carolina-panthers-gm-dave-gettleman.html#.UufD4BAo4wF
Very interesting point on college WRs and the 20 hour rule that I don't see a lot of people picking up on...
Yeah that 20-hour rule is something that I notice every once in awhile. It's one reason I downplay the complexity of the Tedford offense - complex for whom? Someone with 20 hours a week to work on it?
Good comments! Another factor on where a team ranks a guy on their draft board is when a team is already established, they are looking for a specific skill to fit into their team's scheme. A team may have been looking at only one aspect of players' total skillset, already having guys who were just as good at other skills he had. That would lower his value to them. To another team, those other skills may have been lacking on the team, which increases the rookie's rating on their board.
Forget about Manziel. No respectable scout says he is anything more than a 2nd round pick.Listen to Cosell and that is exactly what the problem is going to be. He just can't function as a QB in the NFL right now. Maybe he'll get better and be able to stand in the pocket very consistently but it's a gamble to pick a guy to do something he's never been able to do so far. I believe Jdub said it well when he said that the progression of the college and NFL game is such that guys are much more advanced earlier on and are pretty much what they are early on in their career. He's just not a pocket passer and according to Cosell, doesn't seem to understand his own offense and routinely doesn't throw on time to open receivers. That is not a recipe for success in the NFL.
I'm on the fence myself as to how good he'll be, but I'm confused by this. First of all, Gil Brandt, Daniel Jeremiah, and Russ Lande are among the few actual ex-scouts doing punditry. They all have him in the top 10, with Brandt calling him the best prospect in the draft. Rich Gosselin (Dallas Morning News), who is as tied in to the draft as anybody, says he's talked to enough execs to know that Johnny Manziel is going in the top 12. I understand why Cosell wouldn't be willing to make a "leap of faith" - he wants to see the things he thinks are important in the NFL be done enough to develop a comfort level. But he even points out that "reasonable," "smart" people might disagree. I think the pro-Johnny Manziel argument goes like this - he's athletic, has insane football instincts, an NFL arm, and if he hasn't played in an NFL scheme, well that's not abnormal. Lots of prospects are projections based on raw tools. I'm on the fence because of - size (not height, but height/weight/frame), off-field concerns, and also because of the pocket questions. As for JD's argument - I don't really buy it. I think athleticism and the willingness of OC's to incorporate college aspects of the game help these young guys have success early, but I don't see where "you are what you are," and in the meantime, those teams are winning games.
Good comments! Another factor on where a team ranks a guy on their draft board is when a team is already established, they are looking for a specific skill to fit into their team's scheme. A team may have been looking at only one aspect of players' total skillset, already having guys who were just as good at other skills he had. That would lower his value to them. To another team, those other skills may have been lacking on the team, which increases the rookie's rating on their board.
I agree.
Forget about Manziel. No respectable scout says he is anything more than a 2nd round pick.Listen to Cosell and that is exactly what the problem is going to be. He just can't function as a QB in the NFL right now. Maybe he'll get better and be able to stand in the pocket very consistently but it's a gamble to pick a guy to do something he's never been able to do so far. I believe Jdub said it well when he said that the progression of the college and NFL game is such that guys are much more advanced earlier on and are pretty much what they are early on in their career. He's just not a pocket passer and according to Cosell, doesn't seem to understand his own offense and routinely doesn't throw on time to open receivers. That is not a recipe for success in the NFL.
I'm on the fence myself as to how good he'll be, but I'm confused by this. First of all, Gil Brandt, Daniel Jeremiah, and Russ Lande are among the few actual ex-scouts doing punditry. They all have him in the top 10, with Brandt calling him the best prospect in the draft. Rich Gosselin (Dallas Morning News), who is as tied in to the draft as anybody, says he's talked to enough execs to know that Johnny Manziel is going in the top 12. I understand why Cosell wouldn't be willing to make a "leap of faith" - he wants to see the things he thinks are important in the NFL be done enough to develop a comfort level. But he even points out that "reasonable," "smart" people might disagree. I think the pro-Johnny Manziel argument goes like this - he's athletic, has insane football instincts, an NFL arm, and if he hasn't played in an NFL scheme, well that's not abnormal. Lots of prospects are projections based on raw tools. I'm on the fence because of - size (not height, but height/weight/frame), off-field concerns, and also because of the pocket questions. As for JD's argument - I don't really buy it. I think athleticism and the willingness of OC's to incorporate college aspects of the game help these young guys have success early, but I don't see where "you are what you are," and in the meantime, those teams are winning games.
Well apparently someone thought Tebow was a 1st round pick as well. I just fail to see Manziel do anything that I believe will make him a very good NFL QB. I watch his "highlight" film and other snaps from games and he makes some really amazing plays. However, those amazing plays are often a result of trying to create a play after the initial play was missed. His escapism is rare and he seems to have a lot of traits that would make it very good at carrying the football in the NFL, wr or RB or some combination thereof, but I just don't believe he's shown the ability to be a NFL passer. Everyone looks at Kaep and Wilson and RGIII as reasons to draft a running QB but they aren't. All 3 of those are teams that really struggle when they can't establish a running game. Put any of those 3 on this Bucs team this year and they would struggle just like Glennon.All things equal, I'd like a guy who can run but first and foremost that guy must be a very good passer with running his last option. Otherwise I believe he'll miss more plays running that he'll make by extending the play. Just my opinion.
Good comments! Another factor on where a team ranks a guy on their draft board is when a team is already established, they are looking for a specific skill to fit into their team's scheme. A team may have been looking at only one aspect of players' total skillset, already having guys who were just as good at other skills he had. That would lower his value to them. To another team, those other skills may have been lacking on the team, which increases the rookie's rating on their board.
That may affect whether a team drafts a player or not, but in theory should not affect how they evaluate him. Scouts aren't supposed to evaluate players based on team needs. If they think a player is a B+ run defender, they're supposed to think he's a B+ run defender whether the team already has ten B+ run defenders or not. The Packers ranked Aaron Rodgers where they ranked him because that's what kind of player they thought he was. They didn't call him a 4th rounder because they had Brett Favre.
I understand why Cosell wouldn't be willing to make a "leap of faith" -
TBH, I can understand the "leap of faith" stance. Johnny is an absolutely leader.Johnny is an absolute playmaker.Johnny absolutely has flaws.IMO his promise far outweighs his flaws and I would take that leap of faith without thinking twice, but its still being done with the expectation that hes not going to be your standard QB and that he is going to have to learn the NFL more than a guy like TB or Carr is going to.
Think how good the class is if Mariota and Hundley declare , and MurrAy and Mettenburger didn't blow out there ACL's.Totally different dynamic.
Well apparently someone thought Tebow was a 1st round pick as well. I just fail to see Manziel do anything that I believe will make him a very good NFL QB. I watch his "highlight" film and other snaps from games and he makes some really amazing plays. However, those amazing plays are often a result of trying to create a play after the initial play was missed. His escapism is rare and he seems to have a lot of traits that would make it very good at carrying the football in the NFL, wr or RB or some combination thereof, but I just don't believe he's shown the ability to be a NFL passer. Everyone looks at Kaep and Wilson and RGIII as reasons to draft a running QB but they aren't. All 3 of those are teams that really struggle when they can't establish a running game. Put any of those 3 on this Bucs team this year and they would struggle just like Glennon.All things equal, I'd like a guy who can run but first and foremost that guy must be a very good passer with running his last option. Otherwise I believe he'll miss more plays running that he'll make by extending the play. Just my opinion.
The thing with JFF is that he is going to be incredibly raw. He's also incredibly talented, and it's not just his elusiveness. He can make the throws, so that's not a problem either.He has, beyond his athleticism, a rare vision and awareness and uncommon instincts. Those are things you simple can not teach. You'll need to teach him to be a pocket passer and to run a scheme rather than sandlot it. If you think you can do that you pick him. He's an ideal candidate to sit for a year. Would work for us sitting him behind Glennon if we think we can groom him.
Manziel is exceedingly raw, I will not deny he has talent but it is not NFL ready talent. Any team that drafts him as a "saviour" QB is not just taking a chance they are potentially putting their franchise on hold for 3-4 years as he develops. Manziel would be best served by being picked by a team with an established QB where he can sit and learn at a comfortable pace with maybe some limited playing time. As it is a team will pick him and hope that he can be the "saviour" in 1-2 years.
