Making right NFL draft pick difficult to project 
Vince Young was spectacular in college at Texas and got off to a fast start in the NFL, but his career quickly fizzled. He played in only 61 games during his six pro seasons. ASSOCIATED PRESS FILE By Ira Kaufman | Tribune Staff Published: March 29, 2015 TAMPA — Guessing on an SAT test might cost you a few points. Guessing in the NFL draft might cost you your job.NFL executives and coaches are still trying to take the guesswork out of judging quarterback prospects who thrive in spread offenses at the college level.“It can be difficult to evaluate the different mechanics of the spread, but at the end of the day, you have to be able to make those tight-window throws and have great ball placement,” Arizona general manager Steve Keim said. “There’s a lot of projection involved, but that’s what we do for a living. It’s a projection-based business.’’Oregon’s Marcus Mariota is this year’s test case, a Heisman Trophy winner who led the Ducks to the national title game while displaying rare athleticism at the position.The Buccaneers have the No. 1 overall pick in the NFL draft and are in need of a quarterback, leaving team officials to choose between two top prospects: Mariota and Florida State’s Jameis Winston, a more classic pocket passer.Head coach Lovie Smith said at last week’s NFL spring meeting that he likes them both. But when it comes to sizing up spread-formation quarterbacks, it can be a risky business.Vince Young, the third overall pick in the 2006 draft, was a dazzling prospect out of Texas who led the Longhorns to a 30-2 mark overall and a national championship out of the spread. After an impressive start, his NFL career quickly fizzled.The NFL landscape is littered with quarterbacks like Cade McNown, Akili Smith, David Klingler and Andre Ware who played in funky college offenses and couldn’t make the transition to the pro game.“It’s kind of unfair,” two-time league MVP Kurt Warner said. “It’s unfair for NFL teams, because we don’t know what we’re getting. It’s unfair for the quarterback, because he might have the ability to do everything that’s required, but because of the system he played in college, he wasn’t really able to show that. It’s easy to understand why NFL people start to question whether he can be that guy under center.”Playing under center seems to give quarterbacks a better chance to excel after college.Most of the NFL’s elite quarterbacks — Tom Brady, Peyton Manning, Aaron Rodgers, Drew Brees, Ben Roethlisberger — operate out of the pocket and played in pro-style attacks in college.But in the spread offense that has gained popularity, quarterbacks usually make one-read throws out of the shotgun formation. Add in a no-huddle system and three-step drops, and it’s easy to see why NFL talent evaluators face a difficult challenge when assessing some college QBs.“It wasn’t until I showed I could beat you from the pocket that I was able to capitalize on my athletic abilities,” said Hall of Fame quarterback Steve Young, who was a dynamic running threat at Brigham Young.
Mariota’s college record is impressive. As a junior in 2014, Mariota accounted for 5,224 total yards and 58 touchdowns, with only four interceptions. That kind of production has caught the full attention of the Titans, who have the second pick in the draft.“If we pick him No. 2, you definitely think he can be the Day 1 starter,” Tennessee coach Ken Whisenhunt said. “He was impressive, and just the short time we spent with him on the board, he was very good.”The consensus among NFL scouts is that FSU’s Winston is more NFL-ready than Mariota, who is likely to need more time to develop.“I just think Mariota has to make a transition, and it’s no fault of his,” ESPN analyst Todd McShay said. “He has a football IQ that is off the charts, and he eats, breathes and sleeps football. If put in the right situation and given time to develop, he has a chance to be a really, really good starter in the league.”NFL coaches like quarterbacks who can make quick reads based on defensive alignments. They want someone who goes through progressions and makes smart decisions.Can Mariota meet those requirements? That’s where it gets interesting.“You’ve seen Mariota throw — he makes all the throws, doesn’t he?” Smith said. “His football knowledge is very good, so who’s to say he can’t make the transition?”Said Cardinals coach Bruce Arians: “They hold up a card on the sideline, he kicks his foot and they snap the ball. That ain’t playing quarterback ... no leadership in that.”Even Mariota understands the trepidation. He went out of his way during Pro Day at Oregon to take snaps under center and show off his newly polished footwork.“I haven’t huddled in a while,” he said. “It seems like a little detail, but that is kind of a big thing.”Mariota isn’t the only prolific spread quarterback under scrutiny heading into the draft. Despite starting for just two years, Bryce Petty ended up throwing for 8,195 yards and 62 touchdowns at Baylor, adding 21 touchdowns on the ground.“We’ve seen guys recently that have played in these kinds of systems and had great success in college who weren’t able to make that transfer, and that’s what worries me,” Warner said. “You draft a guy in the top five, you expect him to be a guy who can play that first year, or within the first couple of years. It doesn’t mean Marcus Mariota can’t make it — but the fact remains he wasn’t asked to play in an NFL style at Oregon, There’s a little bit of a mystery there.”[email protected](813) 259-7833Twitter: @IKaufmanTBO
