SR's answer from the mailbag
QUESTION: What do you think the floor is for this team this year assuming they stay relatively healthy?
ANSWER: If the Bucs stay relatively healthy in 2025 I have to think the floor for this team is 10 wins. That mean’s a 10-7 record, which would be identical to last year’s mark. Ten wins should be enough to win the NFC South division again, with the Falcons still Falconing, and the Saints without a quarterback since Derek Carr retired. The Panthers will make some progress this year, but will still be a year or two away from truly challenging the Bucs for the division lead.
I think 10 wins is definitely the floor, but it’s just an inclination at this point. An article in the Athletic on where all 32 teams are right now, opened with: “if the ‘24 Bucs played the ‘25 Bucs, the ‘25 Bucs would win just based on talent (FA & draft)…”
My inclination has our Bucs winning 11 games. We’ll see.
Agree with SR, health would be my only provisional, but we certainly do seem to have more depth at a lot of the critical positions.
#Let’sBake!
I think 10 wins is definitely the floor, but it’s just an inclination at this point. An article in the Athletic on where all 32 teams are right now, opened with: “if the ‘24 Bucs played the ‘25 Bucs, the ‘25 Bucs would win just based on talent (FA & draft)…”
This will largely depend on how Grizzard will perform as a playcaller, something he's never done. Starting fast with the script was something the offense was very good at last season, scoring on the first drive 12/18 (8 TD's & 4 FG's) times. I haven't researched it, but I would guess that one of the highest percentages scoring on first drive this franchise has ever had. Grizzard matching or surpassing Coen's success on that first drive will be something to watch.
Our out of division schedule is pretty tough. Let’s say we go 4 and 2 within the division, which won’t be easy.
How many wings do you see against the Eagles, 49ers, Patriots, Jets, Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, Dolphins, Bills, Lions, and Texans? I see possibly 5 to 7. Which puts us at 9 to 11 wins.
I think 10 wins is definitely the floor, but it’s just an inclination at this point. An article in the Athletic on where all 32 teams are right now, opened with: “if the ‘24 Bucs played the ‘25 Bucs, the ‘25 Bucs would win just based on talent (FA & draft)…”
My inclination has our Bucs winning 11 games. We’ll see.
Agree with SR, health would be my only provisional, but we certainly do seem to have more depth at a lot of the critical positions.
#Let’sBake!
Grizz and Baker are the X factors here. I truly believe our defense will be more competitive in the secondary and at the line than it has been the past couple of years. I think our over/under for wins is 9.5. I’d be inclined to take the over. Philly has more true talent than Tampa but not by as much a margin as many think. I think the clock is ticking for Matt Stafford. He’s showed some signs of slowing down last season. Tampa should be favored in more than those 9.5 games meaning Vegas will week by week call for them to win more than 9.5. Will health and a new OC show up in the playoffs. My gut tells me Grizz is going to be just as nasty on the ground as Liam’s O. Talent wise this is a top 5 team ever.
Saints rumored to sign Aaron Rodgers
I had been on the same track, but I heard one of the Long brothers say something interesting. He was asked, between Baker losing Coen or Goff losing Ben Johnson - which one would it hurt more? Long said he thought Goff losing Ben Johnson would hurt him more. He further said he thought that Baker has been more innovative in the several offenses he’s handled the past few years, whereas Goff seemed to benefit more from Ben Johnson’s offense. Since Grizzard came from inside the Bucs organization and was involved in 3rd down playcalling - he thinks that works more in Bakers favor.I think 10 wins is definitely the floor, but it’s just an inclination at this point. An article in the Athletic on where all 32 teams are right now, opened with: “if the ‘24 Bucs played the ‘25 Bucs, the ‘25 Bucs would win just based on talent (FA & draft)…”
This will largely depend on how Grizzard will perform as a playcaller, something he's never done. Starting fast with the script was something the offense was very good at last season, scoring on the first drive 12/18 (8 TD's & 4 FG's) times. I haven't researched it, but I would guess that one of the highest percentages scoring on first drive this franchise has ever had. Grizzard matching or surpassing Coen's success on that first drive will be something to watch.
It’s still speculation, but it got me thinking differently about the whole issue. I may not be all the way there, as the play calling in general is still going to be a concern until it isn’t - but I’m a little more optimistic about the transition.
While the offense was elite under Coen, 3rd down conversion was also pretty elite.
So, your concerns are valid. It bears watching.
Our out of division schedule is pretty tough. Let’s say we go 4 and 2 within the division, which won’t be easy.
How many wings do you see against the Eagles, 49ers, Patriots, Jets, Cardinals, Rams, Seahawks, Dolphins, Bills, Lions, and Texans? I see possibly 5 to 7. Which puts us at 9 to 11 wins.
I think the Bucs go 3-3 in the division. But most of the non divisional opponents are in a state of transition.
Eagles - Bucs could still win as it has gone back and forth with them for a while.
49ers - They still have the components on offense to do damage still but their defense is in a state of transition with Saleh returning. Bucs could catch them off guard.
Patriots - Very, very talented defensive unit but despite the improvements on offense they still can not overwhelm anyone with their offensive arsenal. I will say that their TE duo could do damage if Hopkins can free them up along with Henderson.
Jets - Not sure what they will be because they have a lot of question marks. Wilks is walking into an uber talented defensive squad but I do not know if Glenn can steer the offensive unit to keep them competitive. It depends upon which Fields shows up for them really.
Cardinals - Have improved their defensive talent and are still a threat on offense but they still lack the ability to put teams away to be able to compete with the Rams and 49ers. They are close though.
Rams - That late 2024 regular season game against the 49ers was the most physical game that I saw in a long time. In fact it prompted 49ers GM Lynch to go out and draft bigger bodies on defense to help the 49ers not be gashed on the ground so much. Even with Stafford showing signs of decline they are going to be a physical team like the Eagles and Vikings.
Seahawks - Probably the most talented defensive squad in the NFC but that offense is a big question mark. That offense I think lost too much and Darnold just needs a perfect pocket to just do basic things as a QB which isn't realistic. MVS and Kupp are good WRs with diverse skill sets but they are often injured and as good as JSN is he can not do it alone to break 8 man fronts.
Dolphins - Elite speed everywhere but the focused on building up the trenches to be more physical this off season. Might be the sleeper in the AFC.
Bills - Very good team but they struggle to put themselves over the hump. Their WR room did better than most anticipated last year but that still is their big weakness.
Lions - They are going to be a physical team and the Bucs have gone back and forth with them 50/50.
Texans - When they are on they can beat any team in the league but when they are off they can lose to any team in the league.
Bucs I think can squeeze out 10 wins against the NFL which is becoming more physical again due to the success of the Ravens, Rams, Bucs, Lions and Eagles over a prolonged period of time. Also the physical game is the best way to stop the Chiefs too which is why a lot of teams are just copying the teams that have been consistently playoff teams for a while now.
I think the Bucs go 3-3 in the division. But most of the non divisional opponents are in a state of transition
I think we can sweep the division
I think the Bucs go 3-3 in the division. But most of the non divisional opponents are in a state of transition
I think we can sweep the division
Agreed. We will be favored in every game with the exception of maybe underdogs in Atlanta. Depending on when that game falls in the season.
I think the Bucs go 3-3 in the division. But most of the non divisional opponents are in a state of transition
I think we can sweep the division
This is incredibly rare, even for the best teams. Neither Super Bowl last season did it.
Yeah, that ranks right up there with intending to go out every week expecting to win.
Sometimes you just miss an assignment here/there, the other guy just beats you, at the worst possible moment,. Sometimes the other guys have a great game, and you’re just a bit off/banged-up, etc.
Just looking to stay healthy longer than other teams, beat teams we should, beat a few teams we’re not expected to win, and steal an extra possession or two from a few elite teams…11 times.
Arians says healthy equals contender
"I don’t think there’s any doubt,” Arians said when asked if the Bucs “are pretty close” to returning to a Super Bowl. “We just got to stay healthy. You know, we had all those injuries in the same position last year at defensive back. But if we stay healthy, I don’t think there’s any doubt the sky’s the limit for this football team. I mean, we got great camaraderie; it’s great energy in that building. And guys are really pulling for each other, so yeah. I think this is going to be a great year.”
I agree this is our year, but we need to stay locked in. Can't have those games like Denver after we beat a Lions team, or the loss in Dallas to Rush. Reason brady was probably "stressful" is because on those weeks the team is feeling good, hes a little bit extra psycho on the details to keep the team on their toes. Like random outburst of like "GET INTHE ******** huddle" to give more urgency
Bakers in his 3rd year here and put up 40tds he has the right to be a little bit asshole if he wants.
Kobe and MJ were a little asshole cause they knew what it took, and I think the team still knows what it takes, just need the right guy to unlock it