I want to preface this by saying I really like Arians, he's a very good HC and should be a clear upgrade over Koetter. He has a long track record of success and incredibly importantly seems to have a good line on excellent assistant coaches which was a massive weakness for Morris, Lovie and Koetter.
But then I remind myself I thought the same thing about Lovie. He was coming off a 10 win season two years prior, had averaged 9.7 wins his last 3 years and had never been under 7 wins after his 1st year as HC in 2004.
He had fielded multiple elite defenses and his 2012 Bears D is still the best D this decade. It's only forgotten because of the miserable Bears O. And that's what he was supposed to bring to the Bucs: a reminder of their history, his own history of winning, elite defensive play and a hope that he'd finally figured out how to hire a competent OC. It was a perfect hire.
And that's what worries me. We have another "slam dunk" and another sham of a coaching search. We have another coach that was away for a year and is supposedly coming back rejuvenated.
Now, just because something didn't work before doesn't mean it won't work now. And I think Arians will at least get the Bucs back to mediocrity if not outright winning. But is he the coach to take the Bucs to a Super Bowl? I'm not sure...
1) The coaching search was a sham.
Other than Arians health this is what concerns me the most. We've seen this happen 3x already: Raheem Morris, Lovie Smith, Dirk Koetter. And having a "pretend" search has not worked out once. The closest the best coach the Bucs have had since Gruden was Schiano who was involved in a real search (although Schiano was not a good NFL coach).
2) Licht's friendship with Arians
We have a bad GM who might be hiring the one candidate he has a relationship with. That makes my skin crawl a bit. It's another example more of nepotism than the best candidate. It's all just so coincidental...
So the next Bucs coach is getting hired based on his relationship, not his skill set. And yes, Arians has a great resume. But if Arians is the coach he's being hired first because of his relationship. It makes me uncomfortable that just like Lovie, pundits were predicting Arians as a candidate as soon as Koetter was on the hot seat.
3) Arians health (and age)
This is the other big one. By no means am I an expert on Arians health (obviously). But I started following Arians closely with Arizona because I loved what he was doing on O and on D there.
There was issues with his health going all the way back to pre-2015. And these issues eventually forced him to retire. My impression from 2015-18 was that the health issues were directly related to the stress and difficulty of being an NFL coach. And while he clearly feels somewhat refreshed I'm not sure he can keep up at a high level given these issues and age. He's had multiple health issues over the years including cancer (which he beat) and at least one hospitalization related to a heart issue.
Again, I'm no expert and hopefully Arians is more healthy than he has been in years. But without new info, and given his age, I'm concerned that he'll lack he'll be more mediocre than brilliant. Yes, old coaches can have success as can those who have come out of retirement. But Vermeil is the exception, not the rule ( https://www.usatoday.com/story/sports/nfl/raiders/2018/01/08/jon-gruden-back-raiders-how-have-nfl-coaches-fared-act-ii/995306001/).
“It was time for my wife,” he explained. “She was done, and God bless her, 47 years in this business is enough.”
His health was a concern as well.
“I knew I was done, too, when we had that conversation,” he said. “There’s too much to live for to die on the sideline.”
His blood pressure during games is an issue.
“I get a little hyped up, especially because of those guys in the striped shirts.”
Retiring after the 2016 season was considered, but with his cancer scare, he wanted to come back and not let cancer win.
4) Can he get great assistant coaches?
This is one we'll get an immediate answer on. I'm less concerned about this. And Arians may have timed this perfectly with some of his former assistants becoming available for new jobs.
But coaches coming out of unemployment can suffer for this having lost connections and coaches even in a year. Gruden has. And it's probably what killed Lovie more than anything else. With the Bears he had a largely elite staff led by two of the best assistant coaches of the last decade in Marinelli and Dave Toub. They'd both moved on and he had a terrible staff with the Bucs.
5) Not a change offensively
This is less of a criticism as well. But a lot of pundits and fans have said Koetter's offense doesn't suit Winston. Well, Koetter and Arians run a VERY similar offense. Any differences were more down to personnel than scheme. As well, Arian's offense are very similar to Koetter's statistically.
And that's about where Arians is as an OC. He's above average like Koetter but not elite. And that's OK - as the Rams have said about Sean McVay his offensive wizardry is like 20% of why they hired him. You're hiring Arians not to be an OC but a HC. And he is a clear and major upgrade there.
