Per Albert breer
Teams that have studied this have found that the high-end free agents usually don’t match their previous production. One team’s research shows that only 30 percent of UFAs play the same or better with their new team versus how they did the year before, with that number dipping below 20 percent in 2018. Another team that looked at it told me their number was at about 40 percent. Either way, and for whatever reason, the play of these guys usually doesn’t just fall short of the sticker price, it also falls short of their own best.
Five of the six lightest-spending teams made the playoffs last year, and two of the three lightest spenders played in the Super Bowl. Ten of the 12 playoffs teams from last year are in the bottom 14 in spending thus far.
