Let's take a look at the selections the past 14 years:2012 Andrew Luck Not yet elite but definitely a franchise quarterback from day one.2011 Cam Newton Worth the pick though neither elite nor franchise. Will be a difficult for Carolina when they have to spend a huge salary cap number to sign him. Worth the pick but, not unlike Winston, a timebomb of questionable "maturity." 2010 Sam Bradford Injury-prone. Not his fault. Too early to assess. Rams will have a difficult decision. Drafting Bradford meant really no improvement in wins and losses.2009 Mathew Stafford. Great arm but neither elite nor franchise. Good enough to make playoffs. Doubtful whether he will ever lead the team to the Super Bowl. Still hovering around .500 as a starting quarterback.2007 JaMarcus Russell. The poster child for selecting an immature quarterback with a poor work ethic. A bust.2005 Alex Smith. Franchise worthy but not elite. Twice in the playoffs in nine years.2004 Eli Manning. Two rings make up for a lot of disappointing seasons. Worth the pick.2003 Carson Palmer. Hard to judge. Injuries really took their toll. Never reached expectations.2002 David Carr. Ruined early by shell-shocking. A bust.2001 Michael Vick. Another head-case. Supreme talent. Lazy and relied too much on his feet, not enough on his arm.Busts: Russell and Carr. 20%+Near Busts: Bradford; Palmer. Busts and Near busts=33%Franchise: Luck, Smith, Near Franchise: Newton & StaffordElite: Manning (2 super bowls makes one elite).Note: Only one of nine first-drafted has won a super bowl. In fact, only one of ten has made it to a super bowl, which is the gold standard.Conclusion: First picks go to bad teams and thus begin their careers at a disadvantage. A first-pick quarterback will not be a savior to an organization. Andrew Luck and Peyton Manning not withstanding, the path to elite status is one requiring both talent and patience. manning cost his first coach his job. Luck is not there yet and has benefited from playing in a bad division. One could reasonably conclude that the hit rate is about 25%. Only one of these quarterbacks has won a super bowl. In fact, only one of them even has made it to a super bowl. One has to wonder whether the so-called "new game" of the NFL is really all that new.Your analysis?
