Let's say he returns. What was the difference between 2021 Brady (2d in MVP voting) and 2022 Brady? Brady21 had 7.4 Yards-per-attempts while Brady22 had 6.4. This one stat says it all--the difference between elite and below-average.
What caused the dip? Accuracy? In 2021, he threw 135 bad passes, as opposed to 113 this year. He led the league in bad throws both years, with Mahomes second in both years. So, his accuracy didn't actually dip. (Bad throws are a feature of Arians playbook; Brady never had so many with the Pats.)
Was it pressure? This year he took 22 sacks, and 22 last year. His pocket time this year was 2.2 seconds, 2.3 last year. So, that all seems about the same. But there were two glaring differences. He was blitzed 177 times last year, and only 123 times this year. And he was knocked down only 30 times last year and 52 TIMES this year. So, he was physically impacted way more, often with just 4 rushers.
At his age, physical force clearly has an impact. And he can't run to avoid pressure. But this seems to be, in part, an offensive line problem and a lack of running game problem. I actually think, with improvements, its reasonable to think he can approach Joe Burrow levels. Burrow had 7.6 y/a. They were actually nearly identical in throws of 10+ yards, 20+ yards, 40+ yards and 50+ yards. But where Burrow really outpaced Brady was 30+ yard throws. That, plus about 40 less bad throws, accounted for almost all the difference in their performances this year.
Brady's arms strength, arm endurance and decision making are still there--I don't see a huge difference from 2021. You just have to reduce the physical impact on him (o-line), induce teams to blitz (o-line), force defenses to stack the box (o-line/RB), and have play calls that enable all this (OC) ... and maybe you get one more elite season (~7.3 y/a)?
Brady just needs to visit Ponce De Leon's spring of Fountain of Youth.
Brady had gronk, AB, healthier Godwin, Marpet and healthy Jensen in 2021. Not to mention Bruce Arians input on play calling
he needs gronk back, a more experienced play caller ( so bob cooter over Mccardell) a third top WR that plays so no gage or Julio. Thinking OBJ if he’s reasonable
in terms of line, we need significant upgrade at LT. thinking (wirfs, mason, Jensen, hainsey and then first round pick)
I honestly don’t see Brady returning with Bowles. The only chance I see is if they do an end around and Payton ends up with us. Otherwise, brady retires or if there’s a great opportunity such as 49ers available, maybe Miami
Injuries, gronk, ab, & Bruce Arians.
Group bold items together
Let's say he returns. What was the difference between 2021 Brady (2d in MVP voting) and 2022 Brady? Brady21 had 7.4 Yards-per-attempts while Brady22 had 6.4. This one stat says it all--the difference between elite and below-average.
What caused the dip? Accuracy? In 2021, he threw 135 bad passes, as opposed to 113 this year. He led the league in bad throws both years, with Mahomes second in both years. So, his accuracy didn't actually dip. (Bad throws are a feature of Arians playbook; Brady never had so many with the Pats.)
Was it pressure? This year he took 22 sacks, and 22 last year. His pocket time this year was 2.2 seconds, 2.3 last year. So, that all seems about the same. But there were two glaring differences. He was blitzed 177 times last year, and only 123 times this year. And he was knocked down only 30 times last year and 52 TIMES this year. So, he was physically impacted way more, often with just 4 rushers.
At his age, physical force clearly has an impact. And he can't run to avoid pressure. But this seems to be, in part, an offensive line problem and a lack of running game problem. I actually think, with improvements, its reasonable to think he can approach Joe Burrow levels. Burrow had 7.6 y/a. They were actually nearly identical in throws of 10+ yards, 20+ yards, 40+ yards and 50+ yards. But where Burrow really outpaced Brady was 30+ yard throws. That, plus about 40 less bad throws, accounted for almost all the difference in their performances this year.
Brady's arms strength, arm endurance and decision making are still there--I don't see a huge difference from 2021. You just have to reduce the physical impact on him (o-line), induce teams to blitz (o-line), force defenses to stack the box (o-line/RB), and have play calls that enable all this (OC) ... and maybe you get one more elite season (~7.3 y/a)?
and taking those items in bold together YOU GET THIS
ATTEMPTED shorter throws and less deep throws all while throwing more quickly and still knocked downs 52 versus 30 times . . and those shorter throws were WITHOT a HOFer in Gronk and largely WITHOUT Godwin
as said above . . "in part, an offensive line problem and a lack of running game problem."
YES for sure play calling could've leveled some of this BUT that is an ADJUSTMENT for an inadequacy and it was not even that inadequacy that got the Bucs dump in the first round of playoffs . .the defense got OWNED up and won the filed
Not coincidentally . . the Bucs were 8-9 in the worst division
SR - "The Bucs were one of the slowest teams on offense in the entire league last season. Tampa Bay’s lack of speed and explosiveness contributed mightily to the team’s scoring average falling from 30 points per game in 2021 to just 18.4 points per game in 2022."
Severely lacking speed on the offense , mix that with a QB who operates in a phone booth , and you get 8-9
Severely lacking speed on the offense , mix that with a QB who operates in a phone booth , and you get 8-9
Mix that with…
A dipshit OC who couldn’t scheme his way out of a paper bag.
A low-IQ OC who thinks Play Action doesn’t work unless you run well
A moron OC who stubbornly reverses (or ignoring) clearly, successful trends in play-calling models (1st down passing %, play-action passing %, you don't need to establish the run to successfully PA-pass, 3rd and short conversions via running game wrinkles and tendency-breakers) to 1990 standards. Then when asked about those things scoff proudly.
A window licking OC who constantly had your Redzone Tight and abundance of 2nd & long (you're in "& long" because your prolific number of reduced formation, no horizontal set-dressing, run plays on 1st down failed...yet again) sniffed out or actually called out, and then sniffed out, by ILBs and Safeties.
A short bus riding OC who had THE LOWEST Play-Action pass % in the league despite the greatest PA QB of all time; 41 out of 41 of QBs with 200 Drop Backs.
A comically predictable OC who had the highest % of perfectly covered pass plays in the NFL (and way more than the median) which is correlated to our cataclysmic drop in 3rd and long conversion rate.
———-
We win 2-3 games without Brady this year.
This has been pointed out before, but worth saying again. I’ll state it like a math problem:
2021 Bucs minus Marpet minus Cappa minus Jensen minus Gronk minus Brown minus Godwin@100% minus Suh minus JPP minus Whitehead equals 2022 Bucs.
It’s no great surprise why the 2022 Bucs failed so miserably. And that’s just the player personnel part of the equation.
Brady doesn't need fixing. I think the family drama took it out of him. The weight loss was obvious. He looked like a ghost in training camp and then he had the time away. It's reasonable to think his physical preparation suffered as well as his mental focus. I mean, the Darlington story said as much. I do think it's entirely possible he could rejuvenate and refocus this offseason and be back to 100% Brady either in Tampa or elsewhere. Without all the divorce distraction, he can recommit for one more run.
Did anyone read Rick Strouds interview with Clyde C ? He made it seem like Brady was blindsided by his divorce. I just feel like Brady was getting pressure from Gisele to retire and I don’t think he was ready to. Obviously he didn’t play as well this year as I feel he could have. I think he probably didn’t prepare as well as he could have and considering his off field issues it’s understandable. I feel if he comes back it will be with the Bucs because I think he knows he could have done better.
