Coen is moving up the charts of prospective HCs for 2025. He's a shoe in to be offered a job, but will he take it? There is only one way I can see that would get him to stay. It's a huge long shot, but it could be the only way. Otherwise he's already gone.
1st convince Bowles to retire after one more year, and then he can be moved into the front office. If you assure him that we will get the players to give him one shot at a Superbowl. Would he do this? Well the option would be to continue on.... and have to break in yet another OC. He might just decide that taking one legitimate shot at a Superbowl with Coen might be better than unknown number of years with a new OC and maybe not a legit shot.
2nd give Coen a contractual guarantee that he'll be the HC after one more year. He'll team up with Bowles to make a run at a Superbowl. Why would he do this? Well, if he takes a HC job with one of the disaster area teams it will take more than a year to get the offensive in place that he has in Tampa Bay. He won't have the O-line, he won't have the QB. If he waits one year in Tampa Bay he'll have his own offense already operating at full strength. Wouldn't that be preferable to taking over a disaster area like the Jets or Giants or a team in cap hell like the Saints?
It would be awkward to have a lame duck coach, but the Bucs are a different kind of organization. It may sound farfetched, but the Bucs have to do something to try against the odds to keep Coen in the fold. Where will Coen be a year from now? Will he have spent a year struggling to turn around a losing organization somewhere? Or will he have the opportunity to take over a Bucs team that is competitive and has one of the best O-lines and a veteran top ten QB? He has to have a stone cold lock guarantee that he'll be the HC of the Bucs in one year. If he can get that guarantee, I think the Bucs can convince him to stay. Otherwise, sayonara.
He will be here. Next year and beyond.
I hope.
I think Coen likes it here, can call plays, HC has no say in it and lets him be him. We paid Mike smith HC numbers we can probably do the same for Coen. Just up to him if he wants to be a HC.
Licht won't do that to Bowles who he's gotten to know for a while.
we can pay him big money, that's not an issue. still, it all depends on two things, how much he likes it here and which opportunities he gets. there are quite a few openings and few more are coming in three weeks. some job offers are hard to reject!
we'll find it out very soon. his offense is real fun. to be honest, I think it is the most entertaining one we ever had!
Make him the highest paid OC in the league, first.
It is not that difficult to see Coen staying, but you have to be able to get past the misguided view that Bowles is incompetent. If you can just accept the possibility that some might see Bowles more like SR described Bowles, then it should not be too hard to see Coen staying.
This is SR on Bowles this season
Bowles has put his defense together at times with rubber bands, twine and glue due to a multitude of injuries that have hit his unit, especially in the secondary. The Bucs were one of the healthiest teams in the league last year, yet this year they are one of the most injured, unfortunately. That makes the coaching job Bowles has done even more impressive.
If you can accept that ^^^ as potential reality then it is not that hard to see Coen staying for some of the same reason BEN JOHNSON stayed with the Lions and that possibility is reinforced by . . .the experience of DAVE CANALES.
BEN JOHNSON wanted to "stay in the sun" after being "in the Arctic" for a long time. He wanted to CONTINUE the journey with the offense he had built. He said this when asked why he stayed as the OC for the Lions.
Coen could see the 2025 Bucs just like Ben Johnson saw the 2024 Lions. The 2025 Bucs provide Coen with:
1) the BEST chance to win the Super bowl,
2) the best chance to be the highest paid OC
And Coen should see ONE THING MORE:
3) the best chance to eventually take a HC job that DOES NOT mean a total rebuild.
The Bucs might still make the playoffs THIS SEASON with a defense held together by "rubber bands, twine and glue" and that is NOT due solely to Coen's offense. As SR just pointed out, "[m]issing the team’s top three safeties due to injury, Todd Bowles’ crew pitched a shutout in the second half and forced four turnovers – a fumble, an interception and two turnovers on downs on fourth down."
Next year the offense should be BETTER with Godwin back and another offseason. Next year a defense under Bowles should be better with an influx of talent and health. That would mean the Bucs, just like the 2023 to 2024 Lions, should be favorites to win the division and do well in the playoffs all the way to the Super Bowl. Coen can have that opportunity to win a SB - with his QB and his O-line and his RBs -- while being paid a fortune and being the successor to Bowles as the next HC. That combination doesnt exist anywhere else really, just ask CANALES.
Canales got a HC job, but for the worst franchise in the NFL. He has taken their 2 wins and turned it into 3 wins and he STILL has a big, unsolved QB issue. IT MIGHT ALL WORK OUT FOR HIM, but the Panthers are a long way from being competitive. The Bucs are BOTH competitive and YOUNG and they already have a defense that when healthy has been a division winning and super Bowl winning defense for the entire time Bowles has been here. COEN WOULD OBVIOUSLY BE IN THE BEST POSITION TO ASSESS THE ACTUAL CAPABILITIES OF BOWLES DEFENSE, so if he sees it like SR sees it he probably stay like Ben Johnson stayed.
THIS ^^^^ COULD ALL BE WRONG. Coen might leave.
But, it might also be why SR has suggest several times he might not.
Like Canales, Coen might figure he has to take the chance when it's offered. There's no telling when you will get another chance. Things could go off the rails and you could end up getting Leftwiched. That's why I think the Bucs have to have a succession plan in writing.
Coen could see the 2025 Bucs just like Ben Johnson saw the 2024 Lions. The 2025 Bucs provide Coen with:
1) the BEST chance to win the Super bowl,
2) the best chance to be the highest paid OC
And Coen should see ONE THING MORE:
3) the best chance to eventually take a HC job that DOES NOT mean a total rebuild.
As to the "Licht won't do that to Bowles" comment, I agree. But if things go South next year, then Licht could fire Bowles. It would work better to have this be a mutual decision for this to work, not one just forced on Bowles. If Bowles is thinking he only wants to coach for a limited time period and then retire, then maybe he doesn't want to go through yet another offensive coordinator, have the offense struggle again and possibly end up on the chopping block next year anyway. Perhaps one good year keeping the band together with Coen the leader of the offense and making a Superbowl run would be the preferred option for Bowles.
One possible scenario is to:
2025- bring back Bowles and Coen, make Coen Asst Head Coach/OC, essentially HC in waiting.
2026- move Bowles to FO as Defensive Consultant, and move Coen to HC.
Saves some face for Bowles and keeps Coen in Tampa for minimum 4-6 years.
I suggested this solution yesterday afternoon in a different thread.
The suggestions about “promising” Coen the HC gig after the 2025 season requires loyalty from a guy who’s been here less than a year. That’s an awfully big gamble.
And, even making him the highest paid OC in the league is chump change compared to what HC’s get paid (including the guaranteed factor).
Both sides of the ball have faced multiple key injuries this year. Yet, one side is ranked 4th in points scored, 3rd in yards, and Top-5 rushing and passing attacks. The other side is 27th in yards allowed and bottom half of the league in points allowed.
And, while Bowles’ staunchest supporters will ramble on and on about how he’s had multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball (again, so has Coen…some clearly adjust better than others), they conveniently ignore/duck/dodge certain aspects of Todd’s coaching this year:
- Absolutely God awful time management
- Arguably one of the most passive coaches in the league (favoring his defense in OT on the road against the Chiefs vs. playing for the win with his offense…the strength of the team; San Fran game, the lack of TO against the Lions last year in the playoffs, etc.)
- Arguably the worst situational awareness in the league (unnecessarily lose AWJ for multiple games at the beginning of the year, unnecessarily losing Evans for multiple games, unnecessarily losing Godwin for the year, and potentially unnecessarily losing Baker for a period with the Giants game, etc.)
We are where we are this year because of Liam Coen. Not because of Bowles.
If Liam agrees to stay on as OC, then great. Still doesn’t change the ineptitude of Bowles’ decision making.
But, if there’s even a fraction of a chance we lose Coen; you hand him the keys to the Aston Martin.
One last thing. The Glazers and Licht view Baker as the franchise QB and clearly value his input. How happy do you think he’d be if we lose Coen for a HC gig somewhere else?
@donkey_hunter - These are valid points that will no doubt be considered.
Coen would want the Bucs HC job if/when it was available by Bowles retirement. Does anyone seriously think at Coen would leave for another HC job if Bowles announced his retirement the end of this season and the Bucs offers Coen the HC job?
What HC job in 2025 would give him a better chance to win a SB than the Bucs?
In the NFL most (not all) HC jobs are from failed teams. This is the rough estimate of the job market for 2025 NFL HC's:
"The New York Jets, New Orleans Saints and Chicago Bears moved on from their head coaches in the middle of the season. Then there are potential openings with the Jacksonville Jaguars, New York Giants, Las Vegas Raiders, Dallas Cowboys and New England Patriots"
There are always external considerations like "family" or "close to home" or "high profile," so its hard to say but based purely on football not sure any of those jobs would be as a good a job as the young Bucs with a lot of dead cap cleared. And, it is basically half his team already. For sure HIS QB.
I'm not sure why anybody is worried about losing Coen. I have it on expert authority that Liam Coen doesn't really have the background to be a HC yet.
Coen doesnt really have the background to be a HC yet
This thread can be deleted now.
Ben Johnson definitely strayed from the norm by turning down HC jobs with the Commanders and Seahawks (reportedly), but its at least one way things could play out:
Ben Johnson- "I like what we built here, starting with ownership, the head coach, the GM, on down. We have a great group of guys in the locker room and I want to reap the rewards with them a little bit longer."
As far as I know Campbell is not retiring
This was Johnson more recently:
""Something that really resonates with me is, OK, eight openings this past year. What would you set the over-under in three years, how many still have jobs?" Johnson told Birkett. "I'd say there's a good chance five of them are out of jobs in three years. And so, when I look at it from that perspective, if I get the opportunity to go down that road, it's about how do I get to that second contract, how do I set myself up that if the stars need to align? I'm not going to do it just to do it. I love what I'm doing right now. Love it. Love it. I love where I'm at. My family loves where we're at. Love the people that we're doing it with, and so I'm not willing to go down the other path yet unless I feel really good about how it's going to unfold."
The money to over pay an OC is peanuts.
you do not get an NFL HC offer every day, and noone knows what happens in the future in the bay. do you really get another offer if your team goes 5-12?
also not sure what happens if cowboys or even giants make a call …. guess we can only hope he likes it here and our FO does the very best they can! meanwhile enjoy the season, more fun was only our great team 20+ years ago!
The suggestions about “promising” Coen the HC gig after the 2025 season requires loyalty from a guy who’s been here less than a year. That’s an awfully big gamble.
And, even making him the highest paid OC in the league is chump change compared to what HC’s get paid (including the guaranteed factor).
Both sides of the ball have faced multiple key injuries this year. Yet, one side is ranked 4th in points scored, 3rd in yards, and Top-5 rushing and passing attacks. The other side is 27th in yards allowed and bottom half of the league in points allowed.
And, while Bowles’ staunchest supporters will ramble on and on about how he’s had multiple injuries on the defensive side of the ball (again, so has Coen…some clearly adjust better than others), they conveniently ignore/duck/dodge certain aspects of Todd’s coaching this year:
- Absolutely God awful time management
- Arguably one of the most passive coaches in the league (favoring his defense in OT on the road against the Chiefs vs. playing for the win with his offense…the strength of the team; San Fran game, the lack of TO against the Lions last year in the playoffs, etc.)
- Arguably the worst situational awareness in the league (unnecessarily lose AWJ for multiple games at the beginning of the year, unnecessarily losing Evans for multiple games, unnecessarily losing Godwin for the year, and potentially unnecessarily losing Baker for a period with the Giants game, etc.)
We are where we are this year because of Liam Coen. Not because of Bowles.
If Liam agrees to stay on as OC, then great. Still doesn’t change the ineptitude of Bowles’ decision making.
But, if there’s even a fraction of a chance we lose Coen; you hand him the keys to the Aston Martin.
One last thing. The Glazers and Licht view Baker as the franchise QB and clearly value his input. How happy do you think he’d be if we lose Coen for a HC gig somewhere else?
Well put... I'd love for Coen to be co-HC or whatever. I'd love for Bowles to improve. I'd love for Coen to be a coordinator for one more year and then go to HC...
But the reality is we will 90% chance likely lose him if he doesn't get Bowles job.
We can't really fire Bowles if he wins the division again...
It's a rock and a hard place and it's why I don't share your confidence that we keep him.
I hope I'm wrong but this late game stretch will feel good right now but might be something we look back on and say it set our franchise back a decade.
