The 11 NFL quarterbacks who could get mega extensions in 2019
Bill Barnwell
ESPN Staff Writer
It's difficult to overstate just how important quarterback contracts are to success in the NFL. Finding a valuable quarterback on a rookie deal has been the league's Holy Grail since the NFL instituted a draft slotting system in the collective bargaining agreement in 2011. Maximizing the time teams get to spend with those passers helps, but even once they get paid market value, franchises build their rosters and their futures around the contract of the guy they have under center.
Typically, we see about five to six quarterbacks sign multiyear extensions during a calendar year. This year is likely going to be an exception. I don't think everyone I'm going to mention below will sign a deal over the next eight months, but as many as 11 quarterbacks could be in line to sign multiyear deals in 2019. One or more of them will be record-setting extensions in one way or another.
Let's run through those quarterbacks and their track records, and look at how their organizations typically conduct negotiations and structure contracts to try to get a sense of what they might expect to sign in the months to come.
11. Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Remaining on his contract: One year, $20.9 million in cash and on cap
The Winston roller coaster goes on. For the second consecutive season, Tampa is hopeful about the former first overall pick because of an impressive stretch at the end of the season. After being suspended to start the 2018 season and getting benched for Ryan Fitzpatrick in October, Winston came back into the lineup in Week 10 and played at a high level. The 25-year-old posted a passer rating of 100.1, took just two sacks per game and crucially threw just four interceptions over a span of six-plus games. Two of those picks were essentially Hail Mary attempts, too.
From the moment he was inserted back into the lineup, Winston posted a 72.7 Total QBR. That was the sixth-best mark in football and better than guys such as Brees, Wilson, Prescott and Baker Mayfield over that same time frame. One stat isn't everything, and it's a seven-start sample amid a 54-start career, but if Winston is that guy again in 2019, the Bucs are going to pay him a lot of money.
The Bruce Arians factor makes this an even more fascinating situation. Arians has helped mold young passers such as Roethlisberger and Andrew Luck, but in Arizona, he initially signed Drew Stanton as his team's starter before trading for Carson Palmer and installing him as the No. 1. General manager Jason Licht drafted Winston and is still with the team, but as someone whose job security is likely in tune with Winston's, it's no surprise that he told coaching candidates in December that Winston was the team's quarterback. Winston certainly has the arm strength to succeed in Arians' deep-passing attack, but we won't know whether he can get along with Arians until they actually work together for a season.
The only way I can imagine the Bucs sticking with Winston is if we get something close to the guy who excelled in the second half of 2018. If that Winston shows up, he's going to get paid.
What his new deal could look like: Five years, $150 million, $56 million guaranteed at signing
As is the case with Mariota, Winston's best chance at a big deal comes with his current team. There are organizations that won't touch Winston given that he has twice been accused of sexual assault. Any deal Winston signs is going to have language voiding guarantees if he's accused of committing a crime or gets suspended. That's going to be nonnegotiable.
The Bucs also structure their deals in a unique way, having adopted a pay-as-you-go cap strategy since the days of GM Mark Dominik. Tampa doesn't hand out signing bonuses as part of veteran contracts, which prevents it from spreading upfront payments over multiple years for cap purposes. The Bucs build their deals in a way in which they can move on from players if they don't work out without any dead money. They're essentially the anti-Cowboys in terms of cap structure.
With Winston, the Bucs will likely have to guarantee two years, although those figures will again be voidable in case of off-field incidents. He'll likely get a large upfront roster bonus of $15 million or so to go with an $8 million base salary in 2020, then a $26 million base salary with a $7 million roster bonus for the 2021 season. The Bucs would be able to move on from Winston without any dead money at that point if the former top selection doesn't live up to expectations on the field.
For all 11 QB's.....
http://www.espn.com/nfl/story/_/id/26427917/the-11-nfl-quarterbacks-get-mega-extensions-2019
