While everyone at PewterReport contributes greatly, Josh's football acumen truly stands out.
I tuned into his podcast, "Victory Monday," on Monday, and it was refreshing to hear him analyze Bowles' defense, touching on several key points I've been discussing for the past three years. His insights reinforce my belief that the defense is unlikely to improve significantly as long as Bowles remains at the helm.
Josh pointed out that Bowles’ high-frequency blitz packages paired with soft zone coverage have become increasingly ineffective as offenses exploit the short passing game. We've witnessed this firsthand against Mcvay, Shanahan, and Payton types of offenses. Sean Payton executed exactly what I anticipated this season: taking advantage of our run blitzes on first down to create easy underneath passes. Unfortunately, Bowles struggles to adapt to these offensive strategies.
While some may argue about injuries and talent, I firmly believe the primary issue with our defense lies in the scheme. The only scenario in which I’d support Bowles staying is if he were to hire a Defensive Coordinator from outside the organization. This person could help him better integrate coverages and make critical in-game adjustments. Without such changes, we risk remaining a mediocre team, hampered by an underperforming defense.
JQ - "With Bucky you do not silo the offense like you would with Tucker"
pointing out that Irving is a good receiver and pass protector
said Tucker is a great 3rd runner but they dont need to find him touches
While some may argue about injuries and talent, I firmly believe the primary issue with our defense lies in the scheme.
I think everyone here agrees with that (in bold) and I think Josh Q does a great job explaining. He does specifically mention talent though and, ironically, does so by raising JJ Russell and the Panther TD
But to begin with "primary issue" I think that most agree about the scheme because last season they were not great on defense, despite claims of "7th in scoring." They gave up tons of yards and, ultimately, it was the defense that gave up the eventual loss against the Lions because of an inability to stop them on three long drives. The prior year's defense also got blasted by the Cowboys the year before in the playoffs and exactly in the way JQ describes, a TE destrying the Bucs defense. From the 2022 Cowboys whipping to the 2024 Falcon's massacre this season, the opponent's formula is the same (ie they have the solution to the defense), so that ha to speak to the scheme
JQ makes the point that Bowles current scheme is sort of trying to have it both ways, pass rush/blitz to create driving killing plays, but soft defense behind it if that doesn't work. JQ points out (correctly, in my view) that many NFL offenses, like the Bucs and Falcons, are designed to exploit that kind of defense because they throw short and go explosive from there. In the past it might have been beat the blitz and press man deep but now its throw short and get YAC. The Falcons game should standout as an example.
Injuries and lack of talent are real though. We are playing 3rd and 4th players and bringing back the S blamed for all of last year's woes. Better talent on the D-line against the Panthers = more sacks instead of just pressure. And, as Quepo says at 39:55 the Bucs' defense "has a big problem in the middle of the field," meaning the LB corp. He even uses the JJ Russell/Panther TD example to say its BOTH talent and scheme.
Maybe the best part JQ hits at 41:22 and that is that the defense is capable of stopping teams IF (big big IF) the blitz gets home but 'IF NOT they are getting carved up like Kirk Cousins carved them up." That means that the offensive scheme beats the defensive scheme ESPECIALLY when you take down the talent level. . . . Britt . . JJ Russell etc.
THE ONLY QUESTION JOSH Q does not address is WHY have the Bucs become a blitz/soft zone behind it team? Why not the old school version of blitz/press? Is that Bowles? Talent? We went form Davis to cheaper McCollum, a move from man to zone. Maybe its both? Bowles implied last season that lack of talent explained the zone, but he is bringing back the Safety who was blamed last season, so .
While some may argue about injuries and talent, I firmly believe the primary issue with our defense lies in the scheme.
In general, I agree. You have the outlier of a game like Detroit, where Bowles' defensive gameplan is great and the players execute it extremely well. But unfortunately those games are the exception to the rule recently. As to the "some" you're referring to, don't pay any attention to the double-talking, shameless asshole that plasters the board nonstop. He's a clueless windbag.
And yes, Queipo generally does a good job.
Josh Queipo has definitely gotten better every year in writing and acumen, really enjoy his work.
It is from my understanding that Bowles played more man with Arians and more zone with himself. I'm willing to bet that all out blitz from the Rams game was an Arians call. If you guys have the time go back rewatch the season with AZ cardnials all or nothing. You can really see Arians dynamic with his playcalling and his relationship with his DC. Now with Arians gone Bowles likes the bend but dont break zone style.
Gotta go back and think of Bowles philosophy, he doesn't like to score fast he likes to give his defense a breather, and he likes the sure thing, its just his tendencies. Man is really exhausting on a defense especially the corners whereas zone is more chill but bendy. The problem is that teams are consistently getting points off the bend. Idk if we are gonna be able to shift our tendencies mid season and become an elite man team, we're really stuck in between a rock and a hard place. We really need an identity on defense and be good at what we choose to do. So far we are choosing to be a zone team but we are not good at it.
I'd say the zone does look a lil better these last 2 weeks not as big openings more NFL open than college open but its still open, its very subtle and you kinda need an eye for it or played it, but the windows in the zones we play are not tight enough. Teams that play very good zone is the 49ers defense, If you want examples of good zone play rewatch the 49ers bucs than rewatch the BucsD vs Falcons game 1. Similar plays, similar hole shots but the windows are played much tighter by the 49ers vs bucs than the bucs defense vs the falcons. As the game wears on zonewindows should get tighter and tighter because you catch the QB's tendencies/formations/route recognition but in the falcons game it kinda stays college open despite the game wearing on.
Cover 3 vs The outside comeback is a little TOO free for me. I dont mind that its caught because its made to beat what we have(corner looks inside) but its a little TOO open for me if you know what i mean
Just having the threat of a pick six, makes qb's wary of throwing the outside numbers comeback. If we do this at least once during the year we would see less of it. Even though this is a fire zone we send 5 and most likely playing cover 3(?) as I see CD/JD/JW somewhat in deep thirds. Dean is still sitting on the outside comeback which he takes the house. OC's would see this once and would rarely advise to throw it again for future games, because it needs elite timing if the CB is playing it
I agree - saw this PR video too. Excellent. I don’t always agree with Josh Q, but I find almost everything he writes/says compelling.While everyone at PewterReport contributes greatly, Josh's football acumen truly stands out.
I tuned into his podcast, "Victory Monday," on Monday, and it was refreshing to hear him analyze Bowles' defense, touching on several key points I've been discussing for the past three years. His insights reinforce my belief that the defense is unlikely to improve significantly as long as Bowles remains at the helm.
Josh pointed out that Bowles’ high-frequency blitz packages paired with soft zone coverage have become increasingly ineffective as offenses exploit the short passing game. We've witnessed this firsthand against Mcvay, Shanahan, and Payton types of offenses. Sean Payton executed exactly what I anticipated this season: taking advantage of our run blitzes on first down to create easy underneath passes. Unfortunately, Bowles struggles to adapt to these offensive strategies.
While some may argue about injuries and talent, I firmly believe the primary issue with our defense lies in the scheme. The only scenario in which I’d support Bowles staying is if he were to hire a Defensive Coordinator from outside the organization. This person could help him better integrate coverages and make critical in-game adjustments. Without such changes, we risk remaining a mediocre team, hampered by an underperforming defense.
He reminds me a bit of Trevor Sikkema.
As for this particular analysis - he’s spot-on. It’s a little bit lack of talent and a little scheme. I would add that it’s the lack of talent for the scheme. He also identified that injuries are somewhat to blame.
As for the part of the OP’s summation that’s speculative: I don’t know if Bowles scheme is a problem, but I can see if he stays that they’d want him to bring a DC, it would signal a transition. If so, you could target a former/fired defensive HC one who specializes in a 3-4 to best utilize the defensive talent we want to keep, but not one that would threaten Liam Coen. You could also go after underling position coach from a good NFL defense.
But as I don’t want to give up on this season - I want Bowles to win out. That would likely make it a much harder decision, and one the anti-Bowles crowd probably wouldn’t appreciate.
Go Bucs!
It is from my understanding that Bowles played more man with Arians and more zone with himself. I'm willing to bet that all out blitz from the Rams game was an Arians call. If you guys have the time go back rewatch the season with AZ cardnials all or nothing. You can really see Arians dynamic with his playcalling and his relationship with his DC. Now with Arians gone Bowles likes the bend but dont break zone style.
I can't say for certain that happened in New York, but that has certainly been the case in Tampa. I've said that Bowles isn't as good of a DC when he is also the HC and posted the numbers to support. But I never really thought it may be because of Arians being involved in the defensive gameplan, I just assumed Bowles struggled handling double-duty.
Your theory may very well be right.
The reason they spent a high draft pick on a linebacker named Devin White when linebackers don't normally get drafted early in the first round was because White fit into the scheme perfectly. As I've said before the Bucs miss the player Devin White was supposed to be. That's ancient history, but the Bucs haven't spent the draft capital on linebacker which is a key to making the Bowles defense work. They spent a 5th round pick on Dennis and brought back David one more year than he should have been. Look at the O-line - two firsts and two other Day 2 picks. That's great. But they never went back to the well on linebacker on Day 1 or Day 2 even though that is a key position in the Bowles scheme. Bowles hasn't been able to adapt to the personnel he has or doesn't have, and Bowles and Licht are unable or unwilling to bring in players from elsewhere to fix the situation.While everyone at PewterReport contributes greatly, Josh's football acumen truly stands out.
I tuned into his podcast, "Victory Monday," on Monday, and it was refreshing to hear him analyze Bowles' defense, touching on several key points I've been discussing for the past three years. His insights reinforce my belief that the defense is unlikely to improve significantly as long as Bowles remains at the helm.
Josh pointed out that Bowles’ high-frequency blitz packages paired with soft zone coverage have become increasingly ineffective as offenses exploit the short passing game. We've witnessed this firsthand against Mcvay, Shanahan, and Payton types of offenses. Sean Payton executed exactly what I anticipated this season: taking advantage of our run blitzes on first down to create easy underneath passes. Unfortunately, Bowles struggles to adapt to these offensive strategies.
While some may argue about injuries and talent, I firmly believe the primary issue with our defense lies in the scheme. The only scenario in which I’d support Bowles staying is if he were to hire a Defensive Coordinator from outside the organization. This person could help him better integrate coverages and make critical in-game adjustments. Without such changes, we risk remaining a mediocre team, hampered by an underperforming defense.
I think Bowles defense is too dependent on having that one linebacker roaming the middle with the speed to be able to pick up the tight ends coming over the middle but the size to be able to fill the run gaps and make tackles and also be able to blitz. That's a special player and the Bucs don't have that obviously.
linebacker which is a key to making the Bowles defense work.
JQ sort of makes this point in the podcast when he discusses the JJ Russell play giving up a TD.
The Bucs are bringing back Neal to try to cope with the problem
It is from my understanding that Bowles played more man with Arians and more zone with himself.
really great post. Made me do a little digging just to see about your theory.
I think its really difficult to separate Arians and Bowles, but a couple things stood out to me.
When Bowles goes to Arizona they draft Kevin Minter. He is sort of the Devin White of that time. LSU stud LB (Butkus finalist) etc. Hes drafted in the 2nd round and at the time is at least partly known for his blitzing. He's not the same player as White, but his role is very similar. If you flash forward to White you can see Arians make several comments about how the MLB position is critical in their defense (justifying the pick). Bowles sort of made Damarius Davis that player with the Jets, so I think the fast blitz-capable LB thing is with both of them.
Where it really stands out though is at CB because Bowles brings Antonin cromartie to the Cardinals (to join Peterson) and then when he becomes the HC of the Jets their first moves include bringing both Revis and Cromartie back, I think? Could be wrong there. if right though, that is press man guys that they can have on an island. When Bowles comes ot he Bucs they go all defense in the draft (essentially) and add White and then Dean to match with Davis, the two MAN guys. So REBUILDING a Cardinals defense? and a JETS defense?
So at least until the beginning of his time with the Bucs, Bowles is a FAST BLITZING LB guy and a MAN corner guy. Of course, to your point, Arians is there too but does Bowles move away from the style of defense he seemed to run SUCCESSFULLY his entire career because Arians moves on or because the Bucs dont keep the players ie, White washes out (but with Bowles true to him the entire time) and then we trade Davis because of $$ and don't replace him with that type of corner (although McColloum seems capable). Bowles has made several comments last year and this year now about zone tied to the capabilities of the players (lack of pass rush and shaky play in the middle of the field)
Anyway, all speculation. Would be really interesting to actually know the dynamic between Arians and Bowles AND between the FO and Bowles
JQ - "With Bucky you do not silo the offense like you would with Tucker"
pointing out that Irving is a good receiver and pass protector
said Tucker is a great 3rd runner but they dont need to find him touches
Bucs have scored TDs on 9/12 drives he's been involved in. Coen is inventing ways to ice him for an iffective player in White. And if you guys think the last run was some sort of smoking gun then go back and look at the blocking. It was teach tape.
