Interesting that everyone crowns Licht's drafts the day after but this is his fifth 1st round pick that won't be getting a 2nd contract, barring a contract year explosion.
To be fair, that's pretty common around the league. Brett Veach has had three first rounders eligible for big second contracts thus far. Only one of them got one, and that was Mahomes.
It's 1/4, if you count Veach's first pick in 2018 - which was a second rounder.
Interesting that everyone crowns Licht's drafts the day after but this is his fifth 1st round pick that won't be getting a 2nd contract, barring a contract year explosion.
To be fair, that's pretty common around the league. Brett Veach has had three first rounders eligible for big second contracts thus far. Only one of them got one, and that was Mahomes.
It's 1/4, if you count Veach's first pick in 2018 - which was a second rounder.
Continuing on with other respected GM's - with the last 10 first-picks of Ozzie Newsome's tenure, only 3/10 got big second contracts with the Ravens. DeCosta is 0/2 on eligible players.
Interesting that everyone crowns Licht's drafts the day after but this is his fifth 1st round pick that won't be getting a 2nd contract, barring a contract year explosion.
Jason is either hit or miss
2014 - HIT - we got Mike Evans. the rest of the draft was shit with ASJ and Sims but landing a HoF and fan favorite for over a decade now, huge hit
2015 - MISS - We swung and miss on Jameis Winston but to be fair Mariotta would have been a miss too. This drat landed us Don Smith and Ali Marpet who were huge in our superbowl run. Kwon Alexander also was a decent player for us for a few years but got to give this a MISS with the Jameis pick
2016 - MISS - Vernon Hargreaves, Noah Spence, and Roberto Aguayo. Need i say more.
2017 - MISS - We got Chris Godwin, but OJ Howard, Justin Evans, and Kendell Beckwith all flamed out after a couple years
so at this point, no doubt Licht is on the hot seat, then....
2018 - HIT - Vita Vea, Carlton Davis, Alex Cappa, and Jordan Whitehead all playing key parts in out Superbowl run. We also had Ronald Jones who was our starter most of the 2020 season and swing and misss on MJ Stewart
2019 - HIT - While Devin White flamed out here, he was big in our superbowl run. Also landed SMB, Dean, Edwards, and Nelson who played or continue to play key role with the team.
2020 - HIT - Wirfs and Winfield JR. Enough said
those last 3 drafts prompted up our Superbowl run. Sure, Brady and his gang (AB, Gronk, Lenny) were key but we dont win without the supporting case in those 3 drafts.
2021 - MISS - Jason may have been drunk still. i mean the Trask and Darden picks were just flat out assanine
2022 - MISS - Logan Hall is JAG, Goedeke, White and Otton look promising but jury still out on this draft class, would suggest leaning towards a miss though if we fast forward to 2026.
2023 - HIT - again too soon to tell but Kancey, Mauch, Diaby, and Palmer all look half decent. Again, if you go back to 2017, youd be calling that a hit with Evand and Beckwith so let's give it time but im ok to lean HIT here
2024 - HIT - why not be positive in landing a 10 year + starter in Barton and potential in season starters with Braswell, Smith, and McMillan. Irving can contribute too
so for the 2022 and on drafts, can't even grade them yet but gave a lean there.
We need power rushers and hand users on our defense it just fits us more schematically on the outside due to how much emphasis we put on the run, guys who can work tackles in a phone booth. JTS uses speed and space but he also doesnt have that straight power to anchor/shedding ability. If he changed his 1st/2nd down rushes for more of that hand usage rip/bull/swim and save his speed/spin for 3rd and longs it would of helped him more be in the right spot for Bowles Defense. JTS is a rusher you would have in the old Lovie D where you are sacrificing gap responsibility for qb pressure
Its why Diaby looked so much better, it reflected his game schematically, linear and more towards the qb while stopping run gaps
Licht was pretty bad early into his tenure but has continually to improved into becoming a better GM, he kinda has his formula down of what guys he wants, and most importantly the right coaching staff that also knows how to develop players. After landing BA and having more experienced coaching staff with him his drafts has been much better. I personally think you can never go wrong with a smart/instinctive player, its why guys like izien become a starting nickel, and solid contributors, Smart/instinctual guys with athleticism become all pros. I definitely think Barton is one of them, just from seeing how well he understands how to seal/uses angles and uses athelticism to get there, hes another wirfs in due time. The little things show up big on his film
Interesting that everyone crowns Licht's drafts the day after but this is his fifth 1st round pick that won't be getting a 2nd contract, barring a contract year explosion.
To be fair, that's pretty common around the league. Brett Veach has had three first rounders eligible for big second contracts thus far. Only one of them got one, and that was Mahomes.
It's 1/4, if you count Veach's first pick in 2018 - which was a second rounder.
Continuing on with other respected GM's - with the last 10 first-picks of Ozzie Newsome's tenure, only 3/10 got big second contracts with the Ravens. DeCosta is 0/2 on eligible players.
The most ironic fact checking EVER
I get accused of cherry picking but the fact check against me includes ignoring Newsome drafting Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Joe Flacco, Haloti Ngata, Ben Grubbs.
As for Veech. Is he really a good GM or did he just hit on a QB coupled with inheriting two Hall of Famers.
I get accused of cherry picking but the fact check against me includes ignoring Newsome drafting Ed Reed, Terrell Suggs, Joe Flacco, Haloti Ngata, Ben Grubbs.
I went back 10 years, chief. Seems like a pretty good sample size to show even the best GM's don't hit it as often as people like you think.
And Ben Grubbs didn't sign a second contract with the Ravens.
As for Veech. Is he really a good GM or did he just hit on a QB coupled with inheriting two Hall of Famers.
Except for yourself, who are the really good GM's that consistently hit on their first pick?
So it was a just a coincidence you left out the two Hall of Famers and Super Bowl MVP QB
So it was a just a coincidence you left out the two Hall of Famers and Super Bowl MVP QB
How does that resume stack up against yours though?
So it was a just a coincidence you left out the two Hall of Famers and Super Bowl MVP QB
Not a coincidence. I went back 10 years. It's a pretty round number. You want me to go back 11 years and say Newsome had 4/11 first-picks re-signed? It still cements my point that even the best GM's miss quite a bit, but does that make you feel better making it 11 years instead of 10 years?
Here are the longest tenured GM's and (all) their first pick re-signings to big contracts:
Mickey Loomis: 6/18 (Andrus Peat was one of the re-signings - lol)
Howie Roseman: 6/12 (those 6 include Derek Barnett @ 3-yr/$15M, not what I would call a big re-signing)
John Schneider: 0/11 (That was pretty unbelievable)
Les Snead: 4/9 (Joseph Noteboom - lolz, Todd Gurley/Tavon Austin cut/traded within 2 years of re-sign)
Jason Licht: 2/6 (Doesn't count Wirfs yet)
John Lynch: 1/5 (Only re-signing was Nick Bosa)
Chris Grier: 0/4
Chris Ballard: 2/4
If you count Barnett as a big re-signing, Roseman is the best of the bunch. If you don't count the Barnett signing - which I wouldn't - Les Snead has the best percentage. But that includes a scrub like Noteboom, Gurley being cut and Austin being traded within two years of re-signing each. Not sure how successful that is. Really, Ballard is the guy that has done the best. Because his 50% hit rate doesn't include Kwity Paye, who they are going to be re-signing pretty soon.
Bucs first round picks since 2000
2001 - OT Kenyatta Walker- miss
2004 - WR Michael Clayton - miss
2005 - RB Cadillac Williams - miss
2006 - OG Davin Joseph - HIT
2007 - DE Gaines Adams, miss
2008 - CB Aqib Talib- HIT (but more so for other teams, didnt stay with us)
2009 - QB Josh Freeman - miss
2010 - DT Gerald McCoy - HIT
2011 - DE Adrian Clayborn - miss
2012 - S Mark Barron - Miss
2012 - RB Doug Martin - miss
So nearly decade and a half of absolute garbage.
Licht comes on board
2014 - WR Mike Evans - HOF HIT!
2015 - QB Jameis Winston - miss
2016 - CB Vernon Hargreaves - miss
2017 - TE OJ Howard - miss
2018 - DT Vita Vea - hit
2019 - LB Devin White - miss
2020 - OT Tristian Wirfs - HOF HIT!
2021 - JTR - miss
it's no wonder we were not a good franchise for much of the 2000s but just batting .500 in the first round seems to have kept us competitive under JL
2004 - WR Michael Clayton - miss
2005 - RB Cadillac Williams - miss
2006 - OG Davin Joseph - HIT
What is the line of demarcation between these players? You two of them as misses and one as a hit. All three signed second-contracts, which was the point being argued above. But it can be argued that none of them should have signed second contracts (like Noteboom & Peat above) and they were all 3 misses.
2004 - WR Michael Clayton - miss
2005 - RB Cadillac Williams - miss
2006 - OG Davin Joseph - HIT
What is the line of demarcation between these players? You two of them as misses and one as a hit. All three signed second-contracts, which was the point being argued above. But it can be argued that none of them should have signed second contracts (like Noteboom & Peat above) and they were all 3 misses.
oh sorry about that, i was just listing them out. didn't necessarily contribute to the argument of second contracts or not being successful. But rather, a hit or a miss.
Michael Clayton had 1 good year with us which unfortunately was his rookie year. Cleary a miss
same with Cadillac Williams his rookie year being the best and injuries and what not derailing his career but he was also butt cheeks in his sophomore season pre injury. A clear miss as a top 5 pick.
thought Davin Joseph was the best of the three. Not that pro bowls mean much but he made it twice in his career with the Bucs and was a solid starter for 7 years. My memory may not be serving me correctly but thought he was half decent. Can certainly talk me into a miss there lol
