Licht’s Prove it Year (Did Arians make him?)

Questions to consider:

1. What is Licht’s best draft over 9 seasons? How do they compare to other GMs responsible for drafting? Is our standard of drafting this past decade considered above average? 
2. How does Licht’s Free Agent acquisitions and management of the roster compare to other GMs? Outside of the Arians (and really more so the Tom Brady era) the roster management and acquisitions compared to other teams over the past decade? 
3. 6 out of 9 seasons were losing season- does being in the bottom third of the NFL, bottom of the NFC South, and if not for the Tom Brady years constitute having faith in Licht? 
4. Licht’s 4 head coaches across 9 seasons and only 1 has had more wins than loses. Again, was Arians, a hall of fame coach, with an ability to build assemble a coaching staff and get players like Tom Brady why this team had success? 2020 and 2021 seem like outliers to Licht’s other 7 seasons.
5. Talent Evaluation. Horrible contracts given to players with bad attitudes and don’t stay long. Building a winning culture by getting the players that want to be here and can be a team leader. It has not happened much outside of players like JPP and Brady. 

6. The Buccaneers playoff drought stretched to 13 years in 2019. One more would tie the era of futility seen from 1983 to 1996. In 2018 Fan apathy led to thousands of empty seats at Raymond James Stadium in spite of offers of free tickets for existing season ticket holders and most games had way too many visiting fans taking up residence. Not only that but TV games were blacked out. Attendances at Buccaneer home games continued to decline in 2019. Did 2020 and 2021 make us forget or forgive? Did 2022 show that were really still the 2014-2019 Buccaneers?

1. I think Bucs drafting the past decade is pretty average compared to the rest of the league.  If you compare to BB and the Patriots then the Bucs are doing better than expected.  But if you compare to the Ravens it seems the Bucs are not doing as good given how often they picked so high in the draft compared to the Ravens. 

2. Free agency has been Licht's weakness and his best finds have been value shopping veteran players. 

3. Licht's free agency blunders contributed to having rosters not being as good as they should be IMO regardless of the HC at the time.

4. Possibly but I also think that Koetter did a good job coaching up some pretty average rosters.  Had the Bucs faired better with the big free agent signings during Koetter's run he would have had posted a better record as the Bucs HC IMO. Bowles has the opposite problem because while the 2022 squad was not as talented as the 2020 and 2021 squad he still had a stacked and playoff experienced roster and he squandered it. 

5. Trying to give out big contracts to UFAs has been a big thorn for the team.  I prefer to see the team shift their focus on making more draft selections and retaining talent on second contracts that are familiar with the Bucs organizational structure. 

6. I think 2022 showed the team still has enough talent to compete but Bowles and the coaching staff all have to do better.

If Bowles has learned anything from Arians that is you have to coach up and use the talent you have on the roster even if it is not ideal.  So what you don't have a game breaking RB on the roster or a traditional running game that Bowles wants? You can still ask the OC to be creative with White or find a way to design plays to push the ball into Lenny in the flat to act like a "running game".

Tom Brady is known to be able to dump the ball off to RB's to create a psuedo running game and gain chunks of yards for reasonable down and distances and to move the chains.

Failure to utilize existing talent and to hold the OC accountable was Bowles mistake. Fortunately Bowles has a chance to reshape the roster and coaching staff to his vision this off season. 

I anticipate that the defense will become more aggressive and the offense will be more balanced which will help the defense earn more turnovers hopefully. 

This is tagged to Licht? 

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• Darrell Revis released for nothing after massive trade and $96M contract in 2013.

huh???

the Lovie years are almost a pass because lovie is hired first (has the power) and is a joke of a coach 

Arians is the guy who wanted White, right? 

I doubt the Glazers think of Licht as just a bundle of draft picks, in part because he brought Arians and Brady here and won a SB

I think Brady makes a lot of people lol

licht had some home run drafts that really came to light in our 2020 run. We don’t win it without that hit after hit

But he certainly has had more dud drafts  C or worse grades than he has had A grades 

I think his professionalism, working relationships with glazers and the superbowl win has bought him some time.

I think he has Bowles and the next coach, then if next coach doesn’t pan out, he’s likely run his course 

These 3 picks fell into his lap

Evans 

Wirfs

Winfield 

He's been more lucky than good but i still say all things considered this has a been a solid off-season thus far.

He needs to hit in draft picks because his last 2 have been shit

like almost every GM Licht has a very mixed record. Some of that is down to his choices FOR SURE but like every GM it’s also circumstances 

For example, no way we pass on a QB the year we take Winston and we were taking Winston almost no matter what because of the “hometown” ticket selling  advantage. 

Turns out both were bad 

McKay is revered by some but that era is driven primarily by getting Sapp who fell to us and Brooks in the 1st. Those two together, in Monte’s defense, and Dungy’s calm presence all come together 

and McKay didn’t get Gruden..

mixed bag always 

Posted by: @firebowles2023

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These 3 picks fell into his lap

Evans 

Wirfs

Winfield 

 

He's been more lucky than good but i still say all things considered this has a been a solid off-season thus far.

He needs to hit in draft picks because his last 2 have been shit

The last two drafts have been a bunch of developmental players which is a problem Licht has throughout his draft history.  In theory that is fine if you hit on all your free agent signings or most of them.  The FA signings buy time so you can develop players.  But as we all know a lot of big FA signings by Licht have been duds. 

Recently Licht has said he isn't going to change his approach drafting (developmental) players.  But given that his best success with drafted players have been players that hit the ground running day 1 I say he has no choice.  Especially since the cap crunch will force the Bucs to draft day 1 contributors throughout the draft.  

Posted by: @firebowles2023

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These 3 picks fell into his lap

Evans 

Wirfs

Winfield 

This simply isn’t true. Or, at the very least, is missing a ton of context. 

Evans - Bills took Watkins (I believe they traded up too if memory serves). Huge need at the time. Was projected top 5 but fell. Pretty easy slam dunk pick.

Winfield - again he fell to us. A pick many experts had going to the Bucs, one that I was yelling at the screen to draft as it happened. Without looking it up I think he was the 3rd or 4th safety taken... straight fell into his lap.

Wirfs - the big 4 OTs at the time and after his combine many said, myself included, that he was the best prospect. First 3 went. Licht wisely traded up one spot to grab him (can you imagine if niners took him? That line would be insane). Instead they took the SC DT.

I'll give him credit for trading up one spot but again, Wirfs fell for no freaking reason.

And yes I realize I'm arm chair qbing this but all 3 picks while the draft was happening I was yelling at the TV to take those players... and I'm by no means an expert... 

So this is obviously just an opinion but Licht's greatest hits in the draft either fell into his lap, or the random big hits in the 2nd and 3rd round (Marpet, Davis, Dean).

I think Licht is a dope more than anyone but you can't say Wirfs fell on his lap when he literally traded up for him, even if it was just one spot. 

I think what firelichtttt is saying is that they were obvious picks. I think the rebuttal to him is that how often have we or other franchises screwed up obvious picks. For example, eagles taking reager over Justin Jefferson in which 31 other teams would have taken JJ

Jason has had a couple great drafts but yeah the last two were brutal. He’s due 

Evans - Bills took Watkins (I believe they traded up too if memory serves). Huge need at the time. Was projected top 5 but fell. Pretty easy slam dunk pick

It was far from an easy slam dunk pick. You weren’t around here during that time, but this board was absolutely divided leading into that draft. Many of us (including me) were in the Donald camp. And, I truly believe that was the direction we were going until McCoy publicly poured about it. 

Winfield - again he fell to us.

Again, EVERY single team passed on him. 

I mocked him multiple times in a trade up (back into the 1st). 

There were size, durability, and injury concerns (still are). 

Wirfs - the big 4 OTs at the time

Your memory of this pick is certainly different than mine. The overwhelming majority of posters had him as the 4th OT. 

I remember arguing with the poster Nobody that I thought he was the best of the class (while I believe he thought Thomas was the clear cut #1).

The majority of the board was all in on Becton.

Licht traded up for him. The rest is history.

He certainly didn’t fall in his lap. 

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Listen, we can certainly criticize Licht and a number of his picks. 

ASJ, Sims, Aguayo, VH3, J Evans, RoJo, Stewart, SMB, White, etc.

Plenty of examples of wasted premium draft capital. 

But, these 3 in question…give credit where credit is due.