I was thinking about how the best predictor of future performance is past performance. And how points for/against are a great back-of-the-napkin way to evaluate future performance.
I was reminded of this article that predicted 8 wins for the 2017 Bucs: http://www.tampabay.com/sports/football/bucs/no-love-for-the-buccaneers-las-vegas-sets-overunder-at-eight-wins/2323001
So how are the Bucs right now in Points For/Again?
The Bucs are 23rd in points for and 20th in points against. Going further, if we use the calculated in the article above, the Bucs are predicted to win 6.5 games in 2018!
That's not all that's depressing!
FootballOutsiders (FO) was very negative on the Bucs 2017 season (for statistical reasons) because a lot of what made the Bucs successful were not sustainable. For example: (a) the sack rate far outpaced the pressure rate, (b) above average turnovers, (c) very healthy, (d) Winston holding the ball too long, (e) and a high pressure rate on Winston but low sacks.
These were positive stats for the Bucs that were likely to regress and that's exactly what's happened.
On top of this, they were very critical of the offensive line shuffling. Koetter/Licht should take a bath for this one as we know one of the most necessary components of offensive line production is continuity. As an example, moving Marpet downgraded both C (as he acclimated) and G.
The Bucs also came into the season with the worst kick return unit last year and haven't scored on a punt/kick return since 2010. Outside of Bryan Anger (and maybe Murray NOW), the Bucs ST units are terrible. This is under-reported and under-appreciated.
FO also predicted 7.5 wins ( http://www.footballoutsiders.com/dvoa-ratings/2017/2017-dvoa-projections) and DVOA offensive/defensive rankings of 19/26. That's pretty much spot on. What's interesting about that, is the were predicting not only a bad defense but a bad offense as well. Again, this isn't based on opinion but statistics. Of course, those statistics may be wrong, but we should pay attention given how accurately they've predicted the Bucs season.
What is this model telling us about the 2018 Buccaneers?
First, it's telling us that the 2017 Buccaneers are likely who this team is. The end of 2016 was the aberration and this is the norm.
Second, the Bucs offense has systemic problems. This isn't an isolated issue. Although many would like to blame Winston's health, the Bucs O struggled with him on the field.
Third, this team without significant changes will suck in 2018.
The point is that, objectively, this teams prospects are not good for 2018. Barring significant changes, we'll experience more of the same in 2018. Maybe the team will go 9-7 again, but this will never be a playoff winner as it stands.
