OK my theory that the mock draft sites more or less copy each other, well that's being seriously challenged by the mockers this year. They can't decide what the hell is going on when it comes to offensive tackles. They can't agree at all about the order the top 4 OTs will go off the board.
I'm concerned with the 4th and 5th OTs, logically the ones that might end up as a Buc. Looking at about a dozen or so of the media mock drafts the #4 guy was: Wills 3 times, Thomas 4 times, Bekton 3 times and Wirfs 2. I've seen all four of these guys mocked to the Bucs. Gee thanks for clearing that up! There's more consensus about the #5 guy with Jones at 8 and Jackson at 3. And of course there is a chance the Bucs could wait to address this position in Day 2 or beyond.
So my crystal ball isn't helping out a lot, so I went to reading the tea leaves. Here is the order of 1st round OTs ranked by most likely to be drafted by the Bucs. NOT order of best to worst, just most likely to happen.
WHOS THE NEXT BUCS OFFENSIVE TACKLE?
1) Josh Jones 30%- I could see the Bucs trading down a few spots or just staying pat and taking Jones if the other four are gone. Either way, I think Josh Jones is the most likely guy to become a Buccaneer.
2) No 1st Round Tackle 25%. Of course its impossible to predict what position the Bucs will pick, and so ONLY giving it a 25% chance it will be another position is pretty low. But when you think about what a big deal it was at One Buc to land Tom Brady, you have to think that protecting him will be a huge priority. To not draft a tackle in Round 1 would be shocking to me.
3) Andrew Thomas 15%- He could drop to 14 or the Bucs could even trade up a couple spots. Thomas comes in at #4 more than the other three guys, so by that basis he has a decent chance to be a Buc and that would be sweet. But I'm buying the hype on these OTs and I think they'll be gone before the Bucs pick.
4) Austin Jackson 10%. The Bucs could trade down because of a feeling that they don't have a big preference between Jones or Jackson and would take either. So they could be taking Jackson because they like him or because Jones was gone.
5) Mekhi Bekton 10%. There is a chance that teams are not buying that Bekton is ready for prime time which could cause him to slip.
6) Jedrick Wills 5%. What do I know. As long as I'm buying hype, then I could be buying the hype on Becton and Wirfs having a great combine and people forgetting about Wills. 5% mostly just wishful thinking.
7) Another OT 5%. There's always a trade down and pick of Niang or Cleveland or somebody.
5) Tristan Wirfs >1%. No way the Bucs land Wirfs.
