Because the message board won't let me post this in the thread I want to ("USA Today Prediction"), I'm making this thread... since Charlie called me out.
@stylus1274 (Charlie)
Sorry Charlie, didn't realize you were waiting for me. :) Was on vacation.
To simplify, let's start off on a common ground that most of us can agree on. First, our upgrades. I think almost everyone here believes our DLine is light-years ahead of last year. We ranked as one of the worst in the league (if not the worst), at all levels on defense and it primarily started with the lack of any pass rush. This year, we have a much better DLine that should generate a quality pass rush and run stopping regularly. Our LB's are pretty good, not great, but they are a quality group... and will be aided by a DLine that won't depend on their talents to make up for the DLine's short comings. All of that should supplement the "ok" secondary. I don't think they stink, but they're certainly not great. League-wide, I'd say around the middle of the pack. But, as we all know, a good DLine makes everyone better.
Next, the schedule soft points... the Bears, Bengals, Browns, & Ravens. There's NO reason the Bucs shouldn't win 3 of those games, really 4, but let's say they win 3. Not one of those teams are "special" at any front of their roster. The Bengals to have a good defense and they have AJ Green, but their OLine is shaky, Dalton is "ok", and the RB's are an unknown. Plus, they have one big negative going for them... they kept Marvin Lewis. Outside of them, who are the best of that group, the other 3 are not good teams.
Lastly, I think there's no reason why the Bucs shouldn't split their division games. In the first go-around last season, the Bucs lost each division game by 14 points or more... the second time, they lost by 3 points to both Atlanta and Carolina... and should have won both, and beat the Saints. So, of these 10 games, I have them at 6-4. Now for the other 6...
Tell me why the Bucs "WON'T" or "CAN'T" beat the following teams...
Week 2 vs Eagles - Wentz really isn't ready. Jeffery will likely be out. They lost their OC, QBC, a bunch of key defensive players (2 of which to us), and other quality contributors like Celek (likely retirement), Burton (Bears), and Blount (Lions). Yeah, they replaced these departures, but one off-season and 1 regular season game isn't always enough to catch everyone up.
Week 3 vs Steelers - Vibes aren't good in Pittsburgh with turmoil surrounding their offense. They lost their OC, Ben isn't happy the team drafted a QB, and Bell is salty that they didn’t give him a new deal and he still hasn’t shown up to camp yet. The Steelers are still a really good team, so I’m not saying this is an easy win, but we’re a non-conference / road / sandwich game for them between the Chiefs and the Ravens.
Week 10 vs Redskins – I don’t think they’re all that good of a team. Alex Smith is a pretty solid QB, but Guice is out for the year, AP is an unknown, and the rest of their backfield is blah. Their receiving corp isn’t all that special and the defense is “ok” at best. There’s no reason this shouldn’t be a win.
Week 11 at Giants – I think this will be a tough game, primarily because it’s in NJ. The 2018 Giants will be more like the 2016 Giants than they will the 2017 Giants. The addition of Barkley, a healthy Beckham and a full year where Engram and Sheppard were able to grow will certainly make the Giants a good team. Their OLine and defense aren’t all that, but they’re at least respectable. I think this will be a tough one.
Week 12 vs 49ers – West coast teams don’t travel well to the east. While Garoppolo has started out well, he’s still an unknown. I think the 49 will be a pretty decent team, but I don’t see them as being that big up and comer like a lot other’s do. McKinnon isn’t a very good RB, he’s decent – but that’s the extent of it. Goodwin made strides last year, but that’s a small sample size and Garcon is always hurt. Their Oline is pretty decent, but the defense is mediocre at best. This is not a team that scares me, especially since they’re coming here.
Week 16 at Dallas – This team stinks. Their OLine has taken 2 big hits, they have quality pass catchers, and Dak is “ok” at best. They go as Elliott goes… and he’ll have very little to work with. Their defense, by all accounts is still pretty good, but after a full season of wear and tear where their anemic offense will force them to be on the field a lot, they’re not going to be the same defense in December that they probably will be in September. I see Dallas as a 4-win team this year.
In those 6 games, the only game where I say “that’s a loss”, is the Giants. The Steelers & Eagles games won’t be easy, but I believe they're winnable. The Cowboys, Redskins, and 49ers will be wins, so that’s 3 wins and let’s say a split between the Eagles and Steelers, so that puts the Bucs at 4-2 in that group. So there you have it, my 10-win (possibly more), season…
3-1 vs the teams most of us expect the Bucs to beat
3-3 vs the division teams
4-2 vs the teams that many expect to be good teams.
