After some much-needed rants and frustration vented throughout the week, I’m back to my usual self—well, as normal as I can be! The NFL is truly an “any given Sunday” league, where any team can win on any Sunday. I’m hoping this can be one of those Sundays. The Bucs are coming off a disappointing loss to the Patriots and need to stop any negative momentum before it gains traction.
The Buffalo Bills find themselves in a similar situation, having lost a frustrating game to the struggling Miami Dolphins last week. They might be even more upset than the Bucs right now. So, who needs this win more? Let’s examine what each team must do to secure a crucial victory this Sunday.
BUCS WIN IF…
Bucs on Offense: The Bucs’ success on offense will depend more on their execution than on what the Bills’ defense does. Whether or not Bucky Irving and Chris Godwin Jr. return, the Bucs have the tools to produce offensively week in and week out. With their three best offensive linemen—Tristan Wirfs, Graham Barton, and Luke Geodeke—on the field, they have the strength to make things happen. Guard has been a weak spot, even when healthy, but the Bucs put up impressive numbers against a top-10 defense in Seattle with a similar lineup.
We need to adopt Baker Mayfield’s call for a “killer instinct.” This mentality should apply to both players and coaches. Last week’s first series was markedly different in playcalling and execution compared to the rest of the game. The initial plays were deliberately attacking the defense, with well-timed play-action passes. The designed, delayed wheel route by Emeka Egbuka for the first touchdown was a thing of beauty. However, after that drive, the offense seemed to shift to a more cautious approach, as if we had all the time in the world to build our lead. Before we knew it, we were down and struggling to regain that attacking mindset. Every player, starting with Baker and Tristan Wirfs, needs to embody that “killer instinct” from start to finish. Most importantly, Josh Grizzard must remain in attack mode throughout the game. Getting the passing game going early would be ideal. My dream every week… “throw early so we can run late.” That hasn’t happened much this year.
Bucs’ All Pro Tackle Tristan Wirfs – Photo by: Sportsnet
Bucs on Defense: In Tom Brady’s second season with the Bucs, we faced the Bills at Raymond James Stadium on a December evening. Early on, our defense smothered everything the Bills threw at us, showcasing one of Todd Bowles’ genius defensive performances. However, things changed in the second half after the Bills made their adjustments. The Bucs defense had no answers for the Bills, allowing them to make a big comeback and tie the game at 27-27 before regulation ended, where Brady saved the day with an early overtime touchdown pass.
That game, although a few years back, worries me because Josh Allen had a field day against us and they seemed to figure out something with Coach Bowles defense. The Bucs also held the Bills to 24 points two years ago at Highmark Stadium, which might be our best-case scenario this weekend. We’ll be sending run blitzes early and often on Sunday. While there will be defensive plays made, there will also be breakdowns. I’m hoping Antoine Winfield will be on the field to quarterback the defensive backs, as they will need to play disciplined football against this offense. This is also a game where SirVocea Dennis could face challenges, as he may find himself in tough situations with more space to cover than usual. My hope is that our defense can generate enough splash plays to offset the yards and points the Bills’ offense will likely put up.
BILLS WIN IF…
Bills on Offense: James Cook is an underrated running back—fast, surprisingly strong, and able to get downhill quickly. While I’m not overly concerned about him hurting the Bucs, we need to watch out for zone-read plays where we overcommit to Josh Allen. Ultimately, this game will hinge on Allen’s performance. He’ll either win it or lose it with the ball in his hands, as he extends plays and likely runs more than usual to evade our blitzes. Even without a star-studded receiving corps, he can buy time for his receivers to get open. Tight end Dalton Kincaid has an injured hamstring, and his status remains uncertain, which is significant for the Bucs—though backup Dawson Knox can step in effectively.
Bills’ Running Back James Cook – Photo by: Sports Illustrated
The Bills should look to exploit the Bucs’ early run blitzes on first downs by hitting quick grass routes against zone coverage. They should focus on a short, quick passing game, as our corners will likely play heavy Cover 3 and Cover 4 to prevent getting burned deep. Patience will be key for the Bills as they navigate the few shots they choose to take.
Bills on Defense: The Bills’ run defense has been surprisingly underwhelming in 2025. While that might not be a significant issue this game, given the Bucs’ struggling run offense, they still need to shut down Bucky Irving early if he plays. Keeping him from gaining momentum will be crucial. The Bills’ defense has also been prone to giving up big plays, on the ground and in the air this season. They have to keep those to a minimum and make this Bucs team earn every yard they gain.
The Bills must focus on creating turnovers. They’ve demonstrated their ability to do so, and forcing Baker Mayfield into a fumble or interception could be a game-changer.
FINAL WORD
The Bucs desperately need this win. With a tough matchup against the Rams looming next week, a 6-5 record wouldn’t help keep the Panthers or Falcons at bay. An early knockout punch would be ideal.
But let’s not forget, the Bills also need this game—they rarely lose at home. Here’s hoping I’m wrong about this prediction.
Prediction: Bills 30, Bucs 20
