Complete list of NFC South QBs under contract for 2023: Kyle Trask, Desmond Ridder, Logan Woodside, Matt Corral, Jameis Winston. (Marcus Mariota is projected to be cut). Read that list twice, so you can really appreciate how bad it is.
Top free agents: Lamar Jackson, Daniel Jones, Baker Mayfield, Jimmy Garoppolo, Sam Darnold, Gardner Minshew, Geno Smith, Drew Lock, Teddy Bridgewater. Jackson ain't coming to the NFC South folks. I think some of these guys will resign with their same team - Jones, Smith and Darnold for example.
My 2023 Projected starters:
Bucs: Kyle Trask. I predict Tom Brady will announce his retirement for good within four days of the last game. He knows his abilities are on the decline. He won't want to have the speculation drag on again. He'll let the dust settle for a couple days and announce it to avoid another frenzy of speculation. But Brady will still be impacting the Bucs salary cap to the tune of $35 million. The free agent crop is thin and the Bucs can't afford to spend a lot. In the draft they would be better served to shore up the tackle position rather than a project quarterback. So they'll resign Gabbert and another low budget journeyman type and let them battle it out. In the end I think Trask wins the job. Sleeper: Gardner Minshew. The Bucs will have to stay low budget. Minshew won't cost much and has some moxie.
Panthers: Sam Darnold. They will probably resign Darnold who has out performed expectations, but on the other hand we don't know who the coach will be. So it's far from a sure thing. They could draft a QB, but both they and the Falcons won't be quite bad enough to have a top five pick. They may have to bite the bullet and sign Darnold to a three year contract they will probably be sorry for after about three games. Sleeper: Geno Smith. If the Seahawks don't resign him, he'll go to a team who will guarantee him a starting job. The desperate Panthers could do that. They've already cycled through most of the bad QBs in the league. Who's left?
Falcons: Desmond Ridder. The 3rd Round pick hasn't thrown a TD or INT in his first three games as starter. Early returns are "meh". Mariota has been shelved and will be cut. They may sign or draft a QB, but in the end I think they will continue trying to have a run heavy offense with Ridder at the helm. Sleeper: Will Levis. If the Falcons can snag one of the top QBs in the draft they might as well throw him into the fire next year. To that end, it would serve them well to lose to the Bucs and move up a couple spots.
Saints: Andy Dalton. Hard to project when the Saints will likely have a new coach. They don't have a first round pick. Winston is under contract for 2023 and Dalton isn't, yet who is starting in week 18? Dalton. Message received loud and clear. Winston can be cut Post June 1st and save some cap money. Sleeper: Jimmy Garoppolo. If any team in the division is going to overpay for a QB it will be the Saints. They have to be more sick and tired of having a crappy QB than anybody else, and they are emerging from their cap problems.
Conclusion: Bucs fans may fret about the Bucs starting QB for 2023, but welcome to the club called the NFC South. Nobody is going to sign Lamar Jackson around here, not with the mediocre, cap strapped teams in this division. Sometimes you have to "keep up with the Jones." In the case of the NFC South, it's the opposite. None of the teams will feel an urgency to break the bank for a QB when you have a lot of other stuff to worry about. So there's no reason to worry, Bucs fans. Kyle Trask may turn out to be the best QB in the division, which isn't saying much. But there you have it. Mediocre QBs on mediocre teams, and all of them will have a fair shot at winning the division. The Bucs could make it three straight.
Add Derek Carr to the list of free agents.
Trask is garbage
that being said if Brady leaves us, we are screwed for next year with him counting $35M against cap
Badabing, that $35 mil will screw us anyway. It doesn't go away if Brady signs a new contract. So lets say Brady signs for another $25 mil. That's $60 mil going towards Brady for next year. Of course Brady is not commanding a huge salary as QBs go, so whatever QB we sign is going to have the same impact unless we go bargain basement with somebody like Trask/Minshew/Gabbert.
