Before the analysis on their actual 2020 play, some thoughts broadly about Licht's investment in the OL and their performance during his tenure:
1) Since Licht has been here, we've been north of average, mostly good, in terms of Pass Blocking (between # 7 to # 15 in the NFL...around # 11 overall-ish). However, during that same tenure we've been south of average, mostly awful, in Run Blocking (between # 22 and # 30...around # 26 overall-ish). This has put us in the # 18ish era in terms of NFL ranking (about +/- 3 ranking spots per year) over this period.
This Run Blocking terribleness has been a huge contributor to our Redzone Scoring issues during Licht's tenure. When you stack the Kicking Game woes on top of that (and all of the draft capital investment into the Kicking Game), its bad. We've left a truly crazy amount of points on the field during Licht's tenure because of a crazy number of execution errors/losses by iOL in the running game inside RZ Tight (I've broken down every one of these snaps...its a horror show of iOL issues/losses - the primary culprit - with Benenoch, Pamphile, Sweezy, Jensen, Hawley, EDS, a spate by Cappa in the early part of year 2 when he was starting) on plays that were set up to win. Add in DSmith's execution errors/losses in the running game inside RZ Tight and its a brutal picture (yes, Dot and Marpet had stray losses, but nothing of consequence).
2) For the last many years, we've been top 3ish in the entire NFL in OL $ spending. Presently, we're # 4 in the NFL in Cap Space allocated to OL.
3) Picking Endpoints is always enormously controversial. If people have said over the years "we're not good enough of the OL and we're neglecting the OL because (a) we're not spending premium picks on it and (b) there are absolutely difference-makers on the board," its not addressing their claim of this in 2017, 2018, 2019 (people were also enormously annoyed that we passed over Tunsil in 2016 for a damn near LOCK to bust in VH3) to suddenly grab the endpoint of the 2020 draft where we selected Wirfs and hit.
From 2016, 2017, 2018, and 2019 we never selected OL in the top 2 rounds of the draft despite (i) having an embarrassment of riches in draft capital during that period (no one else is even close) and (ii) many, many difference-makers being on the board during all of those 1st and 2nd round picks.
Its more than fair (because its true) to say the following:
During the 4 year interval of 2016 through 2019, we had a slightly below average OL, yet we neglected to make a single pick in rounds 1 and 2 toward the OL, despite a huge number of promising prospects on the board (with a ridiculous number turning out to be difference-makers, especially in round 2).
Tunsil
Decker
Ramczyk
Bolles
Moton
McGlinchey
Ragnow
Wynn
Smith
Daniels
O'neil
Risner
Jenkins
McCoy
14 players were on the board during that era that would could have picked 1st or 2nd round that would have been instant and downstream upgrades for those positions and which, in turn, would have amplified the play around them.
Forgetting Tunsil in 2016 or Ramczyk in 2017, things get TRULY AWFUL when you look at round 2 during that era (where I think most of us figured we would be a lock to pick 1 or 2 OL). Sub Aguayo, Evans, Jones, Stewart, or SMB for any one of those 7 guys in the 2nd round above? We're a significantly better football team. And its not just that, it was the intuitive pick at the time.
4) The Free Agency situation with OL hasn't been bad...its been beyond terrible. And its not just been beyond terrible because of Cuts or terrible Free Agency selections/whiffs. Its been bad as well because (a) the "band-aid approach" has to have contributed to us not selecting any of those guys above in the first 2 rounds and, (b) who Licht neglected to pick up (instead paying big contracts to terrible players). Failing to sign FA Center Alex Mack in 2016 was one of Licht's biggest failures in his tenure in my opinion. He was the best or top 2 Center in the league and he signed for relative peanuts to a division rival, anchoring a huge increase in functional OL play (including a Super Bowl run).
5) Then you have to consider the 3 late round utter whiffs of wasted draft capital (where we could have spent it on DBs, LBs, RBs...guys that are going to bulwark your Special Teams units and have a considerably better chance of hitting than OL); Edwards, Pamphile, Benenoch (guys that aren't even depth-worthy NFL players) that are supposed to soften the blow and make it look like we've invested enough draft capital and injected youth into the ranks to ensure optimal OL play during this interval.
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Alright, where are we presently in 2020 in terms of OL play.
1) Sacks are overwhelmingly a QB stat. Compare 2019 to 2020 (where we've subbed Dotson, a good Pass Protector, for Wirfs who has been great in Pass Protection.
In 2019, FBO and PFF had us around 7-11 in Pass Blocking.
The below is taking QB, TE, RB out of the equation. These are OL only #s.
We ended up # 8 in OL Efficiency in Pass Blocking w/ a Slash Line of (Sacks/Hits/Hurries) 21/30/113 = 164 Pressures
Where are we in 2020?
#10 w/ a Slash Line of 13/47/77 = 137 Pressures.
Overwhelmingly we've traded Sacks and Pressures out for Hits. Which is intuitive. Brady is (a) getting rid of the ball before the negative play actualizes (the Sack) and (b) taking more Hits on certain plays because of an inability/unwillingness to move in the pocket or flat out escape.
What should also be noted in these numbers is the HUGE fortune we've had in health along the OL. We've barely had guys miss games in the last 2 years where other teams above us in the rankings have endured more (sometimes much more) injuries.
So, right now, we're about the #10 Pass Blocking front 5 (OL) in the NFL. That looks right to me. GB, CLV, NO, PIT, LAR, KC, IND, TEN are all deserving of being a top team. Carolina has also been better than us so you can make a strong case that #11 is the appropriate ranking for our Pass Blocking in 2020 in terms of OL only.
2) Run Blocking.
Lets look at some Gross Stats:
1ST DOWN RUSHING PER GAME # 29
YARDS RUSHING PER GAME # 28
TDS RUSHING # 16
Lets look at some Advanced Metrics and Situational Stats/Efficiency.
FBO has us at # 10 DVOA RUSHING, but this conflates Jones Yards After Contact and Forced Missed Tackles in 2020 with Line Contribution. Lets look deeper:
ADJUSTED LINE YARDS # 12
STUFFED RANK (RB tackled at or behind the LoS) # 5
POWER SUCCESS RATE (2nd/3rd/4th and 2 or less to go for 1st D or TD) # 1
Situationally where are we at?
REDZONE EFFICIENCY RUSHING # 6
1ST AND 10 EFFICIENCY # 27
OVERALL EFFICIENCY # 18
Alright, there is a LOT to incorporate right there. Just some crazy data about our running game. Thoughts, observations, and where we should be:
* The Power Success Rate is inflated dramatically because we're WAY below the median in attempts. We're 31 and the median is 45 while the upper echelon teams have 60+ attempts. Still, that % is not just a complete data anomaly due to low # of attempts. We're a legit top tier OL unit when we choose to run the football on 2nd or less to go. The tape absolutely shows it. Given our low # of attempts and conversions, I'd put us at probably around # 5 OL in the NFL here.
* The 1st and 10 Efficiency is a crazy level of terrible and its brutally feeding back into down and distance issues and drives stalling because of the frustratingly high % of 1st down runs that Leftwich has called this year. HOWEVER, there is a not-insignificant % of this Efficiency that is due to Fournette's just terrible running. Our front 5 is not THIS BAD on 1st and 10 in the Running Game. Fournette, on the other hand, actually is. Don't get me wrong, we've had errors and execution losses galore in terms of the front 5 on 1st and 10. Its just brought down further by Fournette.
* The Stuffed Rank is extremely good as well.
All told, those Gross Stats don't matter that much. What matters in the modern NFL Running Game is:
* Overall Efficiency
* Short/Goal to Go Efficiency
* RZ Efficiency
* 1st Down Efficiency
To a lesser degree, 10+ Rushes matters, but its waaaaaaaaay down the totem pole compared to those 3. We're a little south of league average in 10+ Rushes at 19th in the NFL.
I would say that puts us right around # 14 in the NFL in OL play in the running game (just south of FBO's rankings because of (a) the sample size issues and (b) that hugely bad 1st down efficiency, but mitigated somewhat due to Fournette).
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Overall?
I'd put our OL (just the 5) around # 12 (#11 Pass Blocking and # 14 Run Blocking) in the NFL for 2020. I want to say last year I put us at about # 18, so the big difference is (a) "the Brady effect" and (b) Wirfs and Marpet's play (this is Marpet's best year by far).
