OK so very bored this AM. Hope everyone is healthy...
This thread is for the guys that are targeting OL @ 14 in R1. I see a VERY real possibility of 4 OT's going prior to our pick @ 14.
I'll briefly breakdown the picks 1-13 leading up to our pick @ 14.
1. Bengals- Non OL pick
2. Redskins- Non OL pick
3. Lions- Non OL pick
4. Giants- 60-40 the pick is OL. LB Simmons hits on a need and top end ceiling with CB Okudah providing the same ability.
5. Dolphins- Non OL pick. There is a small chance but its gotta be addressed and they have 3 picks in R1 alone. They could opt to either trade up or take a QB later in R1. Still see them nailing down QB early in R1.
6. Chargers- They're rolling with Taylor. Could mean drafting the heir apparent or drafting OL. IMO its one or the other. Right now I'd put them at 90-10 in drafting a QB. Barring trade in front of them they should be able to land Tua or Herbert.
7. Panthers- Non OL pick
8. Cardinals- They could conceivably go WR to give Murray that top end weapon (deep WR draft though- could target Mims early R2). Still right now I'm leaning about 90-10 they go OL even though they re-signed OT Humphries. They would be in a position to grab potentially the 2nd OT off the board.
9. Jags- Non OL pick
10. Browns- Mortal lock to pick OL. Everyone knows the story on them trying to acquire OT Williams from the Redskins. That would make 3 OT's off the board.
11. Jets- This along with the Giants pick are the 2 picks that will decide if we land an OT at 14 (assuming we are targeting that position- hope we are) They could land the top WR in the draft (name your pick, Lamb, Jeudy...) or they could address a need at RT. Free agency will be important to see how teams like the Giants and Jets navigate through the process. OT's Jason Peters and Trent Williams are out there for trade as well. Currently I'd put the Jets at a about 60-40 to go OL and wait to land a WR in R2 with it being such a deep class.
13. Colts- Non OL pick
So as you can see IMO there is a chance but not a good one that we could land one of Willis, Wirfs, Thomas or Becton @ 14.
I'm also of the opinion that OT Josh Jones out of Houston is being SEVERELY slept on. Not the best combine but he just consistently dominates his opponent. I know he's non P5 player but he dominated Oklahoma and has some really good tape.
I wouldn't be upset with the pick at 14 but I LOVE a trade back scenario with the Cowboys (needs at DT Kinlaw and CB Henderson- non OT needs). That would move us behind Denver (WR lock IMO) and Atlanta (non OT pick probably Chaisson) and in front of Miami (strong possibility of them going OL).
Based solely on the value chart a deal with Dallas would balance out as such:
Tampa R1 pick value- 1100
Tampa R3 pick value- 200
Total compensation value- 1300
Dallas R1 pick value- 950
Dallas R2 pick value- 390
Total compensation value- 1340
This would allow us to land IMO a bluechip OT in Josh Jones filling a major need with top end talent and giving us big time firepower for R2 with the 13th and 19th picks in that round. We've got needs at RB, DT and IOL.
Thoughts on you R1 scenarios and this one?
