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Playoff Scenarios

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Theknees
(@theknees)
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Posted by: @bucsbits

"ESPN says the Bucs have a 75 percent probability of hosting a playoff game courtesy of another NFC South crown."

These percentages are done by modeling and have been super inaccurate lately and I am not sure why. 

The Patriots up 21 points had an 93% chance of winning that game at that point but, football doesn't work that way. 

You knew Vrabel's team was going to choke out at home.  That's kinda who the Pats are. 

 


 
Posted : Dec. 15, 2025 10:59 am
Avatar Of Olafsnowfake
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Posted by: @theknees

The Patriots up 21 points had an 93% chance of winning that game at that point but, football doesn't work that way. 

Exactly. Modeling is only as good as the chosen variables.

Winning in Charlotte under these circumstances is tough.  So a loss Sunday and the Bucs don't really control their own destiny?

 

Posted by: @badabingbucs

With a Panthers loss, the Bucs simply must split with the Panthers and end up with same record.  So at 8-9 (both lose to Miami and Seattle in week 17), Bucs would get in 

The Bucs would then need to beat the Panthers at home but only IF Seattle beats the Panthers?


 
Posted : Dec. 15, 2025 11:10 am
Avatar Of Seekpar
(@seekpar)
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First Mate
 

Donkey Hunter is already getting his player props lined up for this one. Bowles defense = $$$.


 
Posted : Dec. 15, 2025 11:17 am
Avatar Of Donkey_Hunter
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Posted by: @seekpar

Donkey Hunter is already getting his player props lined up for this one. Bowles defense = $$$.

Will be hard to top last week’s cash, but let’s try to get that repeat!

 


 
Posted : Dec. 15, 2025 11:24 am
Alldaway 2.0 reacted
Avatar Of Seekpar
(@seekpar)
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Posted by: @donkey_hunter

Posted by: @seekpar

Donkey Hunter is already getting his player props lined up for this one. Bowles defense = $$$.

Will be hard to top last week’s cash, but let’s try to get that repeat!

 

The problem as I see it is that the Panthers don't have much bankable talent on offense other than Dowdle and McMillan.

Evans usually has big games vs the Panthers.

 


 
Posted : Dec. 15, 2025 1:57 pm
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Avatar Of Badabingbucs
(@badabingbucs)
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Posted by: @bucsbits

Posted by: @theknees

The Patriots up 21 points had an 93% chance of winning that game at that point but, football doesn't work that way. 

Exactly. Modeling is only as good as the chosen variables.

Winning in Charlotte under these circumstances is tough.  So a loss Sunday and the Bucs don't really control their own destiny?

 

Posted by: @badabingbucs

With a Panthers loss, the Bucs simply must split with the Panthers and end up with same record.  So at 8-9 (both lose to Miami and Seattle in week 17), Bucs would get in 

The Bucs would then need to beat the Panthers at home but only IF Seattle beats the Panthers?

a loss on Sunday doesn't eliminate Bucs, but they would have to win out.

Both teams are 7-7 and if they both end up at 8-9, assuming a split; Bucs take division; same thing with both at 9-8, Bucs take division

so in a scenario where Panthers win this week, the best they could do is 9-8 and as assuming Bucs split, and Bucs MUST beat Dolphins. 

If Bucs can't beat the Panthers this week, then honestly, not sure if we deserve to be in playoffs.  I mean, how can you not get up for this game where you have a chance to right all the wrongs and take control.  They may not win another game if this happens to be brutally honest

the point spread keeps increasing as it looks like Vegas is thinking a Bucs win on Sunday 

 

 

 


This post was modified 4 weeks ago by BadabingBucs
 
Posted : Dec. 15, 2025 2:57 pm
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Avatar Of Olafsnowfake
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Posted by: @badabingbucs

They may not win another game if this happens to be brutally honest

I think that may not be far off


 
Posted : Dec. 15, 2025 3:30 pm
Alldaway 2.0
(@alldaway)
Posts: 1911
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Posted by: @seekpar

Posted by: @donkey_hunter

Posted by: @seekpar

Donkey Hunter is already getting his player props lined up for this one. Bowles defense = $$$.

Will be hard to top last week’s cash, but let’s try to get that repeat!

 

The problem as I see it is that the Panthers don't have much bankable talent on offense other than Dowdle and McMillan.

Evans usually has big games vs the Panthers.

 

Dowdie/Hubbard may be enough though so this is why the Bucs defense has to stop the run.  

 


 
Posted : Dec. 17, 2025 2:34 am
Avatar Of Olafsnowfake
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Posted by: @alldaway

defense has to stop the run.  

Another area where the defense has underperformed relative to past performance 

the Bucs probably need to stop the run and score early (not really their thing) to have a chance. 


 
Posted : Dec. 17, 2025 11:22 am
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Alldaway 2.0
(@alldaway)
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Yes because if they can not stop the run they have no pathway to the playoffs.  Doesn't matter if the offense is lights out. 


 
Posted : Dec. 19, 2025 7:53 am
Avatar Of Seekpar
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It was 30-14 Rams when I hit the sack last night. Woke up to a surprise Hawks victory in OT 38-37. Hawks #1 seed for now.

Stafford threw for 457 yds and 3 TDs, Nacua 225 rec yds and 2 TDs. If the Bucs do make the playoffs, they probably get the Rams. $$$$$$$


 
Posted : Dec. 19, 2025 8:16 am
Avatar Of Badabingbucs
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Posted by: @seekpar

It was 30-14 Rams when I hit the sack last night. Woke up to a surprise Hawks victory in OT 38-37. Hawks #1 seed for now.

Stafford threw for 457 yds and 3 TDs, Nacua 225 rec yds and 2 TDs. If the Bucs do make the playoffs, they probably get the Rams. $$$$$$$

yeah exactly, honestly, we couldn't beat a high school team at this point but if we do string together some wins here and make playoffs; the Rams are the last team we'd want to face 

 


 
Posted : Dec. 19, 2025 8:19 am
Avatar Of Greattimes
(@badtimes)
Posts: 393
Carpenter
 

Might not have to worry about who the Bucs might face if they don't defeat the Panthers in 2 weeks.


 
Posted : Dec. 21, 2025 9:33 pm
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Avatar Of Badabingbucs
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Posted by: @badtimes

Might not have to worry about who the Bucs might face if they don't defeat the Panthers in 2 weeks.

yeah I don’t see Bucs winning another game 

 


 
Posted : Dec. 21, 2025 10:13 pm
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Alldaway 2.0
(@alldaway)
Posts: 1911
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Yeah talk of playoffs if pointless if they can't win a game. 


 
Posted : Dec. 21, 2025 10:44 pm
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