We are in good shape to make the playoffs. That's the simple fact, gloomers and doomers. We have two winnable home games. Of course we have to win those. If we don't, we certainly don't deserve to be in.
If we win out, these are the scenarios:
IMO the chances the Commanders have a 60% chance to beat the Falcons. The Falcons have 60% chance to beat the Panthers and the Commanders have 60% chance to beat the Cowboys. If you accept those odds...
Scenario A) The Falcons beat the Commanders AND beat the Panthers AND the Commanders beat the Cowboys. If this chain of events happens, the 10-7 Bucs are still eliminated if that trifecta happens. .4 x .6 x .6= 0.144. 14% chance of this trifecta happening.
Scenario B) Commanders beat Falcons. Bucs win division. 60%
Scenario C) Falcons beat Commanders and lose to Panthers. Bucs win division. 16%
Scenario D) Falcons beat Commanders and Panthers, Commanders lose to Cowboys. 10% Bucs get Wildcard by H2H tiebreaker.
The Commanders are probably going to beat the Falcons. But if the Commanders lose then the chance that either the Panthers beat the Falcons or the Cowboys beat the Commanders is not bad either.
If the Bucs win out, they have about an 86% chance of getting in. That's my amateur math, but it can't be too far off. Just win, Bucs!
I like Penix, Tampa kid he can definitely win the next 2
IMO the chances the Commanders have a 60% chance to beat the Falcons
isnt this game only a must win for the Falcons?
IMO the chances the Commanders have a 60% chance to beat the Falcons
isnt this game only a must win for the Falcons?
This game for the Commanders is like our home game vs New Orleans last year
The Commanders also have to win. They'd give up the WC tiebreaker to the Falcons or the Bucs, whichever applies, and they'd then have to beat the Cowboys a tough out and a rivalry game, on the final week. They have a strong incentive to clinch the wild card against the Falcons.IMO the chances the Commanders have a 60% chance to beat the Falcons
isnt this game only a must win for the Falcons?
Saw on NBC we have a 55% chance to make the playoffs
A coin flip isn’t exactly a great situation to be in
the only good news is that the falcons Pennix didn’t do anything great as offense was led by bijan and defense had 2 scores
the bad news is that Washington just had a big game and could have a let down (ie Bucs beating chargers and laying egg against cowboys)
Washington just had a big game and could have a let down (ie Bucs beating chargers and laying egg against cowboys)
this is what worries me
it is as it is, we screw up and now we must hope falcons lose next week. everything else is theory and much less likely
Unlike last year the comeback story doesn't work if the Bucs don't finish strong. So that is what they must do but we need the new faces to step up to the plate for this team to move forward.
Bowles job is on the line with this game, because it's both a "must win" and "should win" game, and it's against the Bucs old OC. It's essentially a playoff game for the Bucs. Although the Panthers are playing pretty well and are motivated, they are an inferior team to the Bucs. That's a triple whammy for Bowles if we lose. They main knock on him is that we simply didn't win the big games this year. This one now becomes "do or die" for Bowles.Unlike last year the comeback story doesn't work if the Bucs don't finish strong. So that is what they must do but we need the new faces to step up to the plate for this team to move forward.
Bowles job is on the line with this game, because it's both a "must win" and "should win" game, and it's against the Bucs old OC. It's essentially a playoff game for the Bucs. Although the Panthers are playing pretty well and are motivated, they are an inferior team to the Bucs. That's a triple whammy for Bowles if we lose. They main knock on him is that we simply didn't win the big games this year. This one now becomes "do or die" for Bowles.Unlike last year the comeback story doesn't work if the Bucs don't finish strong. So that is what they must do but we need the new faces to step up to the plate for this team to move forward.
You mention Bowles repeatedly but I don't see Coen. Maybe I missed it? Because his play calling in fringe FG range has been killing this team the last month. They were able to survive vs the Panthers and Raiders but it cost us the Cowboy game.
I'm just making the point about whether Bowles keeps his job after the season.Bowles job is on the line with this game, because it's both a "must win" and "should win" game, and it's against the Bucs old OC. It's essentially a playoff game for the Bucs. Although the Panthers are playing pretty well and are motivated, they are an inferior team to the Bucs. That's a triple whammy for Bowles if we lose. They main knock on him is that we simply didn't win the big games this year. This one now becomes "do or die" for Bowles.Unlike last year the comeback story doesn't work if the Bucs don't finish strong. So that is what they must do but we need the new faces to step up to the plate for this team to move forward.
You mention Bowles repeatedly but I don't see Coen. Maybe I missed it? Because his play calling in fringe FG range has been killing this team the last month. They were able to survive vs the Panthers and Raiders but it cost us the Cowboy game.
As for Coen, he'll be the likely replacement. The Bucs had 410 yards against Dallas, 134 rushing yards, over 5 yards per carry, and dominated time of possession. Whether he made a couple bad calls or not, the offense did it's job. I do think Coen's success is made possible by the dominant O-line. Licht has done a masterful job of building that O-line, and I don't think Coen would find the same level of success going to another team. He'll be spending a lot of mental energy and draft capital trying to piece together a line and playing conservatively to make up for a bad line or a bad QB. The bloom might come off that rose quickly.
Whether he made a couple bad calls or not, the offense did it's job.
Maybe it’s because of the Bowles v Coen thing but man people have a blind spot when it comes to the offense. I think you could maybe say Coen called a decent game but the offense did not deliver. It started slow and turned the ball over multiple times. That is NOT a winning formula, especially for the Bucs.
the defense definitely struggled, especially down the middle of the field, but it’s not a competition to see which side is to blame lol. The offense had critical turnovers late that were critical because they started slow early.
Whether he made a couple bad calls or not, the offense did it's job.
Maybe it’s because of the Bowles v Coen thing but man people have a blind spot when it comes to the offense. I think you could maybe say Coen called a decent game but the offense did not deliver. It started slow and turned the ball over multiple times. That is NOT a winning formula, especially for the Bucs.
the defense definitely struggled, especially down the middle of the field, but it’s not a competition to see which side is to blame lol. The offense had critical turnovers late that were critical because they started slow early.
huh?
TB’s offense put up 437 yds, 134 rushing/303 passing, 3 TDs.
meanwhile, the defense gave up 23 points in the first half, allowing DAL to score on 5/6 drives.
seems pretty cut and dry to me.
seems pretty cut and dry to me.
you're comparing one to the other. Thats what I was saying is the mistake.
Look at it this way.
allowing DAL to score on 5/6 drives.
The Bucs winning games they come out HOT and grab the lead, but this is how the offense started:
Dallas Drive 1 - FG (win for the D)
BucsDrive 1 - TURNOVER
Dallas Drive 2 - TD - but the offense turned it over at midfield
Bucs Drive 2 - Drive 2 - PUNT
Dallas Drive 3 - Punt (win for the D)
Bucs Drive 3 - TD
Drive 4 - FG
Drive 5 - TD
I am not saying the offense lost the game or the defense lost the game. I am saying the offense came out FLAT and that set the tone for the game. The offense also turned the ball over MULTIPLE times
By the way, the DEFENSE holds the Cowboys to THREE points the entire second half, right? The offense can only manage 10 points because they go PUNT, FG, PUNT, INT, TD, Fumble
Or, if you prefer our 30 PPG offense scores only 24
