Power of Jameis Overshadowing Marcus Mariota's GreatnessJustis Mosqueda March 1, 2015 
Julio Cortez/Associated Press In season, Oregon's Marcus Mariota looked like the safest bet to be the top pick in the 2015 NFL draft. After returning to school for his redshirt junior season, he answered all of the questions he possibly could have in what was effectively his senior year. Only USC's Cody Kessler threw more than his 445 passing attempts while completing more than his completion percentage mark of 68.3 percent.Mariota also threw for 42 touchdowns while only tossing four interceptions. The next-highest touchdown total for a player who threw as many or fewer interceptions was set by Hutson Mason, who connected on 21 scores, half of Mariota's total, and threw four balls to opposing defenses. He also led the FBS in quarterback rating for what ESPN decided was "qualified players," and he led its own passing-efficiency number tabbed Total QBR.With a Heisman Trophy as icing on the cake, it's hard to ask for a better overall year in college football than the one Mariota had, and despite all of that, he's taken a recent tumble down draft boards publicly. Why is this?I think some of it has to do with the first rumor of a recent "buying or selling" piece I wrote. In it, both CBS Sports' Dane Brugler and Mocking the Draft's Dan Kadar said they were being told Jameis Winston, the 2013 Heisman winner, was going to go first overall.One team's personal preference shouldn't be the reason a player "falls," though. In fact, there's plenty of tape that would lead you to believe Mariota's still the top passer in the class over Winston, who threw 18 interceptions. For example, in a 24-19 win over an eventual 7-5 Florida Gators team, Winston totaled four interceptions in the game, equal to Mariota's entire season total. Another factor into Mariota's slip is the quarterback market. If Winston is indeed going to go first overall, the next quarterback-needy team, the New York Jets, doesn't select until sixth overall.The teams in between are the Tennessee Titans, headed at the end of the year by rookie Zach Mettenberger, the Jacksonville Jaguars, who just selected Blake Bortles third overall last draft, the Oakland Raiders, who are led by now-second-year Derek Carr, and the Washington Redskins, who look to be starting Robert Griffin III for his last chance in the nation's capital.According to Chris Landry on WDAE in Tampa, not everyone is even fan of Winston as the top guy. Landry lists off name after name on each side of the debate regarding who in the league is going to bat for each quarterback.Winston's positives over Mariota are negated when digging into Mariota's footage for situational reps where he's asked to perform more as a pro-style guy than a spread passer.What I mean by that is 3rd-and-long situations. Most spread teams are looked at as dink-and-dunk teams that take what is given to them, which is all good and dandy, but when 3rd-and-long comes, a quarterback has to create. That can be via arm or legs, but he must test the defense instead of taking an option short of the sticks.
Credit: Draft Breakdown Take this play for example. Michigan State is known for a quarters-heavy system that breaks up the deep portion of the field in four ways for the safeties and boundary defensive backs. Essentially, the boundary corners are in man-to-man coverage if their guys go deep, while the safeties take the center of the field and have run-game responsibilities.Oregon set up this 3rd-and-10 only about a minute into the game around midfield with a dubs formation. Michigan State showed a 4-2 nickel look.Based on its history with quarters, Mariota assumed he'd have a deep shell of four guys, four men rushing and an underneath shell of the two linebackers and the slot playing zone coverage for about eight yards past the line of scrimmage, where the transition between zone assignments to the deep defenders switches.
Credit: Draft Breakdown The first order of business was a play-action look, trying to see if the short-side safety would bite on the run, which would have opened up yards-after-catch potential for the slot receiver bouncing into the flat. That's the only way the flat receiver was going to get the ball, as he would have likely been well short of a first down in any other situation.When the safety's feet were firmly planted a yard before the marker, Mariota instantly moved to the next read. With two players on the left side occupied with only one vertical threat on that side of the field, the right-side players became the best options. If they could get past the initial level of coverage and turn toward the middle of the field, they'd be in position for Mariota to get them the ball.
Credit: Draft Breakdown Instead of the two linebackers giving him an underneath coverage look, though, they blitzed. Mariota had to move to even let the play develop. On the right you see the two defenders near the flat option while the corner also squeezed his man down the sideline.On the right, that deep transition began. The slot corner passed on his man at the middle of the middle of the field. Both of the receivers started their way inside.
Credit: Draft Breakdown From there, Mariota, still running, managed to fire in a pass to an open receiver downfield. Getting it over the slot player and under the deep defender, the receiver couldn't have asked for a better ball.If you're looking at Mariota from a macro view, he threw the ball to an open receiver just like you'd expect a spread quarterback to do. Missing in that are the nuances of quick-minded play and tools that he had to rely on to make that play. He ruled out two of his potential four options by the time he pulled in the ball from a fake handoff.His ability to pick apart a defense translates to the next level. Both Michigan State and his home conference of the Pac-12 play a massive amount of quarters against Oregon's wide-open offense. As Matt Bowen of Bleacher Report has diagrammed in the past, it's not like Cover 4/quarters is a college gimmick. That's a defense quarterbacks see every game at the next level.One knock of Mariota's is that he hits a lot of one-step quick-hitters. As shown previously, he can clearly do more than that, but his one-step throws provide questions that need to be answered. One is if he's going to be able to drop back and throw, as those passes are more about standing and scanning than syncing up with a downfield target's feet.Limited to the shotgun for all of just a handful of snaps in Eugene, that needs to be answered. I'll say this, though. For a quarterback who can scan a defense pre-snap and during play get the ball out quickly enough in one step, he should progress more when he's actually put into a position to have his feet aligned with a throw, right?It seems like people are betting against the progression of Mariota as a passer, to which I cannot find a cause, as opposed to assuming he'll move a step up when given an opportunity to learn the nuances of the game, which we have evidence of.He was able to put up numbers that no one in Oregon history or in college football this past season could even come close to. While you may think Oregon was loaded with talent in 2014, it had fewer players represented at last week's combine than the 6-7 Miami Hurricanes.Mariota also prevailed despite his four top receivers from 2013 not seeing the field in 2014. The Ducks also lost three of their top offensive tackles at one point this season, forcing a walk-on and freshman into the lineup.There were times, such as the Washington State and the first Arizona matchup, when he was putting the team entirely on his back for stretches. For example, against the Cougars he completed 84 percent of his throws, threw for five touchdowns and rushed for over 50 yards on the ground. Oregon only won that game by one score. That's the level of greatness he had to display to even keep the Ducks in the Pac-12 and national title hunt in the fall.He's also one of the rarest athletes we have the possibility of seeing: a true starting-caliber dual-threat quarterback.According to Mock Draftable, if you view Mariota's workout numbers as a receiver, not even a quarterback, his top comparison is Josh Gordon, who led the NFL in receiving yardage in 2013 and was an All-Pro player. Mariota didn't run a 4.4 40-yard dash (4.52), but he's still up there with the best in the world.My question throughout the process is this: Why is Mariota dropping?Do people want their prospect rankings to mimic what they're hearing from members of the league as opposed to slotting them in by their own opinions? Are people missing Mariota's flashes of in-play progression passing by writing off the offense he came from? Do people not understand that Russell Wilson is largely playing a one-on-one system when he's throwing deep in the Seattle Seahawks' misdirection offense?The answer could be "yes" to any or all of those options. At the end of the day, though, I'm unwavered. Mariota is a special enough talent to warrant the top selection in the draft if I were on the clock with the first pick. link
