Predicting NFL's Biggest 2015 Disappointments at Every Position

Predicting NFL's Biggest 2015 Disappointments at Every Position By Zach Kruse , NFL Analyst Jun 19, 2015 Brian Spurlock-USA TODAY Sports The undeniable optimism of the summer months—when fans of all 32 NFL teams believe in the best-case scenarios—must eventually meet the harsh reality of another long, hard season. Disappointment is as sure as anything in the NFL. Teams fail. Expectations aren't met. Players—both new and old—disappoint. In the following slides, we will take a look at a player from each position with the potential to provide a disappointing 2015 season. Many are players that have changed teams, as new faces often have the greatest probability of failing to meet expectations. Quarterback: Nick Foles, St. Louis RamsMichael Thomas/Associated Press Foles isn't long removed from his breakout 2013 season, when he threw 27 touchdowns against just two interceptions and threatened the single-season passer rating record. But Chip Kelly and the Philadelphia Eagles still had little hesitation in shipping him to St. Louis for the injury-prone Sam Bradford this offseason, which probably isn't a great sign for a quarterback who took a huge step backward in 2014 (10 interceptions, 81.4 passer rating).Foles is limited athletically and now coming off a season-ending shoulder injury, which could be major issues behind a still suspect offensive line in St. Louis. Kelly's offense isn't there to mask his flaws as a player. It would be a surprise if Foles' 2015 season looked more like 2013 than 2014. Honorable mention: Derek Carr, Oakland RaidersCarr has all the upside in the world, but some of his important rookie numbers—such as his completion percentage (58.1) and yards per attempt (5.5)—are still concerning. Having Amari Cooper in Oakland should help his progression. Running Back: Frank Gore, Indianapolis ColtsDarron Cummings/Associated Press Gore has been as steady as they come at the running back position, with eight 1,000-yard seasons over the last nine years and only 12 career games missed due to injury. He can run, catch and block, giving him three-down, workhorse-like potential for an Indianapolis offense expected to finish among the best in the NFL. But Gore's 2015 season doesn't come without concerns. He's now 32 years, and his 10-year career has included almost 2,800 total touches. Only 11 running backs have run for over 1,000 yards in a single season after turning 32, and only one—Ricky Williams in 2009—has done it over the last 10 years. Emmitt Smith once needed 261 grind-it-out carries to total 1,021 yards and three touchdowns at age 32. The rest of the list for age-32 seasons isn't encouraging. Gore is still capable of producing strong numbers, but an injury or a significant regression is probably more likely.Honorable mention: Jonathan Stewart, Carolina PanthersStewart hasn't played 16 games since 2011, and he hasn't received more than 200 carries in a season since 2009. Now the 28-year-old is Carolina's featured back. What could go wrong? Receiver: Kenny Stills, Miami DolphinsLynne Sladky/Associated Press The two-year career arc for Stills paints him as a potential breakout star in 2015, but his city swap from New Orleans to Miami might halt his ascension.Stills finished last season ranked 30th in the NFL in receiving yards with 931, an improvement of almost 300 yards from his rookie season. A deep threat with an emerging skill set, Stills caught almost 80 percent of his targets and averaged nearly 15 yards per reception. However, according to Pro Football Focus, 370 of Still's 931 yards (or almost 40 percent) came on passes thrown 20 yards or more in the air. He's now entering an offense in Miami led by Ryan Tannehill, who has been one of the worst downfield passers in the NFL. Per Mike Tanier of Bleacher Report, Tannehill has completed just 22.7 percent of his 119 20-yard passes since 2013, throwing 10 interceptions against three touchdowns and averaging less than eight yards per attempt. "The stats bear out Ryan Tannehill's reputation as a reluctant, tentative downfield passer; whether the problem is Tannehill or the system is irrelevant, since both are back in Miami this year," Tanier wrote. Stills isn't just a deep threat, but a big part of his game is winning down the field. Unless Tannehill develops as a deep thrower, Stills' massive potential might be diminished. Honorable mention: Jeremy Maclin, Kansas City ChiefsDid you know? Alex Smith has played in at least 10 games seven times in his NFL career. Only once (in 2012) has he helped produce a 1,000-yard receiver (Michael Crabtree, although 564 of his yards came after Colin Kaepernick took over).Offensive Line: Michael Oher, Carolina Panthers Joe Robbins/Getty Images It wasn't going to take much for the Panthers to upgrade on left tackle Byron Bell, the 83rd-ranked offensive tackle (out of 84) at Pro Football Focus in 2014. But don't expect the new man on Cam Newton's blind side to suddenly fix the position. In fact, it's more likely the troubles will continue with Michael Oher playing left tackle. Oher has been a liability in pass protection for most of his NFL career, but especially over the last two seasons. Since 2013, Oher has allowed 93 pressures over just 27 starts—at a rate of almost 3.5 a game. He made all 27 of those starts at right tackle—the less strenuous side for pass blocking—but will now make the switch over to the left side in Carolina. "We did our homework on Michael, and we feel very strongly that he can be an answer for us," Panthers general manager Dave Gettleman said back in March, via Bryan Strickland of the team's official website. "He'll be inserted at left tackle, and we'll go from there."Gettleman doubled down a month later when he took just one offensive lineman in the 2015 NFL draft (fourth-round pick Daryl Williams). The Panthers have gone all in on Oher, a scary proposition for a team that just gave its star quarterback a $100 million contract. Honorable mention: Richie Incognito, Buffalo BillsIncognito is almost 32 years old, and by the time he takes the field Week 1 for Buffalo, he'll be nearly a year-and-a-half removed from playing in a regular-season game. His comeback faces steep odds. Defensive Line: George Johnson, Tampa Bay BuccaneersAndrew Weber-USA TODAY Sports What do you get when you take a rotational player coming off a career year for the league's best defensive line and throw him into a featured role with far less supporting talent and the sudden appearance of expectations? The strong likelihood of disappointment. The Bucs swung a deal this spring for former Lions defensive end George Johnson, who broke out last season with a career-high six sacks in Detroit. The former undrafted free agent played in all 16 games, or five more than he had the previous five years combined. At 27, he is likely entering his athletic prime. The problem for Tampa Bay: Johnson is now penciled in as a starter, and he'll be playing alongside the likes of Jacquies Smith and Akeem Spence. Gerald McCoy is as disruptive as Ndamukong Suh, but the supporting cast for the Bucs is so clearly inferior to the one Johnson thrived in last season. Now, Johnson stands alone as the major addition to a pass rush that finished 2014 tied for 21st in sacks (36). Will the former forgotten man drown in the expectations? Honorable mention: Greg Hardy, Dallas CowboysHis suspension—even if reduced in the coming weeks—is going to cost Hardy a good chunk of next season. He played one game in 2014. How much impact can he realistically be expected to provide after all that time away?Linebacker: Jarvis Jones, Pittsburgh SteelersJustin K. Aller/Getty Images It's now-or-never time for Jarvis Jones, Pittsburgh's first-round pick in the 2013 draft. Gone is Jason Worilds, who led the Steelers in sacks last season but abruptly and unexpectedly retired this offseason. James Harrison is back and prepared to play, but he's 37 years old and Father Time is catching up to him every season. This year's first-round pick, Bud Dupree, is also an edge-rusher. Jones has the opportunity. There's just very little evidence thus far pointing to him making the most of it. Through two seasons, Jones has over three times as many missed games (11) as sacks (3). He's also looked woefully overmatched when on the field. According to Gerry Dulac of the Pittsburgh Post-Gazette, Jones will enter the summer in an "open competition" with Harrison. The bust label will stick if he can't beat out Harrison. And even if he does beat out a veteran in the twilight of his career, Jones is no lock for impact. Disappointment from the former first-rounder looks more likely than a career turnaround. Honorable mention: Jared Allen, Chicago BearsThe Bears hope Vic Fangio's scheme transition will breathe some life back into the Hall of Fame pass-rusher. But at 33 years old and coming off a season in which he battled both illness and injury, Allen isn't a great bet to put up big numbers in the 3-4 defense. Cornerback: Brandon Browner, New Orleans SaintsDerick E. Hingle-USA TODAY Sports The Saints allowed 7.7 yards per attempt and over 250 passing yards per game last season, so adding to the secondary was high on the club's list this spring. The team's answer? Brandon Browner, a 30-year-old penalty machine who received $10 million guaranteed to come to New Orleans. There's no doubt the 6'4", 220-pound Browner can add a physical side to the Saints secondary. But what else? He was flagged 15 times last season—the second-most among cornerbacks—despite playing fewer than 600 snaps and facing only 54 targets. For comparison's sake, consider that Buster Skrine—who led the position with 17 penalties—played nearly 1,200 snaps and saw 123 targets. Browner has also always played in well-stacked secondaries in Seattle and New England. He's being paid to be the man in New Orleans. It's possible he'll now be exposed as the uniquely sized but also coverage-challenged corner the numbers paint him to be. Honorable mention: Davon House, Jacksonville JaguarsThe former Packer has all the physical skills, but he's struggled to stay on the field and his sample size as a featured player is almost nonexistent. The Jags hope he can match up with No. 1 receivers. It's a gamble, to say the least. Safety: Matt Elam, Baltimore RavensSteve Mitchell-USA TODAY Sports The Ravens are saying all the right things about former first-round pick Matt Elam. “Best camp he’s had, bar none. Not even close,” defensive coordinator Dean Pees said, via Garrett Downing of the team's official website. “I expect big things out of Matt. I really do.”Expecting big things from a player coming off such a poor season sounds like a sure way to create disappointment. The No. 32 overall pick in the 2013 draft missed 18 tackles and allowed a passer rating of 120.0 without an interception in 2014. His playing time gradually diminished, with Elam playing fewer than 20 snaps in three of Baltimore's final four games. Young players can turn around their careers. Elam just might in 2015. But his summer hype fading into fall disappointment is still the more likely outcome.Honorable mention: Antrel Rolle, Chicago BearsRolle is an upgrade in Chicago, but that's not saying much. Rolle is now 32 and entering the twilight of his career. Another year of regression from the veteran and the Bears will struggle again at safety in 2015. link