ProFootballFocus.com Oct 3, 2015As with every week, I’ll be giving a primer of all Week 4’s games, as well as highlighting the key matchups. I’ll give you my picks and how confident I am in each, from a betting perspective. The confidence grade is on our patented -2 through +2 scale. Basically, if I give my prediction a positive grade, I feel good about the bet. If it’s zero, I’m on the fence. And if it’s negative, I really don’t like the line either way. For the season, I’m 15-6 on positively graded picks, and 12-15 on all others.Jets (-2) at DolphinsI have picked the Jets to cover every week this year, and I’m not changing my ways just because of a bad loss to the Eagles. This defense is as stout as they come, and the Dolphins offense is a mess right now. Miami’s Dallas Thomas and Jamil Douglas are ranked 68th and 69th amongst guards, and they have to deal with our top-rated 3-4 defensive end in Muhammad Wilkerson. The other matchups that makes me confident in the Jets are the 6-foot-3-inch Eric Decker and 6-foot-4-inch Brandon Marshall going against the 5-foot-10-inch Brent Grimes and 5-foot-9-inch Brice McCain.Prediction: Jets 34, Dolphins 17Confidence grade: +1.5Jaguars at Colts (-9)There are a ton of lines in the 5–10 range this week that really scare me. This is one of them, and for a big reason: the health of Andrew Luck’s shoulder. If it’s fully healthy, I think he builds upon the superb fourth quarter he had against Tennessee, and shreds the Jaguars’ 25th-ranked coverage unit. If it’s not healthy, it’s really a toss-up between two evenly matched teams.Prediction: Colts 30, Jaguars 24Confidence Grade: -1.5Giants at Bills (-5.5)No teams have tried to even test the Bills on the ground this season, and I don’t see the Giants bucking that trend. Opposing offenses have dropped back to pass a ridiculous 165 times in three games against Buffalo, and only the red-hot Tom Brady has come close to having some success. Eli Manning has been getting the ball out in a quick 2.2 seconds so far this season, but outside of Odell Beckham Jr., the results have been nothing special. Victor Cruz isn’t back just yet, and the Giants desperately need him, with 11 drops through three weeks. I expect a heavy dose of Karlos Williams, and that’s a good thing for the BillsPrediction: Bills 27, Giants 17Confidence Grade: 0Panthers (-3) at BuccaneersIt’s time to get to know Josh Norman. The Panthers fourth-year corner currently owns our second-highest coverage grade, and has a 38.8 passer rating against this year. At 6-foot, he should hold up just fine against the Buccaneers’ taller receivers. On the other side, I expect Cam Newton to have his way with the Tampa Bay defense. They have our 15th-ranked coverage unit, but have yet to face a quarterback of Newton’s caliber (with the exception one healthy half from Drew Brees). Beating the Bucs’ zone schemes isn’t as much about receiver talent as it is about quarterback talent, and Newton is playing some of the best football we’ve ever seen from him with a +4.9 season grade.Prediction: Panthers 28, Buccaneers 21Confidence Grade: +0.5For every game.....link
