ProFootballFocus.com Oct 24, 2015As with every week, I’ll be giving a primer of all Week 7 games, as well as highlighting the key matchups. I’ll give you my picks and how confident I am in each, from a betting perspective. The confidence grade is on our patented -2 through +2 scale.Basically, if I give my prediction a positive grade, I feel good about the bet. If it’s zero, I’m on the fence. And if it’s negative, I really don’t like the line either way. For the season, I’m 23-14 on positively-graded picks against the spread, and 25-26-3 on all others.Bills (-4) at JaguarsThis game is ‘at’ the Jaguars for scheduling purposes, but it will be live streamed from London Sunday morning. A change in venue won’t be enough to fix what ails the Jaguars, however. Even though Blake Bortles is lightyears ahead of last season and grading as an average passer, the defense is still Swiss cheese. They currently own the worst team coverage grade in the NFL, and their run defense isn’t far behind at 26th. Even with E.J. Manuel starting, who graded out at -1.0 a week ago, I think Buffalo moves the ball handily against the Jags.Prediction: Bills 30, Jaguars 21Confidence grade: +1Buccaneers at Redskins (-3.5)Good luck predicting the final grades of either of these quarterbacks. Jameis Winston has three games graded at +2 or higher, while two finished -4 or below. Kirk Cousins has one at +2.2, two other slightly positive games, and then three at -1.0 or below. They are all over the map, and it’s unsurprising that both are in the top 10 for most turnover worthy throws. Tampa Bay has fielded a much more consistent rushing attack, though, than Washington, with our second-highest graded running back in Doug Martin, and that gives them the edge in my eyes.Prediction: Buccaneers 27, Redskins 24Confidence grade: -1Falcons (-5.5) at TitansHow good is this Falcons team, really? There are no questions about their offense, which features our highest-graded offensive line, highest-graded wide receiver, and seventh-ranked quarterback. But on defense, they’ve been exposed at times, especially their linebacking corps, which is one of the weakest in the NFL. With Marcus Mariota running the option and play action game, I think the Titans will be able to exploit that; but with his MCL injury, it looks as though he’ll either be limited in his mobility, or not go at all. Zach Mettenberger isn’t a liability by any means at quarterback, but I don’t see him keeping pace with the Falcons’ offense on his own.Prediction: Falcons 34, Titans 21Confidence grade: 0Saints at Colts (-4.5)What happened to Andrew Luck? It’s not just decision making—his accuracy has fallen off a cliff, from a 73.3 accuracy percentage last season to 63.9 percent this season, dead last among starters. The Saints have a weak secondary and run man coverage on 42.9 percent of their defensive snaps, ninth-most in the league. That means there are holes to fit the ball in, but you have to be accurate to do so. Right now, I trust Drew Brees and his 77.8 percent accuracy far more than Luck.Prediction: Saints 35, Colts 31Confidence grade: -1.5For every game.....link
