As crazy as this sounds...I think professional evaluations of players are worse than that of your casual fan. Haven't you noticed that during the draft we usually have fan consensus for many of our picks, just to see the team select a different off the wall player....and then we see the player that we all wanted picked do well on another team and see the guy that we picked flop. It seems so obvious to us casual fans but the professionals seem oblivious....take Blount, Bennett, Selvie...these are just recent examples. Someone posted an in depth "insider" view of player evaluation a week or so ago and after reading it, what I had been noticing all became crystal clear. It all boils down to an old proverb. "Sometimes you miss the forest for the trees." So much emphasis is put on things that don't really matter that it detracts from the only thing that important....whether or not a player is a good football player. Fans, on the other hand, don't care about all the little crap that doesn't matter and are less blinded by peripherals. Jesus....didn't Burfect almost win DPOY. Almost everyone on this board wanted him but he fell like a rock. There are countless other examples as well.
Most people were on the Trent Richardson bandwagon in 2012. Barron hasn't been that great, but I'm very glad that we went with him over Richardson. Claiborne has been about the same. In 2010 a lot of people wanted Eric Berry. He's a good player and all, but he doesn't have the impact that an elite DT does. A lot of us also loved the Bowers and Brian Price pick.
Yea players like Burfict or Greg Hardy are always worth a gamble late. Think the difference is you don't usually hear the casual fan admitting they were wrong on the duds they were picking and trust me no one ever gets them all right.
Most people were on the Trent Richardson bandwagon in 2012. Barron hasn't been that great, but I'm very glad that we went with him over Richardson. Claiborne has been about the same. In 2010 a lot of people wanted Eric Berry. He's a good player and all, but he doesn't have the impact that an elite DT does. A lot of us also loved the Bowers and Brian Price pick.
Good points, but still....feels like they still miss the forest for the trees often enough.
I think to some extent you are right.But that would be more about personal bias and not ticking the wrong people off. Those guys aren't really free to say whatever they think like a layman would.. so in that sense, layman beats out the pros.
Most people were on the Trent Richardson bandwagon in 2012. Barron hasn't been that great, but I'm very glad that we went with him over Richardson. Claiborne has been about the same. In 2010 a lot of people wanted Eric Berry. He's a good player and all, but he doesn't have the impact that an elite DT does. A lot of us also loved the Bowers and Brian Price pick.
To be fair in 12 when the Bucs went on the clock if you polled the redboard we'd probably have Luke Kuechly. Lavonte David was a huge board favorite. As was Doug Martin, but you have to give Dom credit for the trade up. That was a franchise changing type trade for us tbh. I know if I was the gm we would have Alfonszo Dennard (I might have taken him as high as 5th but definitely with our 6th), Bryce Brown (@212), and Vontaze Burfict (@233) in that draft. Eric Berry was an excellent prospect and has also turned into a pretty good pro. Still, I would guess the majority were behind the McCoy pick at the time.I did love the Bowers pick. I was giddy when that name was called. :-[I was ok with the Price pick at the time as well too tbh. I'm not saying I should be making the picks, but I bet if we turned in the card based on polling redboard posters we would have a better record then the Dom administration.
I'm still ticked about watt. He was my favorite player in that draft class.They can make it up to me and draft manziel. All is forgiven.
I'm still ticked about watt. He was my favorite player in that draft class.They can make it up to me and draft manziel. All is forgiven.
JJ? He came out in 11 and the Bucs would have had to trade way up to get him.*but that season would we have taken Jordan if it was a board vote? I know that's who I wanted there (didn't think Clayborn was a bad pick at the time). Bowers would have gone in a landslide with the 2nd round pick. Foster has proven to be a good pick in the 3rd. I don't know if that would have been the board vote or not? I know we wouldn't have been trading away no picks for no Luke Stocker. We'd probably have Tyrod Taylor because by our 5th pick I would have been breaking furniture for him.
Yup. Usually I find a player and stay with it.. my can't miss player this year is manziel, if you haven't seen enough of my posts by now.In watt's case, I would've moved up. Same with manziel in this class. Go get him I say.
Yup. Usually I find a player and stay with it.. my can't miss player this year is manziel, if you haven't seen enough of my posts by now.In watt's case, I would've moved up. Same with manziel in this class. Go get him I say.
No. I do not want to give up 2 #1's and a #2 for JFF and that is what it might take to guarantee it. I want him. I think he MIGHT be great. I could totally see him imploding though. I don't think I'd give up a 1 and a 2 if he slipped down a few spots (*maybe a 1 and a 2 next year if a team is desperate to move down on the clock). At 7, with no Clowney on the board, I would be all over him.
Selective recall for ego preservation. Fans remember the professionals failures and their own successes. There was a poll on ESPN involving a very large number of people in regards to the Manning/Leaf question. Leaf was heavily favored. If you were to ask that exact same group of people today, they would tell you they favored Manning all along - and they would believe what they tell you. Hell, just look at all the people on this forum who bash the Freepologists. There's quite a few of them that were Freepologists themselves just a short time ago. But to hear them tell it, they were right all along. One of those hypocrites is right here in this thread, and his name rhymes with "stenchwarmer."That's just the way the minds of the unselfaware work. They remember their own success and forget their failures to feel better about themselves. They remember the failures of others while forgetting those others' successes, once again for the purpose of feeling better about themselves. It's similar to a process seen in gambling and other addictions called 'euphoric recall,' where the subject's recollections are heavily weighted towards good memories while blocking out bad ones.
Selective recall for ego preservation. Fans remember the professionals failures and their own successes. There was a poll on ESPN involving a very large number of people in regards to the Manning/Leaf question. Leaf was heavily favored. If you were to ask that exact same group of people today, they would tell you they favored Manning all along - and they would believe what they tell you. Hell, just look at all the people on this forum who bash the Freepologists. There's quite a few of them that were Freepologists themselves just a short time ago. But to hear them tell it, they were right all along. One of those hypocrites is right here in this thread, and his name rhymes with "stenchwarmer."That's just the way the minds of the unselfaware work. They remember their own success and forget their failures to feel better about themselves. They remember the failures of others while forgetting those others' successes, once again for the purpose of feeling better about themselves. It's similar to a process seen in gambling and other addictions called 'euphoric recall,' where the subject's recollections are heavily weighted towards good memories while blocking out bad ones.
I dunno man. On draft day, when Freeman was picked....I woulda sworn it was gonna be mutiny. Almost everyone was against the pick. As time went on though a lot of people accepted him and wished him well, and after his 2nd year, he had some bonafide fans. But not on the day he was drafted. It's like someone posted before, I bet the team would be better off, maybe most teams even, if they let fan vote for their picks. The pro's are just too close to the situation I think and can't see things from a detached perspective....it's this same rationale that lead Schiano to continue to run stunts even though it was plain as day to everyone and their mother it wasn't working.
Selective recall for ego preservation. Fans remember the professionals failures and their own successes. There was a poll on ESPN involving a very large number of people in regards to the Manning/Leaf question. Leaf was heavily favored. If you were to ask that exact same group of people today, they would tell you they favored Manning all along - and they would believe what they tell you.That's just the way the minds of the unselfaware work. They remember their own success and forget their failures to feel better about themselves. They remember the failures of others while forgetting those others' successes, once again for the purpose of feeling better about themselves. It's similar to a process seen in gambling and other addictions called 'euphoric recall,' where the subject's recollections are heavily weighted towards good memories while blocking out bad ones.
That's all well and good except you're making this point on a Tampa Bay Buccaneer message board. You're not standing behind a glowing record to argue we couldn't have done better.
I think that in general if you used the Kiper big book to make your picks your results wouldn't be much better or worse than "real" GMs. Truthfully, NFL teams are stunningly bad at what they do. Name another HR gig where you have hundred of hours of video watching someone do the job you are hiring them for, spends hours in personal interviews,spend time measuring and working out players....and among R1 picks it is still a 50-50 crapshoot forget about later rounds picks where darts at a board might be more accurate.
so an average fan can evaluate the talent of a potential football player better than the guys that have experience doing it and get paid? While some fans are intelligent enough to evaluate players, and im sure some of the pros arent great at it, but there is no way that the professionals are inferior to scouting players to a typical fan.Ridiculous statement.
