If it weren't for professional evaluators like Kiper and McShay we'd be all over the board. Let's get real, must of our opinions come from what we've been told by professionals.
I think us as fans rarely look like "geniuses" for a pick, but we don't make many "stupid" picks either because we see the player and make a judgement (Freeman looks shaky in college, Benn doesn't show up in college... why should I think this will change in the NFL?). GMs get themselves into trouble when they over-analyze and project success too much.Seattle, and I think Eric Stokes as well, projects players. It's worked in Seattle, and I'm pretty sure Stokes had a hand in rounds 4 and 5 (Spence and Ghoston were hits, jury is still out on Means). Most fans would have NEVER picked Means, so they'd never look stupid if he washes out, but they'd never look great for the forward thinking either.
I'm not sure if talent evaluation is what caused Blount,Bennett and selfie to leave.The average fan doesn't have to worry about off the field issues or locker room dynamics, but maybe those are overrated?As for freeman, not a lot loved the pick at the time. But didn't everyone think it was a great pick after 2010? I'd guess the board wanted Percy, he's also underperformed IMO.
Harvin just wasn't available. He was good (great for a stretch) when on the field. Plus, Minny got a shit ton more for Percy at the end of the rookie deal then we got for Josh. Another example of where the board was right.
Fans might be able to debate first rounders and second rounders but most fans aren't finding the guys that go from UDFA to starters, then All-Pro.Which fans would have found James Harrison? London Fletcher? John Randle?Look at Mike Iupati... Fans knew before the scouts about this monster of a guard that played for the University of Idaho?
Fans might be able to debate first rounders and second rounders but most fans aren't finding the guys that go from UDFA to starters, then All-Pro.Which fans would have found James Harrison? London Fletcher? John Randle?Look at Mike Iupati... Fans knew before the scouts about this monster of a guard that played for the University of Idaho?
Yeah and the problem is our franchise didn't hit on many of those type guys outside the first 2 rounds either. I agree with all you guys here in theory. A successful and well run front office would do significantly better then it's team's fan forum. I don't think we have over the last 5 years.
so an average fan can evaluate the talent of a potential football player better than the guys that have experience doing it and get paid? While some fans are intelligent enough to evaluate players, and im sure some of the pros arent great at it, but there is no way that the professionals are inferior to scouting players to a typical fan.Ridiculous statement.
Thats exactly what I'm saying, and its not ridiculous. Teams simply over-analyze to the point of detriment IMHO. Just because they are getting paid to do it, and because they are called professionals, doesn't mean the system they use to evaluate is sound in a practical way....for Christs sake, people get PAID to run the government, doesn't mean they have a clue what they are doing.
We, as fans don't have a clue. Look, it's a lot of fun to play keyboard GM and make a list of players we love, but the reality is when we're wrong, it's because we don't know what we're talking about and when we're right, it's because we don't know what we're talking but got lucky.
The thing I don't understand when it comes to drafting is how you pass on a player with tremendous talent and production in late rounds due to character issues. I can understand in early rounds but late rounds it's worth the risk. AKA Burfict, Selvie, Hardy, Alfonzo Dennard and so on. Those are all players I don't see how you could pass on in the fifth round.
Basically, nothing is 100% accurate or guaranteed to be successful.Just like anything in the NFL, 100s of things must align to make any of the evaluations pro or amateur be successful.
Selvie wasn't high risk character wise IIRC. His measurables sucked and do did his last two years of college.
We, as fans don't have a clue. Look, it's a lot of fun to play keyboard GM and make a list of players we love, but the reality is when we're wrong, it's because we don't know what we're talking about and when we're right, it's because we don't know what we're talking but got lucky.
I don't agree. I know it sounds like a crazy assertion, but every year the proof is out there on the field. There's too many factors to be considered by pro scouts that whether or not the player is actually any good at football makes up less and less of the decision making process.
Selvie wasn't high risk character wise IIRC. His measurables sucked and do did his last two years of college.
so did his first 3 years of nfl.
We, as fans don't have a clue. Look, it's a lot of fun to play keyboard GM and make a list of players we love, but the reality is when we're wrong, it's because we don't know what we're talking about and when we're right, it's because we don't know what we're talking but got lucky.
I don't agree. I know it sounds like a crazy assertion, but every year the proof is out there on the field. There's too many factors to be considered by pro scouts that whether or not the player is actually any good at football makes up less and less of the decision making process.
Yeah, because their job is hard and there are a ton of variables that go into a player being good or not. Just because they screw up doesn't mean fans are even close to as qualified to do it.
We, as fans don't have a clue. Look, it's a lot of fun to play keyboard GM and make a list of players we love, but the reality is when we're wrong, it's because we don't know what we're talking about and when we're right, it's because we don't know what we're talking but got lucky.
Agreed.I don't believe that fans can do a better job than the people they pretend to be like when evaluating talent.Fans watch and make decisions on emotion with no real consequence. Personnel departments make decisions and evaluate talent from the standpoint of this my livelihood on the line. If a scout lays all of his cards down on a QB and that guy turns out to be Ryan Leaf, he could probably lose his job. Fans don't have that big of an investment other than emotion.
