Sorry if this is in another thread.
Even though the offseason still presents plenty of FA opportunities, I'll assume that we're mostly done due to cap reasons. Following is my expectations on how position groupings will perform. I'm factoring in the normal transition for rookies. Significant injuries will occur that will greatly impact actual performance; nevertheless, I'll mostly ignore that reality since it's impossible to project which positions will be most affected. FWIW, this team has one of the largest gaps between starter and replacement player that I remember seeing and we're extremely vulnerable. If we're lucky, the injury bug will hit our deepest areas, i.e. TE, but who knows.
OFFENSE
QB: 2019: C- 2020: B SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
Jameis did a lot of great things, but they don't overcome his turnovers, inaccuracy, and poor decisions. Based on age and new system, I think TB12 will perform around a B level... he probably won't be great, but he'll provide an upgrade and make the rest of the team better.
RB: 2019: D- 2020: D ~BREAKEVEN
Rojo should continue his improvement; however this team still lacks a pass blocker/receiver that projects to be average or better. For all the talk of Vaughn as a 3rd down back, I don't see much tape to support the notion that he'll improve this area and rookies are notorious for their inability to pick up the blitz. At this point, Dare appears to be slotted for increased playing time, and that doesn't inspire me. I appreciate the increased athleticism from the rooks; nevertheless, Peyton Barber brought toughness, determination, and professionalism. I see much higher potential from the group and Rojo should improve (which is good), but a sober look doesn't project great improvement in 2020 based on learning curves. Improved OL play should help.
WR: 2019: A 2020: A- ~BREAKEVEN
Great starters. Perriman was good in the 2nd half of season and his speed/separation will be missed. I see Miller/Watson as a downgrade from Perriman and TJ's game may not translate to the NFL if he is too slow.
TE: 2019: C- 2020: A SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
The talent was there in 2019, but it wasn't really used. The big question relates to OJ's work ethic/desire. There have been whispers, but that is a total unknown for me. Brate is a great safety valve who can move the chains. He's a luxury at TE2, let alone TE3. Based on work ethic and skillset, I expect Gronk to be above average when healthy. Based on TB12's history and talent depth, I assume the TE will be much more utilized in 2020 and may be utilized often as WR3. If Arians doesn't adjust to his roster's strengths, trades should be pursued and the offensive coaching staff seriously questioned. We have too many resources invested in this position... it needs to have more snaps than (or replace) WR3 (which is a major stretch for Arians). The utilization of TEs may be the most intriguing mystery of 2020 for me.
OT: 2019: C 2020: B IMPROVEMENT
D. Smith frustrates me, but graded as above average in 2019. His best attribute is his durability which is a great asset for a LT. Wirfs should be a significant upgrade over Dotson; nevertheless, it's usually tough for rookies to adjust to the NFL and he should play better near the end of the year. Haeg is a significant upgrade as swing tackle. Demar, I always liked you and think you got shafted by your original agent; nevertheless, your starting days are over. OTs should benefit significantly from Brady's quicker processing.
iOL: 2019: B- 2020: B+ IMPROVEMENT
Marpet is strong. Jensen played well and didn't get the appreciation he deserves for significantly upgraded play in Y2 of his contract. His toughness is highly beneficial and he improved on avoiding stupid penalties. Cappa was the weak link, but improved greatly from 2018 and showed tremendous heart. Haeg is solid depth here as well. I'm probably giving the iOL too much credit, but I'm much higher on Cappa's growth curve than most and believe that he'll blossom in 2020, especially since Wirfs should be an upgrade beside him and they should benefit tremendously from Brady's superior ability at reading defenses and making adjustments. Cappa won me over by playing with a broken arm :-) I hope I'm right.
DEFENSE
Edge: 2019: A 2020: B+ SLIGHT DECLINE
I believe the loss of Nassib hurts (but is understandable). There's a reason that his teammates voted him as captain. Regardless, Shaq and JPP are strong talents. Nelson is highly questionable for the ~25% of snaps that he'll probably play. It's hard to envision Shaq matching 2019, but I don't see him has a 1 year wonder and reduced production may be offset by improved interior blitzing. JPP concerns me since his tackling and pressures (not sacks) seemed to regress in my eyes, but it may have been injury/conditioning related and not age related. I believe this unit will continue to be strong but has the highest risk for a significant reduction of performance from 2019.
DL: 2019: A- 2020:A- BREAKEVEN
These guys are not pass rushers, but they do their job for this scheme. Our DL was the primary reason that we had the #1 rush defense in the league and they keep the LBs clean. Vea may be the most underrated player in the league and I see him as the primary cog that makes this entire defense function. Suh gives the team what it needs at his position and has improved our intensity, even if he can't really pressure the QB anymore. Age may reduce his output, but I believe he has another strong year ahead of him. It's great that no one ever talks about Gholston, since that means he's doing his job and isn't making mistakes. These guys get little love, but they enable the Edge and iLBs to excel. We need a replacement for Suh, but that will wait until 2021.
iLBs: 2019: B 2020: A IMPROVEMENT
LVD is a stud and will finally make the Pro Bowl this year. He's still got the skills. White started poorly and significantly improved in the 2nd half of the season. I expect White to improve significantly in year two so that the Bucs will have the best iOL duo in the league (in addition to best WR duo and maybe TE duo). I think Minter is overrated and Cichy may not have any knees left so we can't afford an injury.
CBs: 2019: C- 2020: B SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
It was a tale of 2 seasons in 2019... from the worst CB unit in the NFL to one of the better ones in the 2nd half. Davis and Dean played great down the stretch, though some of that was against back-up QBs and I see both as higher injury risks than most of our players. We'd be greatly compromised if either go down to injury. The jury is still out on SMB. He improved, but still has a long way to go and needs to improve his tackling. This unit should benefit from increased reps in Bowles' scheme, but I have a gnawing concern about injuries that may return this group to a liability for some games.
S: 2019: F- 2020:C- SIGNIFICANT IMPROVEMENT
I spent a lot of time before the draft analyzing the performance of our safeties and I was appalled at their performance. I thought they were bad, but they were worse than I feared. I view safeties and RBs as the lowest value positions, but you can't afford a complete liability. I was thrilled with the Winfield pick, but it's scary to put all your hopes on a rookie with a significant injury history. Whitehead was fine in coverage, but his tackling stunk. I believe he's best suited to be a quality backup. Adams tackled well, but was a complete liability in coverage. I hope Edwards will have his head medically removed from his arse in year 2. I believe that Winfield can be an above average safety, but that's a big ask in year 1. I believe we still need to upgrade the second safety, but that won't happen in 2020. I see significant improvement if Winfield stays on the field so that our Safety group will be below average as opposed to putrid.
Overall, this team looks to be vastly superior to the 2019 team and is a legitimate contender. Injuries could destroy us due to lack of quality depth at critical positions, especially if it's Brady (duh), Shaq/JPP, Vea, Davis/Dean, and/or Winfield. Haeg may be able to adequately hold us over if we only have one injury on the OL at any one time.
Enjoy ripping my thoughts to shreds :-)
