Quarterbacks playing better/worse than their box-score stats suggest
BY STEVE PALAZZOLO ProFootballFocus.com
OCT 9, 2019
The assault on traditional boxscore stats continues as we dive into PFF’s play-by-play grading to show which quarterbacks have inflated stat lines through five weeks of the season. When it comes to the passing game, most fans and analysts look to five stats (completions, attempts, yards, touchdowns and interceptions) and the resulting stats that are based off those five (completion percentage, yards per attempt and passer rating) to paint the picture of a quarterback’s performance.
While the quarterback is still the main driver of those stats, the play-calling, supporting cast and opposing defense all have huge parts in influencing the numbers, especially in small sample sizes. Even with more advanced stats that try to add more context to the numbers, many still fall into the “team stat” category, and isolation of a quarterback’s role in each play is difficult without PFF grading and play-by-play context. The other piece of a quarterback’s stat line that is rarely mentioned is fumbles, and many of the following examples involve players who have shown poor ball security and put the ball on the ground, but unlike interceptions, these plays do not affect the traditional stats. Let’s take a look.
STATS INFLATED (MIN. 100 ATTEMPTS)
Jameis Winston, Tampa Bay Buccaneers
PFF passing grade: 60.9 (24th)
Passer rating: 97.2 (15th)
Annually one of the most volatile quarterbacks in the league, Winston is always at the high end of positively graded and negatively graded throws, and this year is no different. He ranks fifth in positively graded throws and sixth in percentage of negatively graded throws, with the other constant being Winston’s turnover-worthy throw percentage, which is tied for first at 6.1%. Winston has 13 turnover-worthy throws with only five interceptions to show of them, and that is aiding in his 97.2 passer rating this season.
Like the others on the list, Winston’s ball security has been an issue in the pocket as he has multiple bad fumbles that will not show up in the stats.
And Winston has made his fair share of poor decisions.
Here, he throws late in the end zone for what should have been an easy interception.
Not all interceptions are created equally, and this decision under pressure is as bad as it gets for Winston.
And here’s one that Winston got away with, throwing another poor pass for a dropped interception that easily could have been a pick-6 if it was caught.
Winston’s aggressiveness continues to give Tampa Bay to chance to win every week, but it also leads to a number of risky plays, many of which have been on the lowest end of the PFF grading scale so far this season.
PLAYING BETTER THAN STATS
Carson Wentz, Philadelphia Eagles
PFF passing grade: 88.4 (2nd)
Passer rating: 94.3 (19th)
https://www.pff.com/news/nfl-quarterbacks-playing-better-worse-than-box-score-stats
