The popular narrative during the 2013 season was that Josh McCown came out of nowhere to be a different player than he ever was before. Well, what if he didn't and had already shown significant signs of improvement? The crux of this argument is that McCown's two and a half game stint in 2011 was a sign that he had already gotten a lot better. Prior to 2011, the last time he had any meaningful NFL game action was in 2007 with the Raiders. That season he posted a 58.4 completion percentage, 6.1 yards per attempt, a 10/11 TD/INT ratio, and a 69.4 QB rating. None of those numbers are good and they're mostly in line with everything he did prior in his career. But then look at his 2011 numbers. He posted a 63.6 completion percentage, which is very good. Among qualified passers in 2011, he would have ranked #6 in the NFL. He posted a 7.5 yards per attempt, which, again, is pretty good. Among qualified passers in 2011, he would have ranked #14. The biggest problem with his numbers is he only threw 2 TDs to 4 INTs, which killed his passer rating, which was only 68.3, in line with the rest of his career. But some people will tell you TDs and INTs aren't the greatest indicators for who is getting the job done on a pass-by-pass basis because a QB only throws a TD or INT on roughly 10% of the passes he throws. What happens on the other 90%? McCown threw 55 passes in 2011. So what would happen if McCown threw 54 of them exactly the way he did and the 55th resulted in one more TD and one less INT? His QB rating jumps up to 83.9. What if you flip flopped his TDs and INTs and left everything else the same? Now he's at 99.6. It's entirely arguable that McCown was only two passes away from being the player he was in 2013 back in 2011.
