Licht's a bad GM, and the Bucs need to move on at season's end.
I'm going to lay out a bunch of arguments why. But I have a caveat to start. I'm going to lambast Licht for a lot of mistakes, but every GM will make some mistakes. In some of the examples, Licht just took a gamble and lost. Every GM will do this. So just be aware that I'm presenting the TOTALITY of his mistakes, not saying that he's a bad GM because he made a single mistake. He made a LOT of mistakes.
Licht's a bad GM because he fundamentally doesn't understand draft value and doesn't understand how to construct a team. It's not just that he makes mistakes, but makes big mistakes and doesn't seem to learn from them. And he makes boneheaded mistakes.
As you read and agree/disagree, think about this in terms of player evaluation not fandom. You may be a big fan of Winston and want him to succeed (I do too), but we're evaluating based on results as of Nov. 14, 2017. Not what could or should or might be. And you'll inevitably disagree with some of my arguments. So while not agreeing with every point, think about the totality of how bad Licht has been.
Let's go!
The Lovie Years
1) Johnson, Collins, Verner and McCown
Some will say that Lovie is more to blame than Licht, that early in Lovie's tenure he held the power. I don't completely agree, but fair enough. This one isn't primarily on Licht, but he still signed these guys to ridiculous contracts. It's hard to hit on all your free agents. It's also hard to bust on this many. Either Licht was just a yes-man, or he at least signed off on these picks. Neither are good hats for Licht to wear.
2) Letting go of Penn and Zuttah
In some respects, this is the mistake that really sits on Licht. Penn in particular had a number of years of high level play. He let him walk and paid Collins more. Zuttah was also quite productive for at least a couple more years.
This is how bad teams, and bad GMs, stay bad. They filled Penn's roster spot with Collins. But because Collins was so bad, they had to spend a high draft pick. Because they whiffed on the evaluation (and ~50% of picks bust) Smith is a bust. So they've spent millions and a 2nd round pick to fix a problem they created. The Bucs will need to spend another high pick to try again to fix this mistake.
If the Bucs had just kept Penn, they would have a good LT and could've spent the picks and money elsewhere. Instead, Licht created a massive hole and is burning cash and picks to fix it.
3) Trading Barron
I'm sure Lovie had a hand in this as well. But rather than find a role for a player who had flashed talent, they traded him for a late round pick. With the Rams, per PFF, Barron has graded out as an above-average LB. Lovie/Licht whiffed again. The one positive is that one of these picks went into the trade up for Marpet.
4) Drafting Winston
I know I'm going to get some push back here. But as of today, Winston in his 3rd year is a below average NFL QB. And I'm talking about his career and his 2017 season pre-injury. There’s also some suggestion the OL is to blame, but they’ve been excellent in pass blocking. Winston is actually holding the ball longer than league average as well.
Winston's young, clearly has loads of talent, and can turn this around. But as of right now, Nov. 14, 2017 Winston, is not a franchise QB. Hopefully he can become one under a new coach. And if he does, this criticism disappears. But GM's usually get one shot to pick a franchise QB, and Licht may have blown it.
This may seem nit-picky to some. But I'll remind you that under Licht's tenure Wentz, Prescott, Mariota, Watson, Goff, and Carr all entered the league.
The Koetter Years
5) Hiring Koetter
This is obvious now. Koetter should not have been an NFL coach. There's a reason GM's usually get one shot to hire a coach. And he whiffed badly. While Koetter is a pretty good OC, he's in over his head as an HC.
6) Drafting Aguayo
This almost feels unfair. But I'll again point out that not only did they whiff on the evaluation (so badly that he didn't even make two seasons) but there was ZERO chance this could be a good pick given the scarce draft resources invested. Drafting well is about value and positional scarcity. While not the worst pick, this was the stupidest pick in Buccaneers draft history.
It's easy to assume that Licht learned from this. But – I don’t think he did. Here are his comments after releasing Aguayo (on what he learned):
“What did I learn from this? I’ve said this before, but when we took him, we essentially anointed him. If I could do it again, I would have gone back and brought in competition to challenge him. I look back on that a lot. Roberto is a great kid, but the magnitude of that position, and the pressure on a 21-year-old—his performance is affecting the lives of men who have families to support. That got tough.”
7) Signing Folk
Bad teams stay bad by compounding bad mistakes. This is how the Browns are the Browns and the Bucs are the Bucs. The Bucs had an above average kicker in Barth they released after drafting Aguayo (Matt Bryant's release was worse). When Aguayo busted, they now needed to sign another kicker. So they signed the worst FA kicker in 2017. Let me reiterate - if they had signed any other FA kicker in 2017 they would have been far better than Folk. EVERY SINGLE FA kicker was better in 2017 than Folk. By a lot.
So Licht, like with Penn, took an area that wasn't a problem and turned it into a disaster.
8) Martin's Contract
Licht was admittedly in a tough place with Martin. He had a career year after becoming a FA. This also is far from Licht's biggest mistake. And I also like Martin.
But the reality is that they gave a big contract to a player that apparently everyone at One Buc knew had some drug issues. Luckily they were able to void guarantees because of it.
The end result is that Martin was the 3rd highest paid RB in 2016 and is the 7th highest paid in 2017.
9) Mchnichols
Taking Mchnichols in the 5th. Somehow, in the most talented RB draft in recent memory Licht comes out with a big fat ZERO. There are even UDFAs who are having a lot of success (Aaron Jones, Matt Breida, James Conner, etc.) This was the perfect storm for the Bucs to shore up this position. With a talented draft and uncertainty around Martin, there were a number of later round RBs available. And Licht got none.
10) Backup & young RBs in general
Of all the positions in the NFL, the RB position is the easiest to find (after kickers/punters). Yet the Bucs have no talent behind Martin. They've wasted a pick on Sims and have little to show from the rest of their players. There are young RBs all around the league flashing (because it's easy to find). Yet the Bucs have zero young RB talent on the roster.
11) Evans over OBJ
This is a minor point, and in some respects not a criticism. And some fans will be upset about this point. Just pointing out that Licht had a slight miss. Evans is a great WR and top 5 in the NFL. Good pick by Licht. But he’s also the 2nd best WR in that class. OBJ has outperformed Evans in every single category and is objectively a better WR. So Licht made a good pick in Evans, but missed the even better WR.
12) Humphries the UDFA
Licht gets a lot of credit for finding Humphries. I like him, he’s a very good slot WR and has done well in the NFL. But when praising Licht for this move, we need to be aware that most slot WRs are UDFAs. Whether Edelman or Beasley, you can get decent production from these types of players. It’s a good find, but it’s not an amazing move. Licht did what every other GM around the NFL does. I guess that’s a plus?
13) Donovan Smith
Not much more needs to be said here. Was widely questioned as a pick coming out. Has been horrible. Compounding mistakes.
14) J.R. Sweezy
While Carroll and Tom Cable are fans of Sweezy’s, he was a bad guard on a bad offensive line. Even moderately supportive analysts like the excellent Dan Kelly do not think he’s particularly good (or developed very much). Licht overpaid for a bad player, hoping he’d become something he never was.
Bad GMs overpay by overprojecting talent.
15) VH3
This has been discussed to death. Another busted pick.
16) Baker at NT
This is one of my major criticisms of Licht. This was a straight, blatant, inexcusable whiff on a player. The Bucs expected Baker to be run-stuffing NT who could take on double teams. This would allow Smith to be more creative in his schemes and free up McCoy and the DEs.
Unfortunately, this is not the player Baker was or is. He’s more of a 3-tech and neither has the ability nor stamina to hold up to regular double teams. He’ s also not particularly effective as a run defender. And when you look at any scouting reports from his time at Washington, this was widely known. This was not a secret. Baker was brought here to be a player he never was.
It’s moves like this that make me think Licht doesn’t know what he’s doing. That all these mistakes aren’t just bad luck but the end result of a GM and staff who struggle to correctly identify and project players.
17) Pass Rush
Licht has failed in addressing the pass rush here and adding the necessary pieces. Smith will deservedly be fired at the end of the season, but it’s near impossible to have an effective defense with zero pass rush.
Bizarrely, Licht went into 2017 with a 32 year old, injury-prone, one year wonder and two injured, limited production DEs. While many media and fans were hopeful, it would just take one thing going wrong for this pass rush to fall apart. Unfortunately, everything has gone wrong as Jaq Smith and Spence are injured and Ayers has been the player he’s always been. On top of this players like Gholston seem to have regressed and there’s no young talent available beneath them.
Outside of the run-stuffer Gholston and Spence, the cupboard is beyond bare at DE. There are no up-and-comers and no production. This is a shame as McCoy is still playing at an elite level and would really help (and be helped) by even average DE play.
P.S. Interestingly, Jaq Smith has played for Detroit in two games this year and notched some pressures.
Licht’s General Mistakes
18) Trading Up
Licht loves to trade up. There’s nothing wrong with doing so occasionally. But Licht trades up with great regularity. No GM can regularly beat the draft – it’s never been done. So good GMs get around this by accumulating picks and finding value. By constantly trading up, Licht seems to believe that he can beat the draft.
The Bucs have had 7-6-7-6 picks in his tenure. Adding in comp picks, the average team has 7.9 picks and the Bucs have had 6.5 with Licht. This is a big reason why the Bucs are lacking depth. Licht is arrogant.
19) High Roller
Licht has picked in the top 10 3 years out of 4. While it’s easy to point to his hits (Evans, Marpet, etc.), if Licht is an above-average drafter he should be hitting on more picks than he is. Drafting so high is a huge advantage to a good drafter, which Licht is not.
20) Ignored the Trenches
Licht has made a mess of the trenches on both sides of the ball. 3/4 of the best players on the OL/DL he inherited (McCoy, Mcdonald and Dotson). The one upgrade was Marpet, but he also released Penn.
Just look at Licht’s premium picks: 2 TEs, 2 WR, 1 RB, 1 QB, 2 OL, 1 DE, 2 DB, 1 LB, 1 K. I’m mocking, but he’s spent as many premium picks on Kickers as he has defensive linemen. Outside of the premium picks, he’s picked only 4 trench players (3 OL, 1 DT).
Statistically under Licht the Bucs are right near the bottom of the NFL in picks spent on the trenches.
21) Win Now!
Licht keeps thinking this team is ready to win now. He is very poor at evaluating a team. This is based on both what he says and what he does.
In 2014 under Lovie he thought this roster was ready to win now.
In 2016 he spent two premium picks on a kicker because this team was ready to win now. You only think that makes sense if you’re a kicker away from being a playoff team. Even then you’re an idiot.
In 2017, he thought he’d assembled a playoff roster.
Licht continuously misjudges the talent on this team. He has never constructed a playoff roster and clearly has no idea what one looks like.
22) 20-37
That’s Jason Licht’s record. That’s a 35% winner percentage! Guess how many games Dominik won?
35%.
23) Licht’s Draft History
Have a look: https://www.pro-football-reference.com/teams/tam/draft.htm
It’s really ugly. Ignore 2017 (its far too early to tell). But the rest of the drafts are UGLY. Every GM will miss on a lot of picks. That’s just how it is. But good GMs will also have drafts where they knock it out of the park. Licht has never had that draft. He just has a ton of misses with a couple hits.
If Winston and Kwon don’t turn it around, Licht’s 3 years of drafting will yield Evans, Marpet, and? Hopefully Smith and Spence keep developing. And that’s with Licht picking in the top 10.
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Conclusion: You won't agree with me on every point. Maybe you'll think I also missed some mistakes of Licht. But the point is: Licht has made a lot of boneheaded decisions. More boneheaded decisions than any GM should make.
And it's not just the mistakes, its the inability to learn. It's the arrogance and bad drafting philosophy.
When the season ends, Licht needs to be the first to go. He's taken a golden opportunity and laid a wooden egg.
