One of the most interesting debates on the forum this season and around town, is should the Buccaneers pick a linebacker like D. White at pick 5. Conventional wisdom would suggest, this is not proficient usage of positional value on the draft charts. There have been a lot of alphas coming out in the past 10-20 years or so, and some buzz around the town is that Devin *may* become one, as he is a very strong prospect at the position. I'm not just saying this though, lets look around the league at what writers/scouts are suggesting about White's potential impact as a prospect:
Walter Football, "He is your quintessential linebacker who is a physical force against the run, covers ground in pass defense, and is a team leader who sets the tone for a violent, intimidating defense"
CBS Sports, "A physical tackler with sideline-to-sideline speed, White is exactly what NFL teams are looking for in a linebacker. Sometimes a step slow on play-action reads -- but can often make up for it with speed, quickness and athleticism. -- RW"
Lance Zierlein, "White's work ethic, competitiveness, and rare play speed are elements that can't be taught and should push him into an early starter's role and a successful NFL career."
Matt Miller, "He can stack up against the run, chase down outside plays, spy mobile quarterbacks or cover the middle of the field on pass plays"
McShay and Kiper are projecting White to be picked at the 5th spot in Tampa and do not seem to be upset about that in terms of positional value. With all of this said, I wanted to bring to question conventional wisdom about positional value and the potential for a talented middle backer. In the debates we bring up linebackers like Urlacher, Kuechly, Mosley, and Willis. To myself and perhaps many others, these are in my humble opinion, quintessential alpha prospects at the position. When you look at these four players, most of them walked into a bad situation save for CJ Mosley in terms of defensive performance. When I say they walked into bad situations, the defenses in the previous year were ranked fairly low in terms of points given up and yards given up. They might have had a 'successful once upon a time' coach, they may have had low attendance, there are so many variables but ultimately, the one that mattered the most was the production and it just simply was not there in 3 of the 4 cases. Below are the numbers I have pulled from Pro-Football Reference in terms of Defensive rankings, it will take the year prior to the player drafting in comparison to the five years averaged following the player drafted. The first number is the team's overall ranking in terms of points given up and the following number will by the ranking of the team in terms of yards given up, measure against all 32 NFL teams respectively.
Kuechly / Carolina / 2012 / 9th Overall
2012 - 18 / 10
2013 - 2 / 2
2014 - 21 / 10
2015 - 6 / 6
2016 - 26 / 21
Before - 27 / 28
Avg After - 15 / 10
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Willis / 49ers / 2007 / 11th Overall
2007 - 20 / 25
2008 - 23 / 13
2009 - 4 / 15
2010 - 16 / 13
2011 - 2 / 4
Before - 32 / 26
Avg After - 13 / 14
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Urlacher / Bears / 2000 / 9th Overall
2000 - 20/16
2001 - 1/15
2002 - 25/25
2003 - 22/14
2004 - 13/21
Before - 20/29
Avg After - 16/18
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Mosley / Ravens / 2014 / 17th Overall
2014 - 6 / 8
2015 - 24 / 8
2016 - 9 / 7
2017 - 6 / 12
2018 - 2 / 1
Before - 12/12
Avg after- 9/7
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From the four cases listed above, one of the ingredients in the defensive improvement of 4 organizations over five years on defense was the presence of the aforementioned middle backers. How much of this transition from under-performing to marked improvement can be attributed exclusively to the play of the single athlete is easily debatable, yielding no absolutes in answers. The existence of the player in a marked improvement situation demonstrates however the potential for a defensive change in terms of team culture.
I'm not suggesting drafting D. White is going to fix everything or even that we should draft him (Perhaps being open to the idea of though). In my own mocks, he's not even my alternate, I like Allen and Oliver personally. I am however bringing to question our preconceived perception of the value of the position. A 3 down middle linebacker, calling your plays, every play and communicating to both sides of the defense pre-snap while being ultra-productive. Last season, many on this board were warming up to the idea of drafting a guard in the top 10, some even suggesting to trade up to get him. (Not going to lie/throw stones, I was among the audience that was hoping to get Nelson)
So we ask the question, is pick 5 too high for a middle linebacker? Is the position under-valued by today's standards?