I would say because running backs - unless they a destroyed by injuries or ruined by drugs - aren't typically 1-year wonders. The whole team was playing lousy before Martin got injured. There's a reason the coaching staff got canned. And probably nothing was worse on the team than the OL. And while I've seen a lot of comments about it being lousy for everyone, it was constantly changing for Martin - Carimi, the corpse of Carl Nicks, and Zuttah were at LG for Martin, and when Zuttah played LG, Larsen played C. He also had the 3 JF games and Glennon's rookie debut.
Let's say we did trade Martin for a first rounder. I think people here think that we'd simply be trading a very good starter at a non-value position for a very good starter at a value position? But how realistic is that? My guess is the expected value of trading Martin is = Very Good Starter x .5. In other words, we probably have a 50% chance of getting a very good starter at a position deemed more important than RB. Everybody loves the idea of trading Martin for Aldon Smith. Nobody seems to consider that we could end up with Shea McClellin.
Correct but the problem here is that Martin's value add is so low that the risk reward works. I'd not trade VJax for example. Martin is a guy who is a workhorse but really if you have a back, say we RBBC, that gets 175 carries per season the difference between a "great" 4.8 YPC and one schlep getting 4.2 YPC is 6.5 yards per game. Backs are not that great at the margins.
I get the relative value, though I think the yard per carry split is a bit simplistic - it's not only how many, it's when, where, and against whom. Martin at his best was well over replacement value. Last year - and I do think he's somewhat promising - Rainey was below replacement value (not enough carries for Mike James). Martin 2012 also caught the ball extremely well, and blocked extremely well. Plus, he's not expensive. If we want to accumulate picks, I'd rather dump our backups for later round picks and work them up to packages. Again, I'm not 100% opposed, but it better be an awfully good deal.
Thing is Martin isn't the back people think he is. They think of him as a yardage churning possession back but in reality he's a hit and miss runner. The big difference between this year and last is that he didn't have a couple of games where he popped those huge runs that inflated his average. I appreciate his work in the passing game - it is functionally all I appreciate about him honestly - our other backs caught about as many passes in the games they played as he did. It isn't like the other backs are stiffs on that front. Put another way, I think I can relatively easily replace the carries and catches he brings to the team, at the same or even lower cost ( and I appreciate how low his cost is) AND get a chance at another starting player I look at it as getting something for basically nothing.
Thing is Martin isn't the back people think he is. They think of him as a yardage churning possession back but in reality he's a hit and miss runner. The big difference between this year and last is that he didn't have a couple of games where he popped those huge runs that inflated his average. I appreciate his work in the passing game - it is functionally all I appreciate about him honestly - our other backs caught about as many passes in the games they played as he did. It isn't like the other backs are stiffs on that front. Put another way, I think I can relatively easily replace the carries and catches he brings to the team, at the same or even lower cost ( and I appreciate how low his cost is) AND get a chance at another starting player I look at it as getting something for basically nothing.
I think a lot of people are thinking that James and Rainey could easily fill the void of Martin. Not so sure.....James looked good but has an extremely small sample size, with the majority of his stats coming from the Seattle game.Rainey showed some promise but, again, seemed to get the majority of his yards in a few games vice a nice spread over all of them. So, I fail to see how we can use them to justify letting Martin go. Martin has demonstrated, that he is capable of 2000 yds from scrimmage over the course of year. That value is not easily duplicated like everyone seems to think it is. So, while Red Boarders seem to think he is easily jettisoned with little or no impact to the team, something tells me that the new coaching staff would beg to differ. Think Lovie wouldve been down with letting go of Forte? Think Tedford doesn't rely on backs like Martin in his offense? You think Licht, who for years with Arizona has attempted to find a back like Martin with zero success, would be willing to let him go for a second rounder?
You need to look again at the RB receptions - Rainey, James, and Leonard aren't in the same ball-park as receivers. Obviously the sample size for those guys is low, but the best one - Leonard - was more than 3 yards per catch shy of where Martin was in 2012. It's based on rhetoric of course, but I think Martin holds more value in a offense like Tedford's than he for Schiano. Here's the thing about Martin that doesn't necessarily show up in the numbers - when he's on the field on 3rd and 5, he can be there to run a draw, block, or catch a pass. When Leonard's on the field, we know he's either blocking or catching the ball.
Here's the thing about Martin that doesn't necessarily show up in the numbers - when he's on the field on 3rd and 5, he can be there to run a draw, block, or catch a pass. When Leonard's on the field, we know he's either blocking or catching the ball.
That's the problem with a lot of football discussions, they mostly focus on number as if there are no intangibles . . . a "Martin" becomes equivalent to a "Leonard" based on some stat like YPC even though there is much more to it than that.
You need to look again at the RB receptions - Rainey, James, and Leonard aren't in the same ball-park as receivers. Obviously the sample size for those guys is low, but the best one - Leonard - was more than 3 yards per catch shy of where Martin was in 2012. It's based on rhetoric of course, but I think Martin holds more value in a offense like Tedford's than he for Schiano. Here's the thing about Martin that doesn't necessarily show up in the numbers - when he's on the field on 3rd and 5, he can be there to run a draw, block, or catch a pass. When Leonard's on the field, we know he's either blocking or catching the ball.
...and of course Martin wasn't anywhere near 2012 either so he hasn't shown that 2012 is any more or less who he is than 2013 is. I think Martin actually carries less value because we don't need a guy to go out and drop 300 some odd carries. Obviously he didn't even have the value of that in 2013 but Ina world where you are trying to just get guys on the field in a rotation you can get by wi lower talent/cost players. You want versatility, I just don't think Martin has a special level of versatility that makes him indispensable. This isn't a Marshall Fault or even Jamaal Charles level of special.
Marshall Faulk? That's setting the bar pretty high, but I wouldn't actually be surprised (I don't know) if their rookie years weren't about the same? Who knows? The problem is this year and using that as part of the analysis, its not like Martin forgot how to play this year . . the team SUCKED and he played during the early part of the season.
Let's say we did trade Martin for a first rounder. I think people here think that we'd simply be trading a very good starter at a non-value position for a very good starter at a value position? But how realistic is that? My guess is the expected value of trading Martin is = Very Good Starter x .5. In other words, we probably have a 50% chance of getting a very good starter at a position deemed more important than RB. Everybody loves the idea of trading Martin for Aldon Smith. Nobody seems to consider that we could end up with Shea McClellin.
+1.I love how everyone assumes the 1st round pick we're going to take is guaranteed to be a great player. The draft is a crapshoot and I highly doubt whoever we would end up drafting in the 1st round would be better than Martin.
There is no need to blow this whole thing up. Some of our best players were hurt last year and those that weren't were poorly coached. By my eyes here is what we need--A legit edge rusher- hopefully we can get a good one in FA. -A #3 reciever- lots to choose from in this draft.-A #3 corner. Hopefully this guy or the new wr can do returns.-Fix the oline- Sign Mack. Draft Matthews or Robinson. Rookie starts at LT, Penn move to LG, Mack starts at C, Zuttah to RG, and Dot stays at RT.-General depth. I think that is really all we need.
that sounds like a lot... I don't know how I feel about Penn moving to Guard. If we are going to be running a lot of screens, I'm not sure if he has the best mobility...
Marshall Faulk? That's setting the bar pretty high, but I wouldn't actually be surprised (I don't know) if their rookie years weren't about the same? Who knows? The problem is this year and using that as part of the analysis, its not like Martin forgot how to play this year . . the team SUCKED and he played during the early part of the season.
No but running backs who are hit and miss will have high variances. As good as AP is he's had two monsterous seasons, 1760 yards and then his 2097 last year. Short of those years his other years have been in the 1000 to 1300 range which is good but not OMFG levels of good.
You guys would make horrific GMs.
is doug martin a special RB? what makes him better than other RBs?what makes him elite?
Marshall Faulk? That's setting the bar pretty high, but I wouldn't actually be surprised (I don't know) if their rookie years weren't about the same? Who knows? The problem is this year and using that as part of the analysis, its not like Martin forgot how to play this year . . the team SUCKED and he played during the early part of the season.
No but running backs who are hit and miss will have high variances. As good as AP is he's had two monsterous seasons, 1760 yards and then his 2097 last year. Short of those years his other years have been in the 1000 to 1300 range which is good but not OMFG levels of good.
Dude will be a HOFer. Just out of curiosity, who are the elite RBs in the league right now in your opinion?