Six Reasons for the NFL’s Early Offensive Explosion
By ALBERT BREER October 04, 2018
When Jared Goff’s plant foot hit grass at the bottom of his drop with 1:30 left in the first half last Thursday, there were eight Viking defenders within 10 yards of the line of scrimmage. When he let the ball go, there was only one within 20 yards of new Ram Brandin Cooks, sprinting to the post. And the rest, really, was academic.
We’ve seen this scene unfold everywhere in the NFL this fall.
First down. Receiver coming uninterrupted off the line, and unbothered by the threat of contact. Defense geared to respect the run. Offense raring to take a shot. Touchdown.
“They are playing aggressively on early downs,” said one rival quarterbacks coach. “And that’s a trend sweeping the league.”
It’s sweeping the league, mainly because it’s working—and just as the league wants it to. With an influx of gunslinging young quarterbacks, rules changes geared towards juicing offenses, unintended consequences of other rules changes and coaches more open-minded than ever before, passing numbers and scoring have exploded. It’s like money play after money play, straight out of Madden 98.
Explaining it is a little more complicated than just hitting buttons. But the statistics are crystal clear:
• There have been 228 touchdown passes through four weeks, breaking the previous high-water mark of 205 (2013).
• The league’s collective completion percentage (65.4) and passer rating (94.5) are also four-week records, topping marks set in 2014 (64.3, 91.5).
• Passing yards through four weeks (32,215) also ran at an all-time high, edging the mark set in 2016 (31,616).
• Eleven quarterbacks have more than 1,200 yards through four weeks. The previous four-week high there was seven, in 2011.
• Seven quarterbacks have double-digit touchdown passes, and 10 have a triple-digit passer rating. Both are four-week high water marks.
• There have also been more touchdowns (344) and points (3030) through four weeks than ever before.
So what gives? We’re going to get to your mail and to players to watch for the weekend, both in college and the pros, in a minute, but we’re leading off this week’s Game Plan by working to tell you why the NFL’s longstanding desire for Big 12-style scoring and pyrotechnics came together in a wild September (and spilled over in Patrick Mahomes’ crazy October 1).
And after hitting up a bunch of coaches, on both sides of the ball, as well as scouts, the one-line conclusion I came to is that there is no one thing you can assign all of this to. Instead, it’s a number of changes, some made to push this offensive shift, and some helping the NFL get there organically. So let’s dive into the reasons, in no specific order:
1. Rules changes: This is the most obvious, and goes back a decade to when the illegal contact rules were emphasized, handcuffing defensive backs. Now, with the helmet rule and body-weight rule in the spotlight, teams see apparent examples on film of safeties pulling up on potential kill shots, and linebackers lowering their target area. So naturally, that goes into coaching. “The middle of the field is a danger-free zone,” one pro scouting director texted me. “You used to face certain teams, like Seattle, with certain players, and unless you wanted to lose guys, you stayed away. You don’t have to be as concerned about that, and even if you get hit, it’ll probably be a penalty.” Those flags extend drives and, at times, generate scoring chances and passing yards that weren’t there before.
2. College offenses: I’d refer back to the June 25 and July 23 editions of The MMQB, with Oklahoma’s Lincoln Riley and Chicago’s Matt Nagy, to fully explain this one. In short, NFL coaches are far more open-minded than they used to be to implementing college-rooted concepts, which is most obvious in places like Philadelphia, New England, Kansas City and, yes, Chicago. That’s created a schematic cat-and-mouse game, with defenses scrambling, and coverage busts like the ones we saw on the part of the Bucs against Nagy’s Bears last week becoming more and more common. NFL football is no longer played in a phone booth.
3. Analytics: Most teams these days are looking intently at data in how they run their operation. And, as one NFC assistant coach said, “a lot of teams are buying into the analytics [on] how it is important to throw the ball more on early downs. [There are better] overall success rates on passing plays on first down, compared to running on first down.” Want proof? Through three weeks, Bucs QB Ryan Fitzpatrick was throwing more on first down than any other down (with former Oklahoma State OC Todd Monken calling the plays), completing 31 of 44 throws on those plays for 627 yards five touchdowns, a pick and a 141.3 rating. We used a first-down play from Goff to kick the column off, and he’s been pretty good on those too—going 46 of 56 for 668 yards, six touchdowns, no picks and a 152.1 rating. Teams are also more aggressive on fourth down, which is a factor in extending drives.
4. Offseason emphasis: This relates to rules changes, but of a different nature. Teams can’t hit in the spring, and summer contact and practice time have been cut way down under the 2011 CBA. That leaves coaches and players hard-pressed to get real run-game work done, and over time it’s caused reallocation of some of that time to even more work on the passing game. “Sh--, all we get are non-padded practices,” said one AFC offensive coordinator. “So you are almost forced to throw the ball more because that’s what you’re getting good at.”
5. QB talent: We’ve had 11 first-round quarterbacks in the last three draft cycles, and three look like home runs (Goff, Mahomes, Carson Wentz), while all five of the 2018 rookies have flashed big-time potential. Of the 11, nine are now their teams’ starters, and many have been paired with creative coaches (most notably Goff, Mahomes and Wentz) who are tailoring the offenses to their skill sets. That means opposing defensive coaches not only have to build a book on these guys, but they also have to learn to defend new concepts put in to unlock their talent. Again, it’s a cat-and-mouse game.
6. Talent elsewhere: I thought this comment, from an NFC offensive coordinator, was interesting: “Leaguewide, there’s more speed on the field. Teams are throwing it more often, and creating more space for these speed guys to run.” Part of that comes from the college concepts meant to stretch the field vertically and horizontally. Part of it comes from the rules that have opened areas that were previously no-fly zones. Part of it is that smaller players can’t be knocked into oblivion anymore. And so the NFL has never been a friendlier place for the Tyreek Hills and Jakeem Grants of the world.
So then the question becomes simple: Will it continue?
The weather will get colder. Defenses will learn to better defend the young quarterbacks and newfangled schemes. And that cat-and-mouse will play on. Which is to say there’s plenty of unknown ahead.
But that’s the fun part. The series of offensive haymakers we’ve gotten to this point have been a blast to watch. And it sure will be interesting to keep an eye out for the counterpunch, whenever that comes.
https://www.si.com/nfl/2018/10/04/nfl-offense-passing-records-through-four-weeks
