The defense played well in weeks 12-17; however, we don't know if this will carry over into 2020 (like Dungy) or regress to the norm (like Mike Smith). I am concerned that 3 of the 6 EOY games involved substandard QBs, possibly artificially inflating hope for the 2020 defense.
I know that statistics don't tell the entire story, but here's what some data told me:
* Bucs defense was 2nd at fumbles recovered, 23rd at interceptions, and had the worst starting field position... welcome TB12.
* C. Nassib (56%) played more snaps than JPP (52%) with similar productivity. I think many fans are underestimating the value of a third quality Edge player to maintain the rotation and account for injuries. Nelson is a huge unknown.
* The Bucs were top 1/3 in sacks and pressure, but in the bottom 1/3 in QB hurries... this suggests to me that we'd greatly benefit from a DT who can penetrate on passing plays.
* We urgently need to improve our coverage skills at safety. Davis and Dean were good at CB, but jury is still out on SMB. In the following list, league average passer rating appears to be ~90 in 2019:
Player Completion % Pass Rating Allowed
R. Smith 80% 152.1
M. Edwards 66% 137.2
K. Minter 83% 121.6
A. Adams 68% 117.9 (our only safety who could tackle, though)
MJ Stewart 74% 111.8 (give him another shot as safety depth, not CB)
J. Whitehead 57% 92.7
D. White 75% 89.0 (appears to be improving)
SMB 65% 86.6 (appears to be improving)
C. Davis 50% 80.0
L. David 63% 73.0 (why isn't he in the Pro Bowl)
J. Dean 50% 72.4 (please stay healthy and avoid sophomore slump)
VH3 (2 teams) 69% 116.1 (thought some may be curious)
* We had 6 of the worst 108 players at missed tackle % (minimum of 20 tackles):
JPP 22.9% (Is he overrated in his run support?)
SMB 18.5% (If he doesn't improve, he should be demoted to CB4 in 2021)
M. Edwards 15.1% (Dumpster fire in rookie season for tackling/coverage)
K. Minter 15.0% (I thought he was quality depth, but his tackling/coverage dispute this)
C. Davis 14.3% (Fix this and penalties and he's a CB1)
J. Whitehead 13.8% (He's our best safety, but is a marginal starter)
Like everyone, I want us to upgrade OL, RB, and WR3; nevertheless, our defense has significant needs and shouldn't be ignored. Based on data, it looks like our defensive priorities should be a safety (really 2), Edge, pass rushing DT, CB4, and iLB3 for the 2020 season though the draft/FA. Basically, we stink at safety and have no quality depth elsewhere. A trade down seems to make more sense to me every day.
The preceding message has been approved by T. Bowles ;-)
