As of right now, here is what our base Offense and base Defense (Nickel) looks like:
OFFENSE
QB - Winston
RB - Barber
WR - Evans, Perriman
TE - Howard
Slot/TE2 - Godwin/Brate
LT - Smith
LG - Marpet
OC - Jensen
RG - ?
RT - Dotson
DEFENSE (Going to work off Big Nickel 2-4-5 which was the Jets primary in 2018)
DL - Vea, McCoy
EDGE - Barrett, Nassib
ILB - David, ?
CB - VH3, Davis
S - Evans, Whitehead, Bucannon
So two things stick out quickly:
* THIS ASSUMES JAMEIS PLAYS WELL ENOUGH THIS YEAR TO EARN A CONTRACT EXTENSION (IF HE DOESN'T EVERYTHING IS SHAKEN UP).
1) Question marks at iOL and ILB
At iOL we have no actual player at the RG position. However, it likely gets worse because Jensen is almost surely not on this team in 2020. So by 2020, we're going to have to replace 2 starters at iOL and one of them will HAVE to come from this draft.
We have Lavonte, but overall we are incredibly thin at off-ball linebacker with departures and injuries (Beck's being at least career-threatening if not ending). Minter is just a stop-gap, Bucannon is a box Safety/LB hybrid (who will either be ILB or 3rd Safety), and the rest of the roster are just jags (or worse).
This team needs an infusion of talent at the LB position, not just to fill out the scrimmage snap roles...but we desperately need an infusion of talent into our Special Teams.
2) What isn't so clear is fits, roles, and 2020 and beyond:
a) If/when we run a 3-3-5 Nickel front (we may), then JPP has a 7 tech Edge role that will be optimized for his skill-set. However, if not, he is a 14.9 million cap hit and getting long-in-the-tooth (and his 2018 wasn't as good as advertised).
If we are playing 2-4 front as base Nickel, then that 14.9 mil is for an aging player who isn't being optimized. We need a about 13 million more in cap space for 2019...it wouldn't surprise me at all if this is where we find it.
b) Intersecting with (a) above, Neither Nassib nor Barrett are legitimate NFL coverage players at the edge position. Barrett is a good pass rusher and rush player, but isn't a tested or proficient coverage player (in his 37 snaps, he was below par last year). Nassib does a solid job rushing the passer, but isn't a consistent finisher. He plays the run well and his 13 snaps in coverage in 2018 fared well (but that can't be relied upon because there isn't remotely enough data.
As such, due to age and lack of a legitimate, dominant Edge player who can play Curl/Flat and cover RBs (along with rushing the passer and playing the run), this team severely needs an infusion of talent at that position.
c) McCoy appears poised to see 2019 in a Bucs uniform. The likelihood of a 2020 is probably less than 50/50, and if we have are investing big money at the QB position (which would be great), the odds that he will be on the team in 2020 is extremely remote.
Consequently, this team needs an infusion of DL talent, for this year possibly (for rotation bare minimum but possibly for base defense) and surely for the years to follow.
d) Vernon Hargreaves has been an ineffective, unreliable CB in 3 years. In light of his 3 year dataset, its very likely that he won't be on this team in 2020. Furthermore, there is no guarantee he will remain healthy or be effective enough as a reliable CB in 2019. Our other starter is a rookie who had an up and down year, but who should fair much better in the more simplified, Man-heavy coverage scheme that Bowles will deploy. I have faith that will see a fair amount of improvement from Davis.
Stewart (who never had a chance of being an NFL Nickel CB) is being moved to Safety and Ryan Smith is just a depth player who can be counted on in a pinch to play solid (primarily in run support...very average coverage player).
Our Safeties have been in-and-out of the lineup and inconsistent or worse.
The defensive backfield needs an infusion of talent not just for this year, but for 2020 as well, and not just for scrimmage snaps, but Special Teams as well.
e) Dotson almost surely won't be on this team next year. Further, injuries had caught up with him last year and he was showing his age (after a really great 2017). It also didn't help that he had one of the worst RG in the league next to him. I have faith that Dot can perform at RT in 2019 w/ a good RG to his left, but his career is careening toward a sudden stop. If we don't address RT in this draft, we'll either have to pay a stop-gap next year (if we have the cap space) or draft a replacement in 2020.
++++++++++++++++++
Let us start back to front with this upcoming draft. Everyone had heard me say it MANY times already, but let me say it again:
* ROUNDS 5-7 HAVE TO BE DEVOTED EXCLUSIVELY TO LB AND DBS. These are try-hards with high IQs, captains in NCAA, mental resilience, hyper-physical kinds of guys who will make up your Special Teams talent core and establish an attitude on the same. These guys generally won't be stars if they play scrimmage snaps, but they won't hurt you...and if you draft enough of them, you'll catch a diamond (see King, Desmond and plenty of other cases). THESE ARE NOT THE ROUNDS TO DRAFT PROJECT OL AND RUN-STUFFING NT DEPTH.
* Round 4 is sort of a catch-all round. Here you're looking at DBs who didn't show out well in the combine (but may be fantastic football players), small or tweener LBers, all-purpose RBs who are undersized or weren't combine killers, and small school projects. This player should help your football team immediately, more often than not.
For us, this pick needs to be either an all-purpose RB, CB, S, or LB.
* Round 3...there are almost always tons of good round 2 players that fall to round 3 because of one stupid reason or another (a lot of depth at the position in the draft, some sort of non-red flag that red-flagged them, some sort of combine situation, or just plain slipping through the cracks.
This depends on the earlier rounds, but due to the talent at DL this year, there is a very HIGH chance that we see some significant DL talent available in round 3 this year. Hill or Saunders could be available.
This is also the round of the draft where ILB Pratt or possibly one of CBs Johnson, Sin, Jackson might be available to us. Coming away with one of those 6 players would be big for this roster.
* Round 2...one of those question marks above needs to be addressed here. This player has to be an immediate impact starter. Over Licht's 4 year reign, we've seen 4 picks in the 2nd round (Spence, Aguayo, Jones, Stewart) not work out. We cannot have another miss in this round. Its possible we could be looking at 2 selections here. This is where solid OL can be found (most often iOL and RT), DL/Edge who drop because of various non-football or measurables issues, and off-ball LBs (due to value primarily). Its possible that both of our ? above can be addressed in this round.
* Round 1...and this guy needs to be a franchise cornerstone, play immediately, and play well. Edge, DL, OL, CB or that freakishly rare and simultaneously polished prospect at a lower value position (James, Derwin and Howard, OJ and Kuechly, Luke and Barkley, Saquon). Those first 4 are all desperate needs and there are big-time prospects at all of those positions. This pick is borderline can't miss even on a trade-down (unless we do something catastrophically stupid).
