Tanking fans, you be the judge. How's this tanking thing working out for teams? Here's the history of the modern NFL and the QBs who have won Superbowls in the 21st century.
Single digit QB picks (Picks 1-9) drafted in the 21st century (2000-2022) 34.
Superbowl winners:
Single digit picks = 1 Eli Manning (1st pick)
1st Round picks, double digits = 5 Mahomes (10), Rodgers (24), Brees (32), Flacco (18), Roethlisberger (11).
Later Round picks = 3 Brady (6th), Wilson (3rd), Foles (3rd)
Free agent signee= 5 Brady, Payton Manning, Johnson, Dilfer, Warner
Trade = 1 Stafford.
So in the last 23 Superbowls, two have been won by a single digit draft pick who played for the team that drafted him. Eli Manning (1st) was the only one.
The Chiefs went 2-14 seven years before their Superbowl and drafted a tackle 1st overall. Of course Mahomes was drafted 10th overall in the 1st Round.
The Rams went 4-12 five years before and drafted Jared Goff 1st overall who they had to get rid of in order to win their Superbowl. They traded for their Superbowl winning QB Matt Stafford.
The Bucs signed Brady as a free agent. They had to get rid of Winston, their first overall pick. They decided to do that before Brady was a twinkle in their eye.
The Patriots drafted Tom Brady in the 6th Round and won multiple Superbowls.
The Eagles signed Sam Bradford, former #1 overall pick, but traded him because he sucked and they selected Carson Wentz 2nd overall, who was injured and Nick Foles led them to the Superbowl and won Superbowl MVP. Foles was a 3rd round pick. Of course Wentz went on to achieve immortality... not so much.
The Broncos signed Payton Manning as a free agent. They drafted Osweiler in the 2nd round, and that didn't work out.
The Seahawks drafted Russell Wilson in the 3rd Round.
The Ravens drafted Joe Flacco 18th overall in the 1st Round.
The Giants traded up with the Chargers for Eli Manning who was drafted 1st overall and won two Superbowls. The Giants won 4 games to earn the 3rd pick.
The Packers won with Aaron Rodgers, who was drafted 24th overall in the 1st.
The Saints won with Drew Brees, drafted 32nd overall in the 1st.
The Steelers won with Ben Roethlisberger, 11th overall pick of the draft.
The Buccaneers won with Brad Johnson, a free agent who was originally drafted in the 9th round.
The Ravens won in 2001 with Trent Dilfer, a free agent signee.
The 2000 Superbowl winning St. Louis Rams won with Kurt Warner, an undrafted player.
Matt Stafford is a #1 overall pick. For the purposes of this argument, I have no idea why there would be a separate "trade" category.
The same argument for Peyton Manning. He was a #1 overall pick that won two Superbowls, one with the team who drafted him and one with another team. He's still a first overall selection.
Ask the Jets if they rather have Zach Wilson or Trevor Lawerence. They won a meaningless game vs the Rams and that ended up costing them a promising young QB.
Granted they have A-Rod now but its still wasted draft resources.
Because Stafford did not win a Superbowl for the team who drafted him. The point is that if you draft a QB picks 1-9, will they end up taking you to a Superbowl? Well, that's been done 34 times this century and one has actually won a Superbowl for their drafting team. As for the Bucs we signed a free agent both times we won the Superbowl. So why should we tank for a top QB or give up multiple draft picks to move up to the top two or three picks if winning a Superbowl is our objective?Matt Stafford is a #1 overall pick. For the purposes of this argument, I have no idea why there would be a separate "trade" category.
The same argument for Peyton Manning. He was a #1 overall pick that won two Superbowls, one with the team who drafted him and one with another team. He's still a first overall selection.
Well, that's been done 34 times this century and one has actually won a Superbowl for their drafting team.
You're even wrong about that. Peyton Manning was drafted 1st overall and won a Superbowl with the team who drafted him.
The reason the Detroit Lions didn't go to or win a Superbowl wasn't because of Matt Stafford. The distinction you are attempting to make simply isn't there.
You are right. I missed Payton Manning 2007 SB with the Colts. So that's two - both Mannings.
If anything this supports the argument to draft a QB in the first round.
1 - Take Tom Brady out of it, you are talking about the Babe Ruth of the NFL and once in a lifetime event. Is there a chance late round picks work out? For sure. Scouting has improved over the last 20 years and just see it less and less likely this happened again
2 – the argument as I see it is that even if a QB was a free agent, was still talented enough to win a superbowl so guys like Manning, Brady (Bucs), and Stafford should be included.
2022 – Patrick Mahomes – first round pick
2021 – Matt Stafford – first round pick
2020 – Brady
2019 – Mahomes – first round pick
2018 – Brady
2017 – Nick Foles (exception 1)
2016 – Brady
2015 – Manning – first round pick
2014 – Brady
2013 – Russell Wilson (exception 2)
So in the last 10 years, you have seen 2 exceptions not including Babe Ruth and first round picks
2012 – Joe Flacco – first round pick
2011 – Eli Manning – first round pick
2010 – Aaron Rodgers -first round pick
2009 – Drew Brees – (exception 3)
2008 – Big Ben – first round pick
2007 – Eli – first round pick
2006 – Manning – first round pick
2005 – Big Ben – first round pick
2004 – Brady
2003 – Brady
2002 – Brad Johnson (exception 4)
2001 - Brady
2000- Dilfer – first round pick
1999 – Warner ( exception 5)
1998 – Elway – first round pick
So let’s see in 25 years – the count is first round pick 13, Brady – 7, and exception 5
I’d say that is pretty good odds to say a first round pick while may falter most of the time (see Freeman, Winston) gives you a better chance. Can’t include Babe Ruth, GOAT in the equation if you want to be reasonable about draft pick and the analysis
Additionally look at the top 10 QBs in the league today – you could argue Hurts as the only non first round pick with an outside shot of Prescott. So 80% were first round picks
In terms of a top pick versus say top 25 pick, that’s really all depends on perceived needs at the time. Right now looks like only 2 worthwhile QBs in next years draft hence, a top 5 pick is likely required to land one of them.
and yes more likely than not they fail, but that can be said about every draft pick and position.
Yes the first round, but not necessarily a top five pick when teams clamor to move up to the top five. yes the Lions are the Lions and that's why Stafford had no chance, but the question is how important is it to draft a QB at the top of the draft next year? Should we tank for a top pick or spend multiple high picks to move up? History would seem to indicate that we don't need to do either of those. There are many paths to success. Of course winning a Superbowl is really hard to do. But there's not just one formula for success, and you don't need to get that top five pick to have a chance to build a Superbowl winning team. That's not the way it's done most of the time. It's done a lot of different ways.
So let’s see in 25 years – the count is first round pick 13, Brady – 7, and exception 5
Agreed.
One factor in this argument that really isn't being discussed is scouting. If teams could redraft, damn near all of the QB's we are talking about would have been drafted earlier - with Brady and Mahomes being obvious examples. Scouting QB's is the most difficult of all positions.
I think the point the OP is attempting (poorly) to make is, you don't have to have the #1 overall pick to get a good QB. While that is true, it's definitely preferable to have all of the options instead less options. Detrimental's example of Trevor Lawrence vs. Zach Wilson is case-and-point. The Jest would have loved to have the option to take Lawrence - but they didn't. And it changed the course of their franchise forever.
It has to do with the team as well though and not just what the draft pick does with another team. If a team is bad enough to get a high first round pick, will it ever be good enough to allow that high draft pick QB to ever take them to a Super Bowl?
I'm too lazy to do the research but I wonder where this exercise goes if you include the teams that lost the SB as well. Does it support 1st round picks being the answer or not. Just listing the winners when Brady won a hugely disproportionate amount of them this century skews numbers to the abnormal. On the flip side going back to list SB winners pre-Brady and it is too different of a different game where it doesn't compare properly anymore.
Thanks for putting this together. It is interesting to see.
Again, I'm not arguing that high picks turn out to be good. Many do. But are they going to win a Superbowl, particularly if you have to trade good players from your team to tank to a top pick or if you have to wreck the rest of your draft for two years to move up?
Additionally look at the top 10 QBs in the league today – you could argue Hurts as the only non first round pick with an outside shot of Prescott. So 80% were first round picks
This argument has come up a lot but the bottom line is if your team doesn't have a top fifteen pick year in and year out your best bet is to build a strong team and sign/trade for a QB.
There are late first round QBs that have helped teams be competitive (eg Rodgers) but I would say that those QB's are also outliers just as much as Wilson and Brady in the later rounds.
Usually the teams that draft a QB late in the first or later also have built strong teams and take their shot so that is a factor. I think the new rookie contracts for first rounders makes it more attractive for teams to take their shot at first round QBs beyond the top 15 now. A cheap rookie contract creates a huge window of opportunity to compete with a strong roster.
Matt Stafford is a #1 overall pick. For the purposes of this argument, I have no idea why there would be a separate "trade" category.
The same argument for Peyton Manning. He was a #1 overall pick that won two Superbowls, one with the team who drafted him and one with another team. He's still a first overall selection.
Correct
Tanking isn't a real pre-season NFL strategy anyway. An NFL team that missed the playoffs doesn't likely look at the season ahead and say before the season starts . . "we could get Peyton Manning so lets tank." More likely its an end of a lost season decision, if anything.
And if you use the Peyton manning example the draft was actually Manning and Leaf and the season before cost the HC (and GM, I think) their job. Not sure BUT way to many other variables and QB performance is too uncertain anyway** to tank in the sense that fans often describe it i.e., some say we should just tank this season. Think Bowles agrees with that?
**Winston was routinely described and the "most NFL-ready QB in recent draft history." lol He was actually THE OPPOSITE of that
You are right. I missed Payton Manning 2007 SB with the Colts. So that's two - both Mannings.
Actually Peyton Manning was drafted in 1998, so he doesn't fit the criteria.
