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Super Bowl Winning QBs in the 21st Century

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Avatar Of Biggs3535
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Posted by: @seekpar

Posted by: @catherder

You are right.  I missed Payton Manning 2007 SB with the Colts.  So that's two - both Mannings.  

Actually Peyton Manning was drafted in 1998, so he doesn't fit the criteria.

 

The OP has listed every QB that’s won a SB in the 21st century. Obviously, that’s going to include a few QB’s drafted prior to 2000, like PManning, Dilfer, BJohnson, and the undrafted Kurt Warner. 

But you’re right that he also mentioned QB’s drafted since 2000. It’s a poorly thought-out thread.

 

 
Posted : May. 13, 2023 7:59 pm
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Posted by: @biggs3535

Posted by: @seekpar

Posted by: @catherder

You are right.  I missed Payton Manning 2007 SB with the Colts.  So that's two - both Mannings.  

Actually Peyton Manning was drafted in 1998, so he doesn't fit the criteria.

 

The OP has listed every QB that’s won a SB in the 21st century. Obviously, that’s going to include a few QB’s drafted prior to 2000, like PManning, Dilfer, BJohnson, and the undrafted Kurt Warner. 

But you’re right that he also mentioned QB’s drafted since 2000. It’s a poorly thought-out thread.

 

Ouch.  I guess I need to break out the bullet points.

  • There has been sentiment that the Bucs need to get a high draft pick next year to get one of the top QBs.  It would be nice to have a high draft pick, but is it critical to the chances for success?  I think fans are perhaps putting too much emphasis on that.  
  • Fact one:  2 single digit draft pick QBs (picks 1-9) have won Superbowls for their drafting team since 2000, while 8 QBs picked 10th or later have won Superbowls since 2000.  That doesn't mean the QBs picked at the top were always bad, but the formula for teams winning Superbowls didn't need to include getting a top draft pick and taking a QB. 
  • Fact two:     34 QBs have been drafted in the single digits since 2000.  One has won a Superbowl for the team that drafted him.  That's critical, because if the Bucs want to draft a QB, we aren't interested in him winning a Superbowl for another team!  Drafting a QB at the top of the draft hasn't translated into Superbowl wins.  
  • Fact three:  The Bucs have won two Superbowls with QBs who were brought in as free agents.  Since 2000 they have spent two high draft picks on QBs and neither brought us a winning team. 
  • So as you can see, while everyone including Bucs fans will be salivating for the next ten months or so over these young stud QB prospects, history shows its not that critical.  There is more than one way to skin a cat.  

 

This post was modified 2 years ago 2 times by Trask Force
 
Posted : May. 13, 2023 9:02 pm
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All in all I think it's an interesting discussion. There are few sure things in the draft. Moreso than not, draft picks are hit and miss. That's why it's important to have good scouting and superior player development.

 
Posted : May. 14, 2023 9:20 am
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I don’t see that anyone else pointed this out, but Eli was not drafted by the Giants.

 
Posted : May. 14, 2023 7:25 pm
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Posted by: @seapa

I don’t see that anyone else pointed this out, but Eli was not drafted by the Giants.

No, but he was immediately traded to the Giants during the draft, so he counts as being drafted by the Giants IMO.  

 

 
Posted : May. 14, 2023 8:55 pm
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Data should be from 1995. League went through a significant change from 1993-1995 with rolling out free agency, salary cap and two expansion teams. 1995 was the first year of the current NFL as we know it. 

 

The problem is how QBs are scouted, not having the #1 overall pick. You're seeing it with Caleb Williams right now. He's not playing in situations that emulate what he will see in the NFL. Clean pockets, guys running wide ass open, faster than every front 7 player. This is the same system that got Baker and Murray Heismans and drafted #1 overall and the media is going in ass over tea kettle again. 

 
Posted : May. 15, 2023 8:28 am
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Posted by: @seapa

I don’t see that anyone else pointed this out, but Eli was not drafted by the Giants.

Good point.  Clearly Eli is in the "Trade" category of this poorly-thought-out thread.

 

Posted by: @jc5100

He's not playing in situations that emulate what he will see in the NFL.

Of course, he isn't. No college QB does, including Drake Maye. It's one the reasons it's difficult to scout QB's.

 

 
Posted : May. 15, 2023 8:41 am
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Posted by: @biggs3535

Posted by: @seapa

I don’t see that anyone else pointed this out, but Eli was not drafted by the Giants.

Good point.  Clearly Eli is in the "Trade" category of this poorly-thought-out thread.

 

Posted by: @jc5100

He's not playing in situations that emulate what he will see in the NFL.

Of course, he isn't. No college QB does, including Drake Maye. It's one the reasons it's difficult to scout QB's.

 

 

It's not difficult when you look at thing that matter. 

1. Footwork in the pocket.

2. Processing speed. 

3. Ball placement. 

4. Ball velocity. 

5. Decision making. 

You want to evaluate these categories when the QB in under duress. For some QBs like Maye, they're under duress damn near all game with WRs not seperating. For QBs like Williams it could only a handful of snaps. 

 

 

 
Posted : May. 15, 2023 8:49 am
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Posted by: @jc5100

It's not difficult when you look at thing that matter.

That's big talk from someone who said "Josh Rosen is the real deal" when he was a prospect. Now, Rosen is a guy that has been with seven different NFL franchises in five NFL seasons. Quite the accomplishment. I won't even go into your love fest for Luke McCown and Josh Freeman.

You can puff your chest out all you like, but there is a reason it's difficult to find QB's.

 
Posted : May. 15, 2023 9:16 am
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Posted by: @biggs3535

Posted by: @jc5100

It's not difficult when you look at thing that matter.

That's big talk from someone who said "Josh Rosen is the real deal" when he was a prospect. Now, Rosen is a guy that has been with seven different NFL franchises in five NFL seasons. Quite the accomplishment. I won't even go into your love fest for Luke McCown and Josh Freeman.

You can puff your chest out all you like, but there is a reason it's difficult to find QB's.

 

I did like Rosen. I also had a 1st round grade on Kirk Cousins who went in the 4th round. 

 

 
Posted : May. 15, 2023 10:12 am
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If the Bucs are just plain bad and end up with a top five pick.  The Bucs aren't going to tank, but the possibility exists they will be that bad.  If that happens, I'm sure we will take a QB.    I'd be all on board with that as would pretty much every Bucs fan.  If we are at the top of the draft, we're taking a QB.  The opportunity is there.  If you don't have a franchise QB you have to take that opportunity.   So that's really not the question.  

Which QBs will be busts?  You can argue that until the cows come home.  That's really a different question.   But nobody plans for their pick to be a bust.  What will the Bucs do what in the future? They certainly don't plan to take a bust QB.   Who turns out to be a bust isn't really the question either.

The real question is what should the Bucs do if they don't pick in the top two or three where there are consensus QBs.  Should they trade draft capital to move up, similar to what the Panthers did, trading multiple 1st and 2nd round picks to move up from 9 to 1?  Should we be "all in" on moving up next year like Carolina did?  With the Bucs uncertainty at the QB position, it's tempting to want to sell the farm just to address that position, which is the most important one on the field.  It's frustrating to not have that position addressed for the long term. But history would suggest that you have to find your own way to success and not be pigeonholed into thinking you have to do it that way. 

 
Posted : May. 15, 2023 10:47 am
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Posted by: @catherder

If the Bucs are just plain bad and end up with a top five pick.  The Bucs aren't going to tank, but the possibility exists they will be that bad.  If that happens, I'm sure we will take a QB.    I'd be all on board with that as would pretty much every Bucs fan.  If we are at the top of the draft, we're taking a QB.  The opportunity is there.  If you don't have a franchise QB you have to take that opportunity.   So that's really not the question.  

Which QBs will be busts?  You can argue that until the cows come home.  That's really a different question.   But nobody plans for their pick to be a bust.  What will the Bucs do what in the future? They certainly don't plan to take a bust QB.   Who turns out to be a bust isn't really the question either.

The real question is what should the Bucs do if they don't pick in the top two or three where there are consensus QBs.  Should they trade draft capital to move up, similar to what the Panthers did, trading multiple 1st and 2nd round picks to move up from 9 to 1?  Should we be "all in" on moving up next year like Carolina did?  With the Bucs uncertainty at the QB position, it's tempting to want to sell the farm just to address that position, which is the most important one on the field.  It's frustrating to not have that position addressed for the long term. But history would suggest that you have to find your own way to success and not be pigeonholed into thinking you have to do it that way. 

 

First of all, teams can absolutely turn a good QB into a bust. Playing them too early, changing play callers, not giving them an offensive line, etc. This is why I thought it was important for the Bucs to draft Anton Harrison to pair with Wirfs. But Mauch could be really good at LT also. 

 

Next year is the year to get a QB for the Bucs. If they're just outside the reach then yes they're going to have to trade up. 

 

 
Posted : May. 15, 2023 12:47 pm
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The primary reason QBs are tough to judge is because the position requires so much from the mental side of the game AND that is the hardest part to scout.

Remember that Winston was often billed as “most nfl ready qb” in many years.  He was the opposite. 

mayfield has wildly inconsistent performances because of his struggles with the mental side of the game. 

Montana was one of the greatest of all time because of his mental dominance 

 
Posted : May. 15, 2023 8:44 pm
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