Tampa Bay Buccaneers have had a terrible time running ball since 2015. Most fans would point to acquiring a new running back would solve all problems because most fans do not look into nuances.
RB Doug Martin showed up in 2012 and 2015. (He got injured six games into 2013, but was averaging 76 yards per game, a top-5 production for that season.) The commonality was the talent production in the Oline. Football Outsiders breaks down the Oline production into several categories: Adjusted Line Yards, Power, Stuff, and 2nd level.
Adjusted line yards is a formula that focuses on OLine play and rates it that way.
Power is the ability to gain 1-3 yards for a first down, which includes the QB running the ball. This is 100% on the OLine.
Stuff is event of the running back getting stopped at the line of scrimmage or behind it. This is 120% on the OLine.
2nd Level is how many times the running back earns 5-10 yards. The credit is 50% OLine and 50% RB.
Tampa Bay OLine Rankings, 2012 to present, FBO
2012: Adj line = 13, Power = 22, Stuff = 22, 2nd lvl = 15
2013: Adj line = 27, Power = 22, Stuff = 22, 2nd lvl = 16
2014: Adj line = 32, Power = 7, Stuff = 32, 2nd lvl = 25
2015: Adj line = 9, Power = 8, Stuff = 13, 2nd lvl = 13
2016: Adj line = 21, Power = 32, Stuff = 32, 2nd lvl = 25
2017: Adj line = 16, Power = 12, Stuff = 17, 2nd lvl = 31
2018: Adj line = 31, Power = 22, Stuff = 30, 2nd lvl = 27
2019: Adj line = 23, Power = 29, Stuff = 30, 2nd lvl = 28
We were above average in run blocking in 2012 and 2015. We were average in 2016, but that's because we fell forward easily with Marpet playing center; yet we had no athletic guards to get our running backs to the 2nd level.
There's another stat for run blocking called Open Field, but that's 100% on the running back.
2012: Open Field rank = 5 (Martin)
2013: Open Field rank = 13
2014: Open Field rank = 13
2015: Open Field rank = 1 (Martin)
2016: Open Field rank = 28
2017: Open Field rank = 30
2018: Open Field rank = 29
2019: Open Field rank = 27
Martin could take an average OLine, provided they could open holes to the 2nd level enough times, and make them look far better.
So we need an OLine first to fix, then grab a RB later. Grabbing a RB in the first round without properly addressing your OLine does not work as presented above.
Surprisingly, PFF ranked 130 NCAA OLines last year. I will share the top-7 RB prospects, according to WalterFootball, and apply the PFF collegiate OLine ranking next to those prospects.
1. Swift, Georgia. OL rank = 2nd
2. Taylor, Wisconsin. OL rank = 8th
3. Edwards-Helair, LSU. OL rank = 30th
4. Akers, FSU. OL rank = 129th
5. Dobbins, OSU. OL rank = 4th
6. Moss, Utah. OL rank = 70th
7. Dillon, BC. OL rank = 35th
The most intriguing candidate here is FSU's Akers. He produced 1144 yards and 14 TDs with that OLine. Also, he had 225 yards in the air with 4 TDs. And out of those seven prospects, Akers had the second fastest 40-time of 4.47.
Akers is not projected to be a first round pick, but many have him in the 2nd and 3rd rounds. We can address other priorities such as RT, S, or RG with our first two picks. Then trade back up into the 2nd round for an FSU player, no... not a kicker, but RB Akers.
