Update: If we lose next week, we get the #1 pick.That time of year... let me know if you see any errors. I'll update the chart in this post as games are decided.SOS as of Week 15 (i.e., not including TEN vs. JAX):TB: 106-115-3 (0.480)TEN: 110-113-1 (0.493)Note that these results match GBN found here: http://www.gbnreport.com/weeklydraftorder.html .Assuming that TB and TEN end with 2 wins each, we can boil this down into one metric: TB opponents' wins - TEN opponents' winsWe want this score to be negative. If it is positive, TEN gets the #1 pick. After week 15, the metric was -3 (107.5 - 110.5).So, use the following chart to track the metric. Red values help TB by strengthening TEN's SOS, blue helps TEN by strengthening TB's SOS. Smiley faces indicate that the pick has been decided via TB or TEN winning. We are Bucs fans, so we want red to happen.Note 12/20: The metric is essentially -2 (i.e., two game "lead" for the #1 pick over TEN) going into Sunday's games. If GB wins, it will go up by 1, but it will go down by at least one based on IND v DAL. With CAR likely to win, there's a good chance we go into week 17 at -1 or 0. Week 17 seems to favor us slightly.LAST UPDATED 12/21AFTER WEEK 15: METRIC = -3GAME RESULT METRICTEN v JAX JAX:-) -2 -2 -5PHI v WAS WAS -1 0 0 -5 SD v SF SD 0 0 0 -5BUF v OAK OAK 0 0 0 -5SEA v ARI SEA 0 0 0 -5DEN v CIN ?? 0 0 0 -5ATL v NO ATL +2 +2 +2 -3DET v CHI DET +1 +1 +1 -2 GB v TB GB +1 :-( +1 -1MIN v MIA MIA +1 0 0 -1BAL v HOU HOU 0 -2 -2 -3CLE v CAR CAR 0 +2 +2 -1 KC v PIT PIT -1 0 0 -1 NE v NYJ NE 0 -1 0 -1NYG v STL NYG -1 +1 -1 -2IND v DAL DAL -2 -1 -1 -3AFTER WEEK 16: METRIC = -3GAME RESULT METRICCLE v BAL ?? 0 0 0 -3BUF v NE ?? 0 0 0 -3CIN v PIT ?? 0 0 0 -3OAK v DEN ?? 0 0 0 -3ARI v SF ?? 0 0 0 -3CAR v ATL ?? +2 +2 +2 -1DET v GB ?? +1 +1 +1 0CHI v MIN ?? +1 +1 +1 +1PHI v NYG ?? -1 -1 -1 0JAX v HOU ?? -2 -2 -2 -2IND v TEN -2 :-) NO v TB +2 :-(DAL v WAS -1 0 SD v KC 0 -1NYJ v MIA -1 0STL v SEA +1 0AFTER WEEK 17: METRIC = ??[between -5 and -1] CLINCHED
