Tampa Bay Buccaneers
Biggest Need: running game
I'm not sure how to partition blame for the Buccaneers' run offense, which ranked 27th in DVOA in 2019. Running backs Ronald Jones and Peyton Barber are easy targets, ranking 29th and 45th among the 45 backs with 100 or more carries with 4.2 and 3.1 yards per carry, and 23rd and 45th with -2.7% and -29.7% rushing DVOA. But the Bucs' offense line also struggled to block for Jones and Barber, finishing among the bottom 10 teams with 3.99 adjusted line yards. One way or another, the team needs to find a way to make improvements there for 2020, and not just so they'll fare better on the run plays they call.
Incumbent quarterback Jameis Winston has been particularly sensitive to the downs and distances of his pass attempts. His aggressive nature has led him to a 4.0% career interception rate on obvious passing downs (which I'm defining here as first-down attempts with at least 11 yards to go, second-down attempts with at least 7 yards to go, and third- and fourth-down attempts with at least 3 yards to go). That's 34th of the 34 quarterbacks with at least 1,000 attempts since 2015 and 54% worse than the league average of 2.6%. In contrast, Winston has produced a palatable interception rate of 2.9% on other downs and distances, fifth worst and just 38% worse than the league average of 2.1%. Winston has been unable to cut down on his turnovers on his own in his five-year career, so if the Bucs want to continue to rely on him at quarterback -- which is not a given since he is also a free agent -- they should aim to minimize his plays with increased turnover potential.
Major Free Agents: Jameis Winston, QB; Breshad Perriman, WR; Ndamukong Suh, DE; Jason Pierre-Paul, DE; Shaquil Barrett, OLB; Carl Nassib, OLB
The Bucs may be reluctant to increase their financial commitment to the running game if it would rob Peter to pay Paul. The team's surprising jump from five to nine wins and 24th to 14th in overall DVOA was carried by defensive improvements, and that has left the team with a handful of costly free-agent defenders. The most valuable of that bunch is pass-rusher Shaquil Barrett, who led the league with 19.5 sacks and finished fifth with 55 pass pressures. But Jason Pierre-Paul, Ndamukong Suh, and Carl Nassib added 29, 28, and 24 pass pressures, respectively, as well as four, five, and six run defeats to contribute to the league's best run defense by DVOA.
The Bucs may want to hold onto several of those key defenders. Fortunately for the team, they may be able to. Their near-$85 million in available cap space is the third most in football and way ahead of all three of their NFC South rivals. They should have some financial flexibility even after they address quarterback, and even if the way they address quarterback is a cap-expensive franchise tagging of Jameis Winston.
