I just stumbled upon this great 3 part series by Doug Farrar called "The Match Game" on why NFL defenses have done so poorly.
I'll post Part 1 (site won't let me do more). All 3 parts are well worth a read. https://touchdownwire.usatoday.com/2018/11/06/the-match-game-part-1-how-nfl-defenses-lost-their-way/
Part 1 Summary:
NFL defences are running old coverages that they ran 10-15 years ago. Offences are innovating out the ying yang, defences are running static Cover 3.
Not only are the schemes out-dated, but how they're taught. Modern offences force defences to be highly communicative and adapted. These are not prioritized nearly enough. Defences are confused far too easily by jet motion, RPOs, etc.
Part 2 Summary:
Alignment and assignment football isn't good enough anymore. Old coaches are being caught out and not adapting - all the young coaches are on the offensive side of the ball right now. Where are the young defensive masterminds? The McVay of defense?
Crazy story: When RG3 went to Washington, Del Rio and John Fox in Denver had no idea how to stop him. They were pulling out their hair. But zone read is like a Day 1 install.
This is part of why so much of the current defensive answer is just man football. NFL defences didn't have an answer when Tampa 2 got broken so they've just gone back to man. But man only works if you have superior athletes at almost all positions.
NFL offences are stealing from high school teams - this is seen as the bedrock of football innovation that trickles up. But per the article, NFL defences are not doing this. It's a Boys Club where everyone is doing much the same, out-dated thing.
Part 3 Summary:
What's the answer, and where have some defences had a bit of success? Match coverage. And ideally, match quarters. While pattern match is old (its been in the CFL forever and Belichick/Saban ran it in Cleveland in the 90s) per Louis Riddick most teams have long gone back to spot dropping. Even the Patriots. Maybe practice time? Or just bad coaching/strategy?
Yes, offense rules changes have helped. But NFL offences are adapting to this at "hyperspeed" while there are no young, innovative defensive minds. Riddick says defensive coaching is the worst he's ever seen.
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I'm not saying I agree with everything Farrar says. But I was blown away by the possibilities of match coverage when I first was introduced to it at 20. It's a far, far superior coverage that is only limited by the players' football IQ and willingness to communicate. It is essentially the "option route" for defences.
Specifically to the Buccaneers, it does make me a little more concerned about Bowles. Everything I've seen from him is that he's aggressive but old school. He was painted as a bad coach Pepper Johnson ( https://deadspin.com/q-a-pepper-johnson-on-drinking-with-bill-belichick-sp-1828726414), whatever you make of that. He's had 3 successful season in 7 as a DC/HC.
But the point isn't Bowles. This is an interesting look at the lack of defensive evolution league-wide.
