4th overall = NYG
8th overall = Ari
10th overall = Cle
11th overall = NYJ
In most mocks, the top-4 OTs in the draft are taken by pick 11 and the Bucs own the 14th overall pick. Many of us Buc fans are hoping one of those teams drafts a different player from OT in the draft. How likely are those four teams not going to select an OT?
I'll be looking at raw offensive yard production rankings, scoring differentials, and FBO OLine rankings to see if any of the aforementioned teams can afford to pass up on one of the top-4 OTs.
Raw Offensive Yards Ranking
NYG: Pass = 18th, Run = 18th
Ari: Pass = 24th, Run = 10th
Cle: Pass = 22nd, Run = 12th
NYJ: Pass = 29th, Run = 31st
The NYG might be the only team that looks like it can afford to go away from an OT as it's the closest team to being average in both pass and rush productions. The other three need help in pass production, which could be either better OL or WR personnel.
Most likely not to draft an OT here: NYG
Scoring Differential
NYG: Off= 21.3, Def = 28.2, Differential = -6.9
Ari: Off= 20.9, Def = 27.6, Differential = -6.7
Cle: Off= 22.6, Def = 24.6, Differential = -2.0
NYJ: Off= 17.2, Def = 22.4, Differential = -5.2
All four teams need help to produce better defense, but all four teams are at 16th over worse in offensive ranking. With rumors that the NYG are interested in OLB Simmons, giving up 28.2 ppg on defense could become a probability.
Most likely not to draft an OT here: Cle
FBO OL Block Ranking and sacks allowed
NYG: Run = 25th, Pass = 17th, Sacks Allowed = 43
Ari: Run = 22nd, Pass = 26th, Sacks Allowed = 50
Cle: Run = 10th, Pass = 18th, Sacks Allowed = 41
NYJ: Run = 31st, Pass = 30th, Sacks Allowed = 52
Ari and NYJ need to improve to reduce their sacks allowed. NYG and Cle are near the average in sacks allowed. Only Cle had a good run blocking unit.
Most likely not to draft an OT here: Cle
QB Hits Allowed (NFL's site)
NYG: Rank = 30th, QB Hits allowed = 119
Ari: Rank = 6th, QB Hits allowed = 69
Cle: Rank = 4th, QB Hits allowed = 67
NYJ: Rank = 27th, QB Hits allowed = 106
Arizona is interesting because they have a low QB hits, but a high sack rate. That would be kudos to Arizona's elusive rookie QB to avoid too many QB hits. Unfortunately, seeing the NYG having that many QB hits is making me not think they want OLB Simmons because 119 QB hits is scary.
Most likely not to draft an OT here: Cle
Although Cleveland has the better offensive scoring and OL blocking, they are in need of a starting LT despite signing RT Conklin. The NYG needs a replacement for the slipping LT Solder. Arizona needs help at both OT positions. The NYJ also needs help at both OT's.
Doing this research work is making me hate doing it because it reveals that all those teams do need to improve their OL groups and the probability of one of the top-4 OT's slipping to us is becoming more of a dream than a probable possibility. Man, I hope I'm wrong b/c I'd love one of those top-4 OT's!
