The formula is simple but most teams lack the discipline to stick to it. Build a team around a rookie QB contract or build a team and bring in a mid QB.
Even with Mahomes receiving all that money the Chiefs have been disciplined building a team. When you hand a QB a second contract that is taking up a huge chunk of cap space you have to trade away a lot of your good players before they hit FAs for draft picks. The Chiefs are constantly churning their roster every off season and the Patriots churned their roster quite often as well when BB was the HC.
The Bucs haven't really had to churn their roster that much because outside of Brady contract the Bucs do not have that problem moving forward.
The formula is simple but most teams lack the discipline to stick to it. Build a team around a rookie QB contract or build a team and bring in a mid QB.
Even with Mahomes receiving all that money the Chiefs have been disciplined building a team. When you hand a QB a second contract that is taking up a huge chunk of cap space you have to trade away a lot of your good players before they hit FAs for draft picks. The Chiefs are constantly churning their roster every off season and the Patriots churned their roster quite often as well when BB was the HC.
The Bucs haven't really had to churn their roster that much because outside of Brady contract the Bucs do not have that problem moving forward.
All good points but one way to take your post is as an example of the actual problem or maybe at least the potential problem people are discussing.
I say that because your two examples are teams with spectacular coaches and true GOAT, best in class QBs. So you are accurately describing the ASPIRATIONAL model for all NFL teams, but the reality in the NFL is less Brady and Mahomes and more Lawrence, Goff , Allen and Burrow.
And its still the case that the NFL team getting a chance at these kinds of guys USUALLY earned it by being really BAD. Mahomes/KC story is a notable exception. The more typical story though is a bad Bengals team or mediocre Bills team each taking ONE of those early QB contract years to at least turn things around. So, very tight window to actually win it before that big second contract comes around.
True but the structure on how those teams deal with mega QB contracts is clear. You have to unload players for draft picks which will be playing on rookie deals. The Chiefs unloaded T. Hill because they knew moving forward it was not going to work with their salary cap structure with Mahomes' contract.
Brady would take many home town discounts but the Patriots churned the roster often maybe too much to the point it made Brady feel like they were doing more harm than good to compete for SBs.
The Bills are at that cross roads right now and to an extent the Bengals and Jags. Chargers are also in a similar boat as they are all navigating some dicey salary cap challenges.
True but the structure on how those teams deal with mega QB contracts is clear. You have to unload players for draft picks which will be playing on rookie deals. The Chiefs unloaded T. Hill because they knew moving forward it was not going to work with their salary cap structure with Mahomes' contract.
There's some truth to this, but it wasn't quite that simple.
The fact was that Chiefs GM Veach went to a lot of trouble to try and re-sign Tyreek, including restructuring a couple contracts (Pat and someone else). What threw a wrench in the plan was the fact that Davante Adams got his mega-deal and then I think it was AJ Brown (I remember that there were two WRs that got massive deals before Tyreek was traded, but I'm hazy on whether AJ's was the other deal) that also got a massive deal, and suddenly the $25 million/yr AAV that Veach had offered Hill wasn't quite enough.
It should also be noted that Tyreek did in fact want to stay in KC, but unsurprisingly in the end, he chose the $$$ from MIA. $30 million/yr is $30 million/yr after all.
So the Chiefs fielding a WR group of mediocre WRs without Tyreek in 2022 wasn't part of the original plan; it was in fact an unplanned pivot when the market for WRs went haywire and Veach had to do some quick thinking. None of this is speculation either; Veach's pressers on the subject of how Tyreek got traded can be found on YT.
Overall, though your premise concerning how a roster needs to be built is sound, imho.
So at a minimum the current QB salary ranges force teams to draft really well because they have to anticipate being unable to compete for their own star players, like the Chiefs with Hill.
True but the structure on how those teams deal with mega QB contracts is clear. You have to unload players for draft picks which will be playing on rookie deals. The Chiefs unloaded T. Hill because they knew moving forward it was not going to work with their salary cap structure with Mahomes' contract.
There's some truth to this, but it wasn't quite that simple.
The fact was that Chiefs GM Veach went to a lot of trouble to try and re-sign Tyreek, including restructuring a couple contracts (Pat and someone else). What threw a wrench in the plan was the fact that Davante Adams got his mega-deal and then I think it was AJ Brown (I remember that there were two WRs that got massive deals before Tyreek was traded, but I'm hazy on whether AJ's was the other deal) that also got a massive deal, and suddenly the $25 million/yr AAV that Veach had offered Hill wasn't quite enough.
It should also be noted that Tyreek did in fact want to stay in KC, but unsurprisingly in the end, he chose the $$$ from MIA. $30 million/yr is $30 million/yr after all.
So the Chiefs fielding a WR group of mediocre WRs without Tyreek in 2022 wasn't part of the original plan; it was in fact an unplanned pivot when the market for WRs went haywire and Veach had to do some quick thinking. None of this is speculation either; Veach's pressers on the subject of how Tyreek got traded can be found on YT.
Overall, though your premise concerning how a roster needs to be built is sound, imho.
I agree to an extent but Veach wasn't being really honest because the WR market was going to be that way based on what was happening before that season and teams were heavily investing in drafting WRs on rookie deals early in the draft.
The Titans is a good exmaple, because they chose to keep a mid Tannehill around and then drafting Burkes while ditching AJ Brown and that blew up in their faces. It cost Vrabel his job and Robinson his job too. But they felt to control cap costs they had to trade Brown.
So teams have to choose between paying a QB or WR talent. It is hard to pay QBs and WRs with these mega contracts which is why teams like the Seahawks and Vikings are okay with paying their star WRs but looking for other QBs to bridge the gap either with vets or QBs on rookie deals.
The Pats this off season were looking to pay mega bucks to a WR but they find no suitors to help their rookie QB signal caller.
True but the structure on how those teams deal with mega QB contracts is clear. You have to unload players for draft picks which will be playing on rookie deals. The Chiefs unloaded T. Hill because they knew moving forward it was not going to work with their salary cap structure with Mahomes' contract.
There's some truth to this, but it wasn't quite that simple.
The fact was that Chiefs GM Veach went to a lot of trouble to try and re-sign Tyreek, including restructuring a couple contracts (Pat and someone else). What threw a wrench in the plan was the fact that Davante Adams got his mega-deal and then I think it was AJ Brown (I remember that there were two WRs that got massive deals before Tyreek was traded, but I'm hazy on whether AJ's was the other deal) that also got a massive deal, and suddenly the $25 million/yr AAV that Veach had offered Hill wasn't quite enough.
It should also be noted that Tyreek did in fact want to stay in KC, but unsurprisingly in the end, he chose the $$$ from MIA. $30 million/yr is $30 million/yr after all.
So the Chiefs fielding a WR group of mediocre WRs without Tyreek in 2022 wasn't part of the original plan; it was in fact an unplanned pivot when the market for WRs went haywire and Veach had to do some quick thinking. None of this is speculation either; Veach's pressers on the subject of how Tyreek got traded can be found on YT.
Overall, though your premise concerning how a roster needs to be built is sound, imho.
I agree to an extent but Veach wasn't being really honest because the WR market was going to be that way based on what was happening before that season and teams were heavily investing in drafting WRs on rookie deals early in the draft.
The Titans is a good exmaple, because they chose to keep a mid Tannehill around and then drafting Burkes while ditching AJ Brown and that blew up in their faces. It cost Vrabel his job and Robinson his job too. But they felt to control cap costs they had to trade Brown.
So teams have to choose between paying a QB or WR talent. It is hard to pay QBs and WRs with these mega contracts which is why teams like the Seahawks and Vikings are okay with paying their star WRs but looking for other QBs to bridge the gap either with vets or QBs on rookie deals.
The Pats this off season were looking to pay mega bucks to a WR but they find no suitors to help their rookie QB signal caller.
GMs are rarely completely honest. For obvious reasons.
However, when you look at the chronology of events prior to Tyreek getting traded, including when Veach made those restructuring moves, then after the trade, how long it took for Veach to eventually sign both MVS and JJSS, the overpay for KT and the roll of the dice on JWat, plus his multiple admissions during those pressers, it seems pretty clear that Veach really thought he was going to sign Tyreek, and not have to make all those other moves.
And I really don't think anyone thought the WR market was going to suddenly jump the way it did. I don't know anyone that thought any WR was going to get $30 million/yr in 2022. $25+ million, maybe up to $27 million, but not more than that. But then Christian Kirk or some decent-but-not-great WR got $20 million or whatever, and the floodgates opened.
But then Christian Kirk or some decent-but-not-great WR got $20 million or whatever, and the floodgates opened.
The part in bold is why I mentioned it as a "problem."
It might be one league, but its a league of individual teams with their own self-interests. Because of the CBA, Florio spun the concept of a QB cap as a potential informal agreement. Putting aside other problems with that concept, it would probably never happen because teams look out for themselves. Can anyone imagine a team declining to get a 2019/2020 Tom Brady because his demand was $100K above some informally agreed QB cap? lol
Someone like Shanahan or McDaniel is going to pass on signing up a long term QB as they don’t need the QB to be the focal point of the team. As long as they can find someone like Purdy to follow strict instructions, they are in good shape.
Yeah that's a great point. What does the offense require to be elite within its style?
Chiefs have won post-Hill for a few reasons.
Mahomes is a masterclass QB.
Reid is a masterclass offensive guru.
They have a top 5 defensive coordinator.
Chiefs get more calls than any team and it isn't even close.
That's a tough combo to compete against and even still they were just 1 or 2 plays away from losing b2b super bowls... So a little lucky as well (Hurts' unforced fumble for example).
Trying to replicate the NFL darlings (Chiefs is a fool's errand).
Further, the elite QBs will never make it to FA... So you gotta draft them or pray you get a Brady or Stafford situation.
So imo the best way to do it is what Licht is doing... Dangle the carrot in front of an average QB like Baker and hope he plays above average... And know he'll likely never be elite.
You almost have to throw out Brady or Mahomes led teams. They are on Mount Rushmore of QBs all time.
so who else has won in the last decade?
stafford on a loaded rams team
nick Foles led by the football gods giving eagles fans some glory
You almost have to throw out Brady or Mahomes led teams. They are on Mount Rushmore of QBs all time.
so who else has won in the last decade?
stafford on a loaded rams team
nick Foles led by the football gods giving eagles fans some glory
100%.
There's only about 5 'elite' QBs in the league in any decade, and right now there's not even that. Imo, there's only one elite QB, Pat Mahomes. At least for now. Aaron Rodgers may or may not get back there. I doubt there's any chance that Russell Wilson will climb back into the top-5. So at best, we're talking about two elite QBs.
So, the idea that a team can just keep drafting QBs hoping to light upon the next Mahomes/Brady/Manning/Rodgers/Brees is just stupid. I think SF is doing it the right way; assembling a team that's strong on defense, OL, receivers and a top-5 OC/HC, with a QB good enough to get the ball to his weapons without turning the ball over a lot. SF got lucky in that Jimmy G. and Purdy, while not elite in any way, could both operate the offense efficiently didn't turn the ball over much. They were both good enough, with those great teams around them, to reach the SB. And in both cases were close to winning Rings.
Of course, they'll have to pay Purdy at some point in the near future, and I doubt they'll want to pay him more than about $40 million/yr AAV. And they probably shouldn't, because he's not good enough to warrant that kind of payday. But when that happens, they won't be able to hang onto a lot of those pieces they've surrounded him with, and then they'll probably lose their SB window. Until they can find another low-cost QB.
Is that a great strategy for creating a dynasty? Maybe, maybe not. But can they win a Ring that way? Absolutely. Lots of teams have won a Ring with an average/below average QB under center. Nick Foles did it most recently.
Someone like Shanahan or McDaniel is going to pass on signing up a long term QB as they don’t need the QB to be the focal point of the team. As long as they can find someone like Purdy to follow strict instructions, they are in good shape.
This is why I expressed some concerns about Mayfield this year. Last year he played mostly in a a QB-friendly offense (eg heavy run emphasis, limited pre-snap changes etc). This year more of the McVay stye with Mayfield running everything.
So imo the best way to do it is what Licht is doing... Dangle the carrot in front of an average QB like Baker and hope he plays above average
And the best way for him to play above average is in a QB-friendly system like Canales ran. How did Russell Wilson do AFTER exiting the Carroll system? He went to Payton so its not like he went to some flat offensive mind. Well, this was the reporting from Pro Football Talk:
"Broncos’ Sean Payton had to simplify offense for Russell Wilson | Pro Football Talk | NFL on NBC"
I dont know what to expect from Coen, but last season Mayfield played in a very controlled offense that focused on keeping the team on schedule (down/distance) and then hitting explosives. If that team had a competent running game Mayfield goes even further.
Yeah that's a great point. What does the offense require to be elite within its style?
Yes, sir.
There’s maybe 3-5 elite QB’s in the league today.
Yet, there’s a few offenses that can make a mediocre/average QB look like a pro bowler.
I think there’s essentially 2 ways to do it in today’s NFL:
1. Build a stacked roster around a rookie QB contract. Give yourself a 3-4 year window.
2. Build a decent to good roster and go all-in on a top-tier FA QB for a 1-2 year window.
We’re essentially doing the 2nd one, minus the top-tier QB, and hoping to catch lighting in a bottle. Crazier things have happened.
