1) Todd Bowles. Most likely the HC of the Bucs in 2024 will be Todd Bowles. That's a discussion in itself, but in the end that's the reality. There's no reason to go out and hire an inexperienced coordinator and let them learn on the job at the expense of guys like Wirfs and Winfield. And there's no reason to hire another run of the mill retread just to have a change when they wouldn't really be any better than Bowles.
But there's another possibility. That is the owners pulling rank and demanding that Licht go for the home run and hire a big time head coach and basically hand him the keys. That's what Rich McKay had to do to get Gruden, and it led to McKay eventually leaving. Licht hired Arians who didn't want to shop for his own groceries. Both big time hires led to Superbowl wins. Not to mention the Glazers will be looking to start the ball rolling on a new stadium and will need to drum up some excitement.
There's only one guy who fits the description IMO, unless Kirby Smart goes to the NFL which he isn't going to do. Lincoln Riley is looking to go to the NFL. Not exciting enough.
2) Jim Harbaugh. The Glazers have swung for the fences twice, and both times hit a home run. Don't be surprised if they try to do it again.
I think the Glazers got Gruden, not McKay?
Bowles is 50/50 now, the only slight benefit to him is the team is intentionally going through a cap clearing rebuild so he might have a safer job then most think
That's my point. That the Glazers could take the lead and demand that Licht make every effort to hire Harbaugh, like they did with McKay and Gruden. If they fire Bowles before they go after Harbaugh that's a big risk. They could fail to get Harbaugh and then they're up a creek. Of course Gruden was the fall back guy himself, when the Bucs fired Dungy and then failed to hire Steve Mariucci. But I just don't see a good fall back option if the Bucs were to try to hire Harbaugh and failed. That's why, if the Bucs were to go after Harbaugh, there could be a lot of very hush hush behind the scenes bargaining between agents with the Bucs having deniability.I think the Glazers got Gruden, not McKay?
Bowles is 50/50 now, the only slight benefit to him is the team is intentionally going through a cap clearing rebuild so he might have a safer job then most think
This is crazy speculation and probably nothing like this is happening. But if Harbaugh is contemplating going to the NFL, it's likely his agent already has the feelers out there. If he has feelers out there, the Glazers ears may be perking up. That's not crazy IMO.
I'm in the camp that this is an adjustment year due to the dead money, cap constraints, and new coaches. Bowles will get at least one more year. Just MHO.
I agree that's the most likely outcome.I'm in the camp that this is an adjustment year due to the dead money, cap constraints, and new coaches. Bowles will get at least one more year. Just MHO.
We certainly need an offensive minded head coach - other than Buffalo - today's best teams have those head coaches and it's not by coincidence.
not sure Harbaugh would come here unless we somehow had a high enough draft pick to land a top prospect QB in the draft.
We finish the season with 6 wins or less, i think Bowles is fired and they start fresh
We finish with more, even with a playoff miss, i think Bowles gets another chance given the cap correction year. Also that puts us in a spot where a top QB isn't likely and just another wasted year anyway so start a new in 2025 after we have a shit 2024.
I definitely don't think Bowles is the answer at HC. Too conservative of a game-manager and too stubborn to make obvious changes. Joe Tryon, Neal, and White needs to sit if not be benched. White is clearly hurt and not moving how we're use to seeing. Why not limit his snaps?
I see it as one more season of this clown show and then we're moving on in 2025. We're an attractive landing spot and feel like we could hire someone who's willing to develop a QB.
I definitely don't think Bowles is the answer at HC. Too conservative of a game-manager and too stubborn to make obvious changes. Joe Tryon, Neal, and White needs to sit if not be benched. White is clearly hurt and not moving how we're use to seeing. Why not limit his snaps?
I see it as one more season of this clown show and then we're moving on in 2025. We're an attractive landing spot and feel like we could hire someone who's willing to develop a QB.
i mean the only thing that would make us attractive is if we are able to be in a position to get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Other than that, i see us getting a first time head coach coordinator type. Same goes if you push it out a year to 2025.
on offense, assuming we re-sign players we should we have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Tristian Wirfs. While other players have potential that is the only players that would make a head coaches ears perk up; paring a young rookie QB with two top WRs and a HoF caliber OT. Still alot of work needed on the offnese.
on defense, we got an above average secondary led by Winfield, Davis, and Dean; but also very injury prone secondary. Our LB/Edge is very mediocre at best. Likely should move on from Shaq and JTR next year in terms of starters and for cap and performance reasons. We should bring back David as long as he is serviceable and wants to continue playing career. Can likely replace White with a 3rd or 4th rounder at a fraction of the cost. Vita Vea only one currently worth a damn on the defensive line with some potential with Kancey.
so yeah i know we are Buc Fans and see some talent but i dont know, i dont see how we aren't middle of the pack to most teams - probably in the 12th to 22nd best team on any given Sunday talent wise.
If I recall correctly I think McKay' first choice to replace Dungy was another defensive minded coach in Marvin Lewis, before the Glazers veto'd and attempted Mooch, Parcells (jilted again thankfully) and finally Gruden. As for what's going on now, I agree that the Glazers definitely need an offensive minded coach that follows analytics and isn't stubborn and slow to make changes to the depth chart.
As for enticing personnel I agree both Evans (if we can bring him back), Godwin along with Wirfs and a greatly improved Goedeke, and a hopefully improved Mauch in year 2 are solid a solid foundation to build on offensively.
On the defensive side while a veteran group has A LOT of questions and some promise. Kancey has looked disruptive when he's played, Vita Vea is a monster in the middle of the line. Even though Shaq Barrett only technically has one year left on his deal, the restructures are hard to swallow. If he's cut during 2024 season it triggers a 26 million dead cap hit, if he goes elsewhere in 2025 he still counts as a 17 million dead cap hit. JTS, and Devin White are playing their way out of Tampa, but if Bowles is retained I fear he tries to apply pressure to Licht to re-sign White. David if re-signed will be another year older(but still solid), CD24 is solid in man but not a true shut down corner, Dean since he got his contract I feel like has gotten lax and is getting outplayed by Zyon, Winfield if he continues his current trajectory could be a future HOF safety. Next year will definitely be a big year for the franchise no matter who is Pirating the ship.
Need either a QB to succeed in this league or a stacked roster. We have neither. Appreciate we tried with Winston and Freeman but it's time to try again. But we need to make sure we put the guy in a position to succeed and that starts with a good play caller, 2 top WRs, and an offensive line than can protect.
let's look at the SB AFC contenders this year with arguably top 10 QBs.
Miami 6 -2 - Tua - 1st round, 5th overall
Buffalo 5-3 - Allen - 1st round, 7th overall
Baltimore 6-2 - Jackson - 1st round, 32nd overall
Cincy 4-3 - Borrow - 1st round, 1st overall
Jacksonville - 6-2 Lawrence - 1st round, 1st overall
Chiefs 6-2 - Mahomes, 1st round, 10th overall
Chargers 3-4 - Herbert, 1st round - 6th overall
those 7 teams are in AFC playoff picture and all have undoubtedly QBs in the top 10 of the league. Who else is in the AFC picture - Jets, Pittsburgh, and Cleveland realistically rounding it out. These teams all have 1st round picks as well but more driven by coaching or defense and nobody really has them in the Superbowl discussion sans an Aaron Rodgers return.
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the NFC is a different story with Philadelphia and Dallas along with 49ers being top 3 teams in the league, for last 5 years, it seems they have been solid teams with guest appearances by Brady's Bucs and Dream Team Rams. Now add in Detroit and Seattle to round out top 5 but as you can see the NFC is much weaker.
So Hurts was a second round pick, Purdy a 7th, and Dak a 4th. But what separates these teams from say a team like the Bucs is that they are unbelievable at drafting. Sure the Eagles have swung and missed on WRs but talent wise, these teams are on another level. You put Baker Mayfield on those rosters and i am guessing their records are no worse than 5 wins (Eagles at 7, Cowboys, 49ers at 5 as is)
Detroit and Seahawks likely a factor of weak NFC.
Detroit had impressive win over Chiefs but is 5-0 against NFC South, Green Bay, and Raiders.
Seattle got blown out by Rams, lost to Bengals, and beat the Lions. Wins against the Panthers, Giants, Cardinals, and Browns.
not taking anything away from them but other than potentially beating each other or an NFC South team, dont really see either of those upsetting the top 3 in the league.
Bucs might have to make some trades. This is a deep qb class this coming year and it might be worth investing. I don't know where will be in the draft but if I'm betting man I'd say between 16-8th draft slot position. Not only do we need a qb but we need an EDGE rusher. So if we miss out on a qb, we have other important needs that has to be addressed.I definitely don't think Bowles is the answer at HC. Too conservative of a game-manager and too stubborn to make obvious changes. Joe Tryon, Neal, and White needs to sit if not be benched. White is clearly hurt and not moving how we're use to seeing. Why not limit his snaps?
I see it as one more season of this clown show and then we're moving on in 2025. We're an attractive landing spot and feel like we could hire someone who's willing to develop a QB.
i mean the only thing that would make us attractive is if we are able to be in a position to get Caleb Williams or Drake Maye. Other than that, i see us getting a first time head coach coordinator type. Same goes if you push it out a year to 2025.
on offense, assuming we re-sign players we should we have Mike Evans, Chris Godwin, and Tristian Wirfs. While other players have potential that is the only players that would make a head coaches ears perk up; paring a young rookie QB with two top WRs and a HoF caliber OT. Still alot of work needed on the offnese.
on defense, we got an above average secondary led by Winfield, Davis, and Dean; but also very injury prone secondary. Our LB/Edge is very mediocre at best. Likely should move on from Shaq and JTR next year in terms of starters and for cap and performance reasons. We should bring back David as long as he is serviceable and wants to continue playing career. Can likely replace White with a 3rd or 4th rounder at a fraction of the cost. Vita Vea only one currently worth a damn on the defensive line with some potential with Kancey.
so yeah i know we are Buc Fans and see some talent but i dont know, i dont see how we aren't middle of the pack to most teams - probably in the 12th to 22nd best team on any given Sunday talent wise.
Yes McKay was directed to do this, even though it meant effectively bringing in someone who would have more power than him. McKay had to leave and Gruden brought in his own choice for GM. Would the Glazers do the same thing to Licht? I have feel like Licht probably has more than pull than McKay who had not won a Superbowl by then.If I recall correctly I think McKay' first choice to replace Dungy was another defensive minded coach in Marvin Lewis, before the Glazers veto'd and attempted Mooch, Parcells (jilted again thankfully) and finally Gruden. As for what's going on now, I agree that the Glazers definitely need an offensive minded coach that follows analytics and isn't stubborn and slow to make changes to the depth chart.
As for needing an offensive mind, yes we do but that's a Catch 22 because we don't need a defensive mind....until you fire the head coach. When the Bucs fired Dungy they brought in an offensive guy, but they kept the DC Monte Kiffin. That was a key to the success there. There's no Kiffin on our defensive staff right now.
Regarding Harbaugh, he's not Bruce Arians, an old guy who just wanted to coach and had no interest in shopping for the groceries. Harbaugh has the pull to call the shots with whatever organization wants to bring him in. Would Harbaugh want to work with Licht? Maybe, maybe not. Would Licht want to play second fiddle, when he would get hired in a flash by somebody else? I guess it's possible that Licht and Harbaugh could team up, but not likely IMO.
What could help get Harbaugh here is if the Bucs were able to have a draft position to get JJ McCarthy, who some are projecting to be a top ten pick.
Crazier offseasons have happened at OneBuc than the one I'm discussing above. That is a fact that can not be disputed.
The word “analytics” is a hilarious thing offered all the time when things don’t go well, mostly because it’s such a vague thing and misunderstood by so many
this is Canales
“
There Canales made it clear he’s very much an analytics guy.
“If you’re not using advanced stats and analytics, you’re missing it,” Canales said.
“What it does, same thing with the [NFL Scouting Combine], it allows you to cover the outliers really quickly. So it shows you, ‘This is really good. This is really bad.’ The part in the middle is where it doesn’t help you as much because that’s the part that’s like, ‘Hey, these are all about average numbers.’ You gotta dig in. Watch the film.”
The original post… My God…the mental gymnastics…
The word “analytics” is a hilarious thing offered all the time when things don’t go well, mostly because it’s such a vague thing and misunderstood by so many
this is Canales
“
There Canales made it clear he’s very much an analytics guy.
“If you’re not using advanced stats and analytics, you’re missing it,” Canales said.
“What it does, same thing with the [NFL Scouting Combine], it allows you to cover the outliers really quickly. So it shows you, ‘This is really good. This is really bad.’ The part in the middle is where it doesn’t help you as much because that’s the part that’s like, ‘Hey, these are all about average numbers.’ You gotta dig in. Watch the film.”
while I agree with this and it being used more and more as a buzzword and catch all. I remember Canales speaking of being analytical coach, but if your head coach that can and will override said analytic based choices more times than not defeats the purpose. I know Bowles is said to be pretty hands off as it relates to the offense, but you can tell that his fingerprint is definitely on the overall look of this offense
