I'm sure Licht is not interested in tearing down the offense and starting over again after just hiring a new OC last year and spending the whole year trying to develop an O-line that fits that system. He would love to keep Canales regardless of what happens to Bowles. But if the Bucs lose and fire Bowles I don't know how they hire a new HC while telling him who his OC will be. That would mean Canales was more beholden to Licht than the new HC and there could be friction because of that.
I think Licht would just as soon keep moving forward with the status quo. I don't think he's itching to make a change. However, the Glazers may not be on that page. They think about the ticket sales and profile of the team. If they can make a big splash they will do that.
One (crazy perhaps) option is to hire Bill Belichick. At this stage of his career he may be willing to take on a Bruce Arians role. He's struggled with the personnel side and with his offensive coordinators. Perhaps he'd be willing to take the Arians approach and totally focus on the job he's good at - Head Coach. He would be somebody who wouldn't be threatened by taking on an OC he didn't hire himself. The only question is does he care to follow the path of Tom Brady?
Crazy? Maybe, but we've had some crazy unpredictable stuff going on in offeasons here in Tampa Bay in the past. It would allow the Glazers to make the big splash while allowing Licht to continue building what he's building. If the Bucs beat Carolina I think they just roll with the status quo. But if the Bucs lose don't be shocked to see Belichick as the HC of the Buccaneers. Well, we'll all be shocked including myself, but I'm just throwing that possibility out there.
yeah it wouldn't surprise me that the Glazers or Licht would want it and would be an upgrade but he would need to keep his ego in check, meaning he doesn't call the shots on the roster; and doesn't have defensive coordinators as offensive coordinators, etc.
i have my doubts that Belichick will want to take a step back from what he has now in terms of power or control. He may be open to it with New England where he is comfortable but i cant see him doing that with a mid tier and talent franchise like Tampa, particularly one where Brady went to and won a Super Bowl.
The two are already compared and disputed as to who was more important so doubtful his ego would want to follow in Brady's footsteps
in terms of Dirk taking over for Lovie...i mean Canales taking over for Bowles, yeah i could see that as more likely but i think my scenario above makes logical sense (assuming a Bucs win over Carolina). Starting 2024 with Bowles and given the tough schedule, if we see a 2-6 start, go to Canales to see what's got for 8-9 games.
Giving Canales a 3 year head coaching contract when they are already on the hook for Bowles for another 3 years, when neither are likely guaranteed 100% slam dunk head coaching hires doesn't seem prudent
here's hoping the Bucs come to play Sunday and dont force the Glazers hands
I think Canales needs to work on continuing to develop as an OC. Just because you are a good OC doesn't make you a good HC as we Bucs fans are well aware from first hand experience. Just because Canales is doing a good job at OC doesn't mean he can then just jump right in and succeed at HC. It's a totally different job and it would take away from his attention to the offense. I'm not in favor of that option at all at this stage. Maybe in a couple years.
the Glazers may not be on that page. They think about the ticket sales and profile of the team.
All fair points but I am not sure the Glazers think about this that much only a few years removed from a Super Bowl, especially, and also many years now removed from their father's investment.
On top of that they sort of have their hands fill with ManU.
Maybe, but i doubt its so year to year with the Glazers. We went through five or six years of Gruden post-SB followed by a bunch of changes (one being Raheem Morris and that might be a model for Canales, as PR picked up in their article)
I imagine the Glazers had low expectations with a journeyman low-rent QB, and new O.C. who last called an offensive play in at the high school level. This team has performed much above what the rest of the league expected (some national power rankings had them 30th). Licht will have a huge job re-signing several of the players and deciding on Mayfield and David, Evans. I think the division opponents will only be better next season. Next year will be the make-or-break season for Bowles.
I think Canales needs to work on continuing to develop as an OC. Just because you are a good OC doesn't make you a good HC as we Bucs fans are well aware from first hand experience. Just because Canales is doing a good job at OC doesn't mean he can then just jump right in and succeed at HC. It's a totally different job and it would take away from his attention to the offense. I'm not in favor of that option at all at this stage. Maybe in a couple years.
well and if Canales is a good OC is another question. I still think he has alot to prove.
he doesn't change it up at all when things aren't going well.
fireLicht/Bowles shared an interesting twitter/x chart
the highest percent of new series of downs that have gone "run-run-dropback and pass" in 2023. Bucs lead the way with 29 drives nearly double that of league average
Bucs yard per game in the bottom 10 of the league overall
we average 87 yards a game on the ground, 2nd worst in the league despite ranking 23rd in the league in rushing attempts. In 2022, we had the league worst in rushing attempts, and you guessed it, league worst in 77 yards per game. So is the 10 more yards a game worth it? the answer is obviously No. Our stubbornness to abandon the run particularly when the team is trailing by 2-3 scores in the third quarter is borderline retarded behavior
is Canales better than Leftwich? Sure. but that shouldn't be the bar. I agree he has more maturing to go, just saying, given the coaching contract situation, upcoming schedule, and cap situation which i hope is better, could see them running it back with Bowles. Just saying, from a fan tolerance stand point, it would be much more tolerable with a Win on Sunday and Canales is more then capable of being an interim head coach if Bucs are sitting at 2-6 next year and season is loss (albeit at 2-6, we may only be a game out of the division lead!)
I imagine the Glazers had low expectations with a journeyman low-rent QB, and new O.C. who last called an offensive play in at the high school level. This team has performed much above what the rest of the league expected (some national power rankings had them 30th). Licht will have a huge job re-signing several of the players and deciding on Mayfield and David, Evans. I think the division opponents will only be better next season. Next year will be the make-or-break season for Bowles.
you hit the nail on the head. which makes me ask you - Does Bowles have to win Sunday to keep his job or has he already saved his job (in Glazers eyes) with 8 wins and a playoff miss?
I think Canales needs to work on continuing to develop as an OC. Just because you are a good OC doesn't make you a good HC as we Bucs fans are well aware from first hand experience. Just because Canales is doing a good job at OC doesn't mean he can then just jump right in and succeed at HC. It's a totally different job and it would take away from his attention to the offense. I'm not in favor of that option at all at this stage. Maybe in a couple years.
well and if Canales is a good OC is another question. I still think he has alot to prove.
he doesn't change it up at all when things aren't going well.
fireLicht/Bowles shared an interesting twitter/x chart
the highest percent of new series of downs that have gone "run-run-dropback and pass" in 2023. Bucs lead the way with 29 drives nearly double that of league average
Bucs yard per game in the bottom 10 of the league overall
we average 87 yards a game on the ground, 2nd worst in the league despite ranking 23rd in the league in rushing attempts. In 2022, we had the league worst in rushing attempts, and you guessed it, league worst in 77 yards per game. So is the 10 more yards a game worth it? the answer is obviously No. Our stubbornness to abandon the run particularly when the team is trailing by 2-3 scores in the third quarter is borderline retarded behavior
is Canales better than Leftwich? Sure. but that shouldn't be the bar. I agree he has more maturing to go, just saying, given the coaching contract situation, upcoming schedule, and cap situation which i hope is better, could see them running it back with Bowles. Just saying, from a fan tolerance stand point, it would be much more tolerable with a Win on Sunday and Canales is more then capable of being an interim head coach if Bucs are sitting at 2-6 next year and season is loss (albeit at 2-6, we may only be a game out of the division lead!)
I think the problem might be that many would maybe see Canales as a better HC than OC?
To begin, above being an OC he has his work specifically with QBs IN A LEAGUE where it means something to rehabilitate a QB. Easy to se some NUT like the Panther owner going after him. In addition, he has great coaching pedigree because he is a Carroll-trained guy, a decade being mentored by him.
He also comes across as a HC when you listen to him and that is primarily because of his relationship with players. Thats the connection to Raheem Morris. Perhaps a bad comparison because of the way it played out, but Raheem Morris was a charismatic coordinator beloved by players (to a fault) and so the owners (or at least the GM) saw his hiring as a HC as sort of an advance play, hiring him ahead of the curve. PR mentioned the same concept in an article today AND even the connection to Bowles, although that might be a reason we keep them BOTH together even if Bowles is less than deserving in some eyes.
I think the biggest thing Bowles might have going for him are the circumstances. Everyone -except a few RB members maybe lol - seem to understand that he was handed a team in transition and that transition is still ongoing. In fact, its exceeding expectations AND in part by things he controlled or had a big hand in like the hiring of Canales and the drafting of several player on D who seem to be shining (Kancey, Diaby etc.) and even Mayfield as apparently they go back a while. Most of the problems on D are SB hangover and age/injury guys that will likely get cleared out this offseason (part of the transition)
None of this is to say he is a great HC or even a good HC, its just an acknowledgment of the actual circumstances. Some of the "bright football minds" here were saying Bowles was dead after last season. He was NEVER getting fired after last season lol and for the same reasons (plus a few new ones) that he might make it to next season even with a playoff loss.
here’s how I see it
Bucs beat panthers and win a playoff game- odds bowles returns -100%
bucs beat panthers and lose playoff game - odds Bowles returns -90%; could see a small percentage if some dynamite candidate emerges
Bucs lose to the panthers, no excuse - odds Bowles returns -50% (yes, I think it’s a coin flip unfortunately)
Bucs lose to the panthers, no excuse - odds Bowles returns -50% (yes, I think it’s a coin flip unfortunately)
FWIW, Ira K says Bowles fired in this scenario. I am not some huge IRA fan, but he is very dialed in.
I think IRA's comments imply that getting to the playoffs provides enough cover to role with Bowles again
He definitely should be fired if they lose to the Panthers, but LaCanfora reports that an ugly playoff loss (last year's Dallas loss) would end it
Ownership [of the Bucs] has been mulling options for weeks, with Todd Bowles not assured of another season. And even if the Bucs make the playoffs, both GMs and the personnel executive I spoke with believe an ugly first-round exit could portend change.
I don't think it is a lock for Bowles to stay if he wins the NFCS but loses the first playoff game. I think there will be some meetings with the Glazers and both Licht and Bowles. The weakest part of the Bucs in 2022 was the offensive line. The weakest part of the 2023 Bucs is the offensive line. Licht and Bowles didn't address the O'line problem in the offseason. They drafted 1 IOL (Mauch) and signed another JAG to play RG. The O'Line is OK in pass rush protection, but absolutely dismal in run blocking. For Bowles and Licht to stay, they would have to agree to address the offensive line problems.
Win todays game and I think Bowles is safe.
The only correct answer is B. The last 2 seasons we have played in a historically bad division with the best roster in the division. We have also played a ridiculously opportunistic schedule with our opponents having much worse injuries to key players than the bucs had. Bowles has done the very least with the bucs record considering the actual circumstances. He does not deserve to be back. Last year should have been safely 10 wins and this year about the same. His in game coaching decisions alone have lost games for us . Stop letting the dog chase its tail. You are going nowhere with bowles. You could get just about any coach and keep canales and the record would be better.
I’m not convinced that walking away from Canales is a huge thing for the Glazers or necessarily Licht. As it was Canales was what the 7th coordinator that they interviewed ? He’s a very bright mind and for a first time play caller has shown positive signs, and is very likable but he still has a long way to go. I feel like if Monken was in play as HC this off-season the Glazers and Licht might hopefully pull the trigger. As for the notion that was suggested by SR and and some others about keeping Canales in place to take over as interim early next season if the wheels fall off. 1. Glazers have never fired a coach in season, so why think that would suddenly change ? 2. If the Glazers or Lichts faith in Bowles is that low that theyd hold onto a coach for that scenario, why wait to make a change ? That said Go Bucs, let’s take it to the kitties!
Win or lose vs the Panthers, I think Bowles stays another year, but his seat will be very HOT for the 2024 season. I give him credit for making some adjustments this offseason such as getting rid of alot of the staff he inherited from Arians. Canales fit his offensive philosophy like he wanted and has been a much better OC than Leftwhich.
I'd like to think Bowles also played a big role in the QB "competition" this offseason, and made the right call having full confidence in Baker since they brought him in.
In hindsight, I certainly did not expect the Bucs to have a competitive season like they have had this year. They play hard and have reduced alot of the penalties compared to last year.
Overall, I just don't think getting rid of Bowles would automatically make us a better football team. I don't think we would have a shot at a popular name guy like Harbaugh, Ben Johnson, etc. and bringing in an inexperienced guy with the way our roster is likely going to be constructed next year would have us struggling to find an identity and a winning sesason, imo - unless we promote Canales, but I don't think he's ready for HC job yet.
Licht needs to continue drafting well, clean up the dead money cap situation, and bring back/extend guys like Baker, Evans, Wirfs, Winfield, and Lavonte.
I'd like to see how much more Baker has left to give us with the stability of another year with Bowles/Canales and the supporting cast on the roster we have and can continue to build.
In 2024, if Baker/Bowles flops, we can clean house and cap situation should be better to build around an first-round QB draft pick.
